VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 7 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO
TARGET AREA:  ERN TX PANHANDLE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: 18/21Z SNDGS FM
ALL UPR AIR SITES. ALL 88DS SHUD BE UP ON ARCHIVE II 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:
HI PROBABILITIES FOR DAY1 BELIE DIFFICULTY IN PLANNING
FIELD OPS TDA. AVBL INSTBY/SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS 
AND PSBLY STG TORNADOES, BUT VORTEX ISSUES INCLD RPD SPEED 
OF STRMS, EFFECTS OF ONGOING CONVCTN, AND WHERE BEST AREA FOR
TARGET STRM INIT WL BE. ATTM WE ARE LEANING TWD BEST SHOT NR
NE-SW BNDRY WHICH HAS BCM QSTNRY ACRS EXTRM NWRN OK AND NRN 
TX PNHDL. LL DIR SHEAR EXPCD TO BE MORE FVBL NR BNDRY, AS SFC
WNDS RMN MORE BACKED ACRS NRN SECTIONS. OTRW WE ARE CONCERNED 
WITH RELTV LACK OF DIR SHEAR, AS UPR JET BACKS TO SLY AND 
WNDS BCM MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. THIS SHUD BE COMPENSATED FOR BY
STRENGTH OF WND FIELDS, AND ANY LCL BACKING OF BNDRY LYR 
FLOW. OTR PSBLTY, AS ALWAYS, IS SWD ALG DRYLN WHICH IS EXPCD
TO PUNCH EWD INTO ERN TX PNHDL THIS AFTN. OPTIMUM CHCS ATTM
APR TO BE INVOF RESULTG TRPL PT, ACRS NERN TX PNHDL, WITH 
HIEST TORNADIC POTL WORKING INTO NWRN OK AND PSBLY S CNTRL 
KS. TEAMS WL HEAD W FOR CONVCTV INIT VCNTY WRN OK BRDR OR
ERN TX PNHDL, BUT RPD STRM MOTION MAKES TDA LKLY A ONE-SHOT
EFFORT AS FAR AS TORNADO INTERCEPT. LACK OF CAP ALSO WL MAKE 
FOR EARLY DVLPMT, WTH 15Z LBB SNDG INDC 2 DEGS FM CONVCTV 
TEMP AND A STRM WITH SUPERCELL POTL ALREADY DVLPG IN TX PNHDL.

SOME SLGT POTL VRY EARLY ON DAY2 IN EXTRM ERN PART OF VORTEX
AREA, AND IN FACT SVR MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z. FOCUS, HOWVR
IS ON TODAYS SHOW. MUCH OF AREA MAY BE RAKED BY STG WNDS AND
PSBLY BLWG DUST ON MON AS STEMWINDER DVLPS OVR KS. BRANICK

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100      60
SEVERE                     100      40
TORNADOES                   90      10
TARGETABLE STORM            98      20

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             21045   23548
SUPERCELL                 24530   26533

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1100L   1000L 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1110L   1030L
1ST TORNADO               1145L   1115L