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PREDICT Science Workshop #1

8 - 10 June 2011
Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

PREDICT Science Workshop Participants
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PREDICT Workshop Participants (From L to R): Tim Dunkerton, Yi-Shuan Huang, Cody Fritz, Blake Rutherford, Saurabh Barve, Michael Montgomery, Paul Willis, Michael Bell, Carlos Lopez Carrillo, Roger Smith, John Sears, Mark Boothe, Brian Murphy, Sarah Monette, Ryan Torn, Kyle Griffin, Will Komaromi, Steve Williams, Chris Davis, Lance Bosart, Jørgen Jensen, and Sharan Majumdar.



Wednesday, 8 June 2011
9:00-9:20 Welcome Remarks & Experiment Summary M. Montgomery

Data Management and Special Observations
  Chairs: Chris Davis and Blake Rutherford

9:20-9:35 PREDICT Data Management Update and Issues S. Williams
9:35-10:40 PREDICT RAF GV DATA J. Jensen
(a) GNSS Instrument System for Multistatic and Occultation Sensing (GISMOS): Working towards moisture profiling of the large scale environment J. Haase
(b) The Microwave Temperature Profiler Data Set from PREDICT J. Haggerty
(c) PREDICT In Situ Ozone: Instrument Performance, Data Status, and Preliminary Observations T. Campos
(d) Microphysics and High Ice Water Content Events - PREDICT J. Jensen
(e) Instrumentation Discussion
10:40-11:00 Break
11:00-11:10 (f) Dropsonde Data Quality Control: PREDICT (Remote Presentation) J. Wang
11:10-11:40 Other supporting datasets: reanalysis, ozonesondes, etc. or discussion [Open]
11:40-12:00 Discussion
12:00-1:30 Lunch

PREDICT Perspectives
  Chairs: Jennifer Haase and Jørgen Jensen

1:30-2:00 PREDICT Perspectives: Overview of satellite data/products support and research C. Velden
PREDICT Near Real-Time and Science Satellite Data Products (Remote Presentation) J. Hawkins
2:00-2:30 Summary of NOAA's 2010 Hurricane Field Program (IFEX) (Remote Presentation) R. Rogers
2:30-2:50 NASA observations from GRIP E. Zipser and
M. Montgomery
2:50-3:10 Break
3:10-3:30 Pouch-tracking lessons learned and circulation characteristics of ex-Gaston, pre-Karl, and pre-Matthew as derived from the GV dropsondes M. Boothe
3:30-4:00 Overview of PREDICT Science Opportunities L. Bosart and
K. Griffin
4:00-6:00 Break
6:00 Dinner at NPS
7:30 Early Career Scientist Involvement in the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Field Experiment K. Griffin, J. Sears, and B. Tang
Thursday, 9 June

Process Studies Using Observations
  Chairs: Tim Dunkerton and Carlos Lopez

9:00-9:20 An Analysis of Developing and Non-developing Disturbances from PREDICT C. Davis, et al.
9:20-9:40 The role of Lagrangian Coherent Structures in development and non-development of tropical cyclones B. Rutherford and
M. Montgomery
9:40-10:00 Tropical cyclogenesis R. Smith and
M. Montgomery
10:00-10:20 Analysis of convective Overshooting Tops (OTs) within and near the pouch S. Monette and
C. Velden
10:20-10:40 Discussion
10:40-11:00 Break
11:00-11:20 Progress in the Analysis of PREDICT Data S. Gjorgjievska,
D. Raymond, and
C. Lopez Carrillo
11:20-11:40 Preliminary look at mesoscale dynamics of tropical cyclogenesis observed during PREDICT M. Bell and
M. Montgomery
11:40-12:00 Discussion
12:00-1:30 Lunch

Data Assimilation and Numerical Simulations
  Chairs: Michael Bell and Roger Smith

1:30-1:50 Tropical Cyclone Spin-up within a Wave Critical Layer (Remote Presentation) Z. Wang
1:50-2:10 Wave-Pouch diagnostics + satellite observations Revisited T. Dunkerton
2:10-2:30 Global model ensembles S. Majumdar
Comparison of PREDICT dropsonde missions to the PREDICT-mean profile and the Dunion (2008) non-SAL profile W. Komaromi
2:30-2:50 Discussion
2:50-3:10 Break
3:10-3:30 The Role of Initial Condition Errors in Danielle and Karl's Genesis Forecasts R. Torn
3:30-3:50 Dynamics and Predictability of the Formation of Hurricane Karl (2010) Revealed from Convection-Permitting Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting (Remote Presentation) F. Zhang, J. Poterjoy, D. Tao, Y. Weng and X. Ge
3:50-4:10 Understanding the Non-development Processes of Ex-Gaston (2010) C. Fritz and Z. Wang
4:10-4:30 Discussion and future directions related to global model analyses, forecasts and ensembles for tropical cyclogenesis
Meeting Adjourns
6:30 Dinner in town
Friday, 10 June

Predictability of Tropical Cyclogenesis
  Chairs: Sharan Majumdar and Ryan Torn

09:00-9:10 Observation Data Impact Studies for PREDICT with ECMWF model M. Montgomery, R. Smith, P. Bauer, and M. Miller
9:10-9:30 Assessing the predictability of the genesis of Tropical Storm Nicole (2010) W. Komaromi
09:30-10:00 Other presentations on predictability NHC FORECASTERS: J. Beven or C. Landsea
10:00-10:30 Discussion and future directions related to Numerical simulations and predictability
10:30-10:50 Break
10:50-12:00 General discussion addressing these questions:
(a) What have we learned?
(b) What can we learn?
(c) What do we need to do to learn it?
(d) What are the implications/outcomes of PREDICT likely to be?
(e) Collaborations and Future Directions
12:00-1:30 Lunch
1:30-2:00 Continued general discussion
2:00-3:00 Summaries and Discussion
3:00-4:00 Final Discussion of Issues and Future Directions for PREDICT
Meeting Adjourns

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