NAME 2004 Data Analysis and
Seventh
Science
Working Group Meeting (SWG-7)
NAME Science Working Group
Panel Report from the NAME 2004 Data
Analysis Meeting and Seventh
NAME Science Working Group Meeting (SWG-7)
March 9-11, 2005
Mexico City, MX
______________________________________________________________________________
April
2005
Table of Contents
1.2 NAME 2004 Field
Observations
1.6
Plans for using NAME 2004 Data in Modeling
2. NAME 2004 Value Added
Products
3. NAME Program Synthesis
Products
Appendix A. Words of Welcome for NAME, MESA and VOCALS
Appendix C. Contact Information
The
expected
outcome of the NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 meeting is a report that
summarizes
(i) the contents of the NAME 2004 data set, including dates of
deliverables;
(ii) NAME 2004 value added products; (iii) the strategy for post NAME
2004
modeling and data assimilation activities to improve simulations and
predictions
of warm season precipitation with coupled climate models; and (iv) a
list of
"Synthesis Products" that are expected to emerge from NAME and the
plans for achieving them.
This report discusses progress on these items. It includes a list of ACTION items and summaries of the oral presentations. The Meeting Agenda, which was organized into six sessions (NAME 2004 overview; NAME 2004 Field Observations; NAME Diagnostic Studies; SWG-7 Executive Session; NAME Applications; Plans for using NAME 2004 Data in Modeling ) is given in Appendix B. The Agenda and presentations are also available on the NAME webpage: www.eol.ucar.edu/projectsprojects//name/dm/NAME_data_agenda.html
Special
thanks are extended to our sponsors [OGP / CPPA (Jin Huang, Mike Patterson), US
CLIVAR (David Legler), WCRP (Valery Detemmerman, Howard Cattle)], our
local
hosts [SMN (Miguel Cortez, Michel Rosengaus)] and those who provided
logistical
support for the meeting [ SMN ( Miguel Cortez), NCAR/EOL
(Gus Emmanuel, José Meitín), UCAR (Gene Martin,
Tara Jay), WCRP (Carlos Ereño)
The following
Action Items resulted
from the NAME 2004 Data Analysis and Seventh NAME Science Working Group
(SWG-7)
Meeting. They are organized into
several categories: Documentation; Datasets; Modeling and Applications;
Publications;
Education Module; Meetings; and SWG Rotation. NAME
SWG members, and NAME PIs are expected to contribute to
the completion of these Actions.
Documentation
Action 1
Prepare
and distribute NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 Meeting Report (Higgins and
SWG).
Action 2
Update
and disseminate NAME Science and Implementation Plan (Higgins and SWG).
Action 3
Develop a list of NAME
“Synthesis Products” that are expected to emerge from NAME and the
plans for
achieving them (SWG)
Action 4 Revise
NAME milestones to make NAME Tier 3 activities more visible and
explicit
Datasets
Action
5
Evaluate
progress on the development of the NAME post-field phase data set,
including
dates of deliverables (SWG)
Action 6
Evaluate progress on NAME 2004 value added
products
(SWG)
Modeling and
Applications
Action 7 Update
strategy in NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation “White Paper” (Mo, SWG)
Action 8
Establish protocols,
expand participation and carry
out NAMAP2 (Gutzler, Mo, Schemm, Shi, Higgins).
Publications
Action 9
Publish an article
entitled “The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) 2004 Field
Campaign and
Modeling Strategy” in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society (Higgins, SWG, NAME
PIs).
Action 10
Contribute
to a Special Issue of the Journal of Climate on NAME (SWG, PIs).
Education Module
Action 11
Release "beta-version" of NAME “Reports to
the Nation” monograph at the NOAA booth during the March 31-April 3
National
Science Teachers Association (NSTA) Annual Conference in Dallas
Texas.
