First Meeting of the MESA Science Working Group (SWG-1)

Mexico City, MX, 9-11 March, 2005



        (26 February 2005)


Wednesday 9 March 2005


2:00 pm          Objectives/Meeting Organization - Carolina Vera


Session 1:      Review of the scientific basis for MESA

Session 1a:    PRA-1: Diurnal and Mesoscale Variability in the SAMS region

                        Chair: Tercio Ambrizzi


2:20 pm           Rain-producing systems for the SAMS and their moisture sources - Ed Zipser

2:40 pm           The diurnal cycle of precipitation over South America based on CMORPH  - Vern Kousky.

3:00 pm           Soil moisture and the South American monsoon  Hugo Berbery

3:20 pm           Coupling between precipitation and the large scale flow on the diurnal cycle in the Amazon, sensitivity to ground wetness. -Rafael Terra


4:00 pm          Break


4:30 pm           An evaluation of the diurnal cycle over the SALLJEX region in models and observations. - C. Saulo et al.

4:50 pm          Plenary discussion about PRA-1 - Ed Zipser (moderator)



6:00 pm          Adjourn

Thursday 10 March 2005


Session 1b:   PRA-2: Intraseasonal variability in the SAMS region

                        Chair: Rafael Terra

8:30 am           Interannual and intraseasonal variability of extreme precipitation in Southeastern South America  - Leila Carvalho

8:50 am           Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its influence in South America  - Charles Jones

9:10 am           Modelled and Observed Intraseasonal Anomalies in the SAMS region . J. Nogues-Paegle, et al.

9:30 am           Local forcing and Intraseasonal Modulation of the South American Summer Monsoon: Soil Moisture, Sea Surface Temperature, and Topography.  - A. Grimm


9:50 am           Break


10:10 am        Intraseasonal variability and model forecasting skill in the monsoon area of S. America - Pedro L. Silva Dias, J. Aravequia, M. Schneider

10:30 am        Plenary discussion about PRA-2 - Julia Nogues-Paegle (Moderator)


12:10 pm        Lunch


Session 3:      PRA-3: Interannual and longer-time variability in the SAMS region.

                        Chair: Leila Carvalho

1:30 pm          The main moisture flux sources for SAMS and evolution of the system.  - Iracema Cavalcanti

1:50 pm           Dominant large-scale patterns influencing the seasonal predictability of precipitation over South America. - C. Vera and G. Silvestri

2:10 pm           Interannual response to SST over SA in the COLA model  - J. Nogues-Paegle et al.

2:30 pm          Inter-El Niño variability and its impact on the LLJ East of the Andes during Austral Summer. Tercio Ambrizzi.


2:50 pm          Break


3:10 pm          Trends in Observed Seasonal Precipitation.  Brant Liebmann.

3:50 pm          Relative role of Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies in streamflow variability in the São Francisco River. - Andrea Cardoso and P. L. Silva Dias

4:10 pm          Plenary discussion about PRA-3 - Pedro Silva Dias (moderator)

5:30 pm          Adjourn

Friday 11 March 2005


Session 2:     Additional MESA Modeling issues

                        Chair: Brant Liebmann

8:30 am          Summary of the MESA Modeling related activities discussed in VPM8 - Iracema Cavalcanti, C. Saulo.

8:50 am          Prediction and predictability of the SAMS on seasonal to interannual timescales. - J. Marengo et al

9:10 am          Improvement in model predictability in the monsoon area of S. America: impact of a simple super-model ensemble.- Pedro L. Silva Dias, Demerval S. Moreira.


9:30 am          Break


9:50 am           Evaluation of Nested Regional Model Ensemble Climatology for South America: Annual Cycle, Interannual variability, and Rainy Season Onset  - A. Seth, S. Rauscher and B. Liebmann

10:10 am        An analysis of the hydrological cycle spin-up time in seasonal forecasting in tropical S. America - H.Camargo, Pedro L. Silva Dias

10:30 am        Issues for ocean modeling in the South Atlantic - Ricardo Matano

10:50 am        Discussion: Summary and recommendations for MESA modeling - Celeste Saulo (Moderator)

          am        Modeling in VAMOS


Session 3:      MESA Applications


11:40 am        PLATIN & LPB-CSE: The Hydrometeorology component of MESA - Pedro Silva Dias, Roberto Mechoso.

12:00 pm        Lunch


Session 4:      Enhanced observation activities & Field campaigns in MESA


1:30 pm          Interannual and Interdecadal Variability Observed in the Tropcial Glacier Studies - Ramirez E. Hoffmann et al

1:50 pm          "Straw Man" Conceptual Design for a LPB Field Experiment - Dennis Lettenmaier

2:10 pm          La Plata Basin Climate and Hydrology Report - P. Silva Dias

2:30 pm          Presentations and open discussion - E Hugo Berbery (moderator)

        pm          Suggested Project - Enhancement of Sustained Surface and Subsurface Observations in the Western Subtropical South Atlantic


3:00 pm          Break


Session 5:      MESA SWG Executive Session

                        Chair: Carolina Vera


3:30 pm          Executive Session (SWG)

                        - MESA implementation plan and MESA milestones: Action assignments

                        - SWG Member rotation

                        - MESA timeline; Next meeting

5:30 pm          Adjourn