Potential Skill (red)-
Based on statistical and dynamical model forecasts using perfect SSTs.
Current Skill (green)
Research will narrow the gap between current skill (green) and what is possible (red)
2nd coldest Nov-Dec
in observed record.
Forecast cold, obs warm
Cold summer bucks trend
La Nina
El Nino
Temperature
Anomaly correlation
SKILL
Obs=trend, W
W. cold, large
mo-mo variability
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