Distribute Questionaire for teachers to evaluate the document (OGP)
Action 12
Hold focused workshop
in Tucson, AZ during the summer of 2005
inviting
teachers that responded to the questionnaire (Action 1.10) in order to
solicit
more specific input on the use of the NAM Monograph and the lesson
plans being
developed by Steve Uyeda (OGP)
Action 13 Post photos from NAME 2004 on the NCAR/EOl web site so that they can be incorporated into the NAME “Reports to the Nation” monograph.
Action 14 Work with Steve Uyeda to complete remaining 6 of 10 lesson plans for NAME
curriculum unit.
Action 15
Hold NAME Session at
March 2006 NSTA Annual Conference
focused on the North American Monsoon Presentations by NAME scientists.
Walk
through the education materials
Meetings
Action 16
Coordinate the Eighth NAME Science
Working Group Meeting with the 9th VAMOS Panel Meeting in
Foz do
Iguazu, Brazil (March 2006).
Action 17
Coordinate future NAME SWG meetings
with VAMOS Panel Meetings (Higgins, SWG).
Action 18
Organize
a Special Session on NAME 2004 and NAME Modeling Activities at 30th
Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, State College PA (24-28
October,
2005).
SWG Rotation
Action 19 Carry out the NAME SWG 2005 membership
rotation
(Higgins, SWG)
Action 20 Modify ToR for rotation of the NAME SWG chair
(SWG)
Dr.
Miguel Cortez opened the NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 meeting by
welcoming everyone and making everyone feel at home.
Everyone agreed that the facilities were excellent and
appreciated the attention to detail by the SMN.
Dr.
Michel Rosengaus, Director of the SMN, discussed why the North
American monsoon is important for the National Water Commission of
Mexico (the
CNA). He also prepared a speech
(delivered at the 8th VAMOS Panel meeting earlier in the
week) that
poignantly describes his interactions with the CNA, with emphasis on
user needs
for improved North American warm season precipitation forecasts. A copy of Dr. Rosengaus’s speech is
found in Appendix A.
Wayne
Higgins also welcomed
everyone to the meeting, and provided special thanks to the local hosts. He discussed the goal of the meeting, which
was to
bring together the participants from
NAME 2004 and those intending to use the NAME 2004 data in follow-on
modeling
and prediction activities aimed at accelerating improvements in warm
season
precipitation forecasts, products and applications. Higgins also
discussed the
expected outcome of the meeting, which included this meeting report
(see
section 1.4 for details). Next Higgins
presented a tribute to all of the NAME 2004 participants, which
literally
numbered into the hundreds. Finally,
Higgins concluded his presentation by dedicating the meeting to Dr.
Gandikota
V. Rao (1934-2004).
1.1 NAME 2004 Overview (Chair:
A. Douglas)
The
introductory comments were followed by a short overview session that
provided
general information on NAME 2004, the NAME Forecast Operations Center,
and NAME
Project Office activities, including the NAME field data catalog and
data
management. Much of this
information has been presented in earlier SWG meetings and SWG meeting
reports
(see the NAME webpage). A few key
details are summarized below.
Title: NAME 2004
Overview
Author: W.
Higgins, CPC
This talk
summarized the
various activities of NAME.
Higgins stressed that NAME activities have been formulated to
improve
our physical understanding of the monsoon in southwestern North America
and to
determine the degree of predictability of warm season precipitation
through
critical areas of North America.
Perhaps the most unique characteristic of the program, aside
from its joint
CLIVAR-GEWEX heritage, is that NAME modeling and field activities have
been
planned in tandem. NAME 2004
enhanced observations were motivated, in part, by model assessment
activities
(such as NAMAP) in advance of the field campaign. This
rich data set will continue to be employed in modeling
and data assimilation studies towards improved understanding and more
realistic
simulations of the monsoon. These
efforts are especially germane to the new NOAA Climate Test Bed
initiative. Given the high
temporal resolution of the NAME data sets, the diurnal cycle should now
be
resolved more accurately and this in turn should lead to a better
understanding
of prediction problems associated with the NAM.
More than 30
universities and
government laboratories in the U.S., Mexico, Belize and Costa Rica
participated
in the NAME 2004 field experiment.
