VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 6 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO
TARGET AREA:  NW TX
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: 18/21Z sndgs requested 
from all VORTEX sites except TOP. Archive II requested from
all 88D sites. 

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:
RECOVERY OF AMS EXPCD THIS AFTN OVR W TX BHD MCS CRNTLY MOVG
THRU OK/NRN TX. 15Z SFC ANAL INDCS SFC BNDRY LIFTG NWD TWD
W TX, HAVING PASSED MAF. MSTR/INSTBY EXPCD TO RTN NWD/NWWD
INTO NW TX, SETTING UP DRYLN N-S OVR EXTRM WRN TX. RECOVERY
AND DESTABILIZATION OF AMS EXPCD TO BE RAPID, AS LACK OF CI 
UPSTRM AND EROSION OF CRNT LOW CLDS RESULTS IN STG DIURNAL
HTG. DVLPMT EXPCD BY MIDAFTN NR WMFNT/DRYLN INTRSXN, WHICH
IS EXPCD TO BE BTWN LBB-CDS-ABI. OTR DVLPMT LKLY SWD ALG 
DRYLN INTO SWRN TX, AND NWD THRU TX PNHDL INTO SWRN KS. WE WL
BE MONITORING WRN KS AREA ALSO FOR SUPERCELL POTL. ALTHO RTN
OF DEEPER MSTR AND STG INSTBY IS LESS LKLY FRTHR N, WRN KS 
AREA WL BE UNDER MORE FVBL JET DYNAMICS AND THUS VRY FVBL 
SHEAR - ESPLY IF LL WNDS CAN STAY BACKED. ARMADA PLANS TO 
HEAD W INITIALLY AND MAINTAIN OPTIONS N OR S FM TX PNHDL.

SUN LOOKS POTENT AS POWERHOUSE NEG-TILT SYS SWINGS INTO
PLAINS AND DRYLN PUNCHES EWD INTO KS/OK. BACKING OF UPR FLOW
TO SLY MAY WKN SHEAR AND PREVENT COUPLING OF STG UPR AND LL
JETS, THUS RESULTING IN MORE OF A SQLN SCENARIO AS POTENT 
DYNAMIC FORCING IMPINGES ON SFC BNDRY. WDSPRD CONVCTN EXPCD WL REDUCEWL HEAD W
TO OVRSPRD MUCH OF AREA TNGT IN RESPONSE TO STG LL JET AS
HI PLAINS ACTVTY SPRDS EWD. EFFECTS OF THIS CONVCTN WL LKLY
PLAY A BIG ROLE ON WHERE, WHEN, AND IF ON DAY 2. ATTM TEND
TO FAVOR CNTRL KS ON DAY2 AS NGM (00Z RUN) PROGS EXTRM 
INSTBY THERE AND CONVCTV MODIFICATION IS LESS LKLY.

BRANICK/CRISP 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100     100
SEVERE                     100     100
TORNADOES                   70      60
TARGETABLE STORM            80      70

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             22040   21048
SUPERCELL                 25028   24535

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1400L   1300L 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1445L   1400L
1ST TORNADO               1530L   1430L