VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MAY 31 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO
TARGET AREA:  NONE
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  NONE.

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: ATTN FOCUSED ON CNTRL/NCNTRL TX
WHERE FVBL SHEAR AND INSTBY FCST TO COME TOGETHER THIS AFTN/
EVE, BUT CRNT CONVCTN AND WK LL FEATURES MAKE IT TUFF TO 
FOCUS ON A TARGET AREA WTH CONFIDENCE. SFC ANAL INDCS WK E-W
FNTL ZN ACRS NRN TX WITH WKLY-DEFINED DRYLN HANGING BACK WELL
INTO W TX AND ERN NM. CRNT CONVCTN NWRN TX EXPCD TO ROLL ESEWD
AND REINFORCE E-W FNT. MUCH OF CNTRL TX S OF FNT EXPCD TO 
DESTABILIZE DURG DAY WITH DIURNAL HTG, YIELDING LIS OF -6 TO
-10 AND CAPES 2500-3000. FVBL SHEAR AND FORCING WL COME FM
WELL-DEFINED NWLY UPR SPEED MAX PROGGED TO NR SERN CRNR NM 
BY 00Z. DVRG ALF ASSOCD WTH LEFT EXIT RGN OF JET WL BE OVR
CNTRL TX, WHILE JET PROVIDES FVBL SPEED/DIR SHEAR AT MID 
LVLS. CRNT ACTVTY MAY TEND TO WKN THRU MIDDAY AS CAP DVLPS
IN RESPONSE TO SUBSDNC BHD DEPARTING SHTWV, BUT 2ND IMPL
PROGGED SEWD INTO W TX THIS EVE EXPCD TO REDVLP CONVCTN W
OF CRNT ACTVTY, WHICH THEN WUD ROLL SEWD NR SFC FNT. WK LLJ
ALSO PROGGED NWD INTO THIS AREA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
LOCN/STRENGTH OF LL FEATURES THIS AFTN, AREA OF HIER POTL
IS BROAD, EXTDG FM CNTRL/SRN OK - WHERE RUC FCSTS BNDRY TO 
LIFT NEWD THIS EVE - SWWD TO VCNTY SJT WHERE UPR JET AXIS
IS PROGGED TO INTRSECT INSTBY AXIS. HIER TORNADO POTL APRS 
TO BE OVR SRN PART OF THIS AREA WHERE SHEAR IS BETTER, WITH 
MAX NR ABI-MWL AREAS ATTM, BUT GREATEST POTL MAY SHIFT SWD 
AND THUS OUT OF VORTEX AREA SHUD CRNT ACTVTY TURN MORE SEWD.

DAY 2 HAS SOME POTL OVR NERN TX/SERN OK WHERE AMS FCST TO
RMN QUITE UNSTBL AHD OF CDFNT/DRYLN. NEG FACTOR IS LACK OF
UPR SUPPORT AS TROF AXIS MOVS INTO AR/LA BY EVE AND LEAVES
TX/OK IN SUBSDNC. HOWVR, FVBL SHEAR AND INSTBY IN MOIST
AXIS PROGGED AHD OF FNT SUGGESTS THU MAY BE A SLEEPER IF
LL CONVGC CAN OVERCOME SUBSDNC AND CAP CAN BE BROKEN.
BRANICK/VESCIO

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   100     100
SEVERE                       90      60
TORNADOES                    60      40
TARGETABLE STORM             70      50

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             28024   29028
SUPERCELL                 32017   33020

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1130    1300 
1ST SEVERE RPT             1200    1345
1ST TORNADO                1400    1500