A host of equipment was supported by NAME (see the NCAR/EOL/NAME
website for
the field and data catalogs).
NAME Intensive Observing Periods (IOPs) were aimed at sampling a
number
of key synoptic and mesoscale features that are typical of the monsoon
in
Northwest Mexico, including (1) monsoon onset, (2) low-level
circulations
associated with MCCs, outflow boundaries and gulf surges, (3) broad
scale
moisture transport associated with easterly waves and tropical storms,
and (4)
rainfall patterns and variability across the NAME domain.
Nine successful Intensive Observing
Periods (IOPs) aimed at these features were called in July and August
and a
tenth IOP was called in September to observe the landfall of Hurricane
Javier.
NAME leaves a template for future observing systems that might be designed for monitoring the NAM. The data sets provides the research community with a more comprehensive understanding of climate variability and predictability across the NAM region. The experiment has strengthened international collaboration across Pan America, especially between participating operational and research groups. The NAME modeling strategy provides a template for improved simulations and predictions of the monsoon system and its variability with coupled models.
Title: NAME 2004
Forecast
Operations Center
Author: E. Pytlak
Erik Pytlak
presented an
overview of the NAME Forecast Operations Center. The
success of the center during the NAME 2004 Field
Campaign can be attributed to the practice forecasting that took place
during
the summer of 2003. Bob Maddox
arranged for a practice “run” of forecasting during this period. Kinks were ironed out relative to the
development of forecast zones in Tier I, class limit guidance for the
forecast
zones (to aid forecasters with little experience in forecasting monsoon
precipitation in Mexico) and zone verification procedures.
Key synoptic features or events that
might be forecast during NAME were also determined during the practice
forecast
period. During the practice run, ties were developed with CPC, SPC, NHC
and the
SMN. This helped to develop
logistics for daily briefings between these centers.
A number of forecaster exchanges also took place in 2003
between NWS and SMN personnel which helped to build knowledge and
promote
confidence in the joint forecast activities that took place in 2004.
Pytlak noted that
the wet
bias of the forecasts in 2003 was not as evident in 2004 and the
overall skill
scores of the forecasters improved in 2004. It
was felt that real-time verification efforts aided the
shift forecasters. The 5-day
rotation period was somewhat short for the 32 FOC forecasters, but this
rotation was unavoidable given constraints on NWS forecasters. A number of forecasters participated in
a daily remote forecasting exercise via the NCAR/EOL/NAME webpage. It was noted that this type of remote
forecast project appears to have value and should be considered in
future field
projects. Differences were noted
in 2004 verification efforts when comparing station data forecast zone
mean
rainfall to the grid point derived forecast zone means.
Pytlak noted that a number of field
offices are now
conducting research on synoptic features that were key to the NAME
field
experiment and some of these projects include: research on inverted
troughs,
backdoor cold fronts, and flash flood signatures in New Mexico.
Challenges for the
FOC
included difficulties with real time verification, and a language
barrier
between Spanish and English speaking forecasters. As
the field experiment began to wind down (IOP days being
used up) the number of remote forecasters decreased though the forecast
center
remained in full operation to support the tenth IOP during
mid-September.
Title: NAME 2004
Project
Office Activities
Author: C.B. Emmanuel
Gus Emmanuel
presented an overview
of NAME 2004 Field support by the VAMOS Project Office.
The project office coordinated
procurement of science permits, customs clearances and shipping of
instrumentation into Mexico.
Emmanuel noted that the SMN office and the American Embassy were
helpful
in last minute efforts to secure permits and to get equipment across
the
border. The office also assisted
in the set up of the WP-3D site, and coordinated participation of the
Mexican
Navy ship Altair during
the
campaign. The project office helped
coordinate Forecast Operations Center activities in Tucson and the
aircraft operations
center in Mazatlan. A series of
pre-field experiment meetings were also coordinated through NCAR/EOL. Current NAME efforts are focused on the
archival and quality control of NAME 2004 observations.
Title: NAME 2004
Field
Data Catalog / Data Management Activities
Authors: J.
Meitín, S.
Loehrer and L. Cully
José Meitín gave an
overview
of the NAME 2004 Field Catalog maintained at NCAR/EOL.
To date, NCAR/EOL has archived over 150,000 products associated
with the NAME field experiment.
Major data sets include NAME field and operations reports and
products,
model data sets, research project and mission tables, CPC verification
products,
NCEP operational analyses, observed precipitation data sets and
satellite data
sets. Meitín showed several examples
of data sets and graphics that are currently available, including S-Pol
radar
data, SMN radar data with digitizers, CSU profiler data, and Vaisala
low
frequency lightning data at 5 minute intervals. NCAR/EOL
is currently developing the metadata associated with
the instrument sites and the quality control of the data sets.
NCAR/EOL data
management was also
instrumental in procuring data via ftp links to other servers (e.g. SST
data
sets, Quicksat winds). Numerous
upper air datasets are archived (SMN countrywide radiosonde network,
NWS
network in the Southwestern U.S., the ISS (Glass) sites along the Gulf,
Belize
City (Belize), San José (Costa Rica), Phoenix (Salt River Project) and
Yuma
Proving Grounds). Surface data
from the SMN (observatories, airports and automatic station sties) and
the US
Mesonets are also being archived for NAME. Meitín
presented a detailed day-by-day overview of data set
inventories for the NAME experiment (June 1-September 30, 2004) and
prominent
spikes in the quantity of data available are noted for all of the IOPs
during
NAME. It was stressed that PIs
need to follow the guidelines for submitting data to NCAR/EOL in order to
have
standard metadata formats for the field data sets and to help maintain
usable
data formats for the scientific community.
High resolution
radiosonde
data are now on line from the RV Altair,
NWS sties, Phoenix, San José
(Costa
Rica), and from the NCAR/EOL ISS and Glass sites. NCAR/EOL
is currently working on the radiosonde data from the
SMN and Belize. The
NOAA/NSSL Pibal data sets and tethersonde data sets from Tesopaco are
not
available yet. During the meeting
Victor Magaña provided NCAR/EOL with high resolution rawinsonde, pibal and
tethersonde data collected from the RV El Puma. In all,
NCAR/EOL collected almost 6,000 high resolution soundings from 31 platforms. NCAR/EOL is still trying to work with the
SMN on securing the Mexican Navy’s data set from 16 operational sites
in
coastal Mexico. NCAR/EOL will also
procure the GPS PW data sets processed for the NAME Tier I region by
the
University of Arizona. Additional
post-processing efforts include a 5mb upper air data set (CSU and Pibal
data
sets), a surface composite data set (hourly and daily) and a
precipitation data
set (updated data as well as new data).
1.2 NAME 2004 Field
Observations (Chair:
D. Gochis)
Session 2 focused on the current status of NAME 2004 Field
Observations. Thirteen
investigators made presentations on their activities during NAME 2004
and their
ongoing efforts to process, quality control (QC) and analyze the data. All investigators were asked to
estimate when their data would be uploaded to the NCAR/EOL NAME data
archive
(www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name); this information is included in the summaries
of each
presentation below.
Title: NAME
enhanced sounding
network: Performance and results.
Authors: Paul
Ciesielski
and Richard Johnson, Colorado State University (CSU)
A brief overview of
the
operational, real-time sounding network was provided.
While this included operational soundings from the U.S. NWS
and Mexico SMN, emphasis was placed on the data collected at the NCAR
Integrated Sounding System (ISS) sites at Puerto Peñasco, Kino Bay and
Los
Mochis as well as the NCAR GLASS site at Loreto. Sounding
data from the RV Altair was also discussed. Limited
QC was performed in real-time and the available data were objectively
analyzed
onto a (lon,lat)=(1°x1°) grid at 25 mb pressure intervals.
All products are available as images on
a CSU website linked to the NAME Field Data Catalog together with
inventories
of reporting stations. The
sounding analysis system ran for 46 days and missing soundings
accounted for
about 4% of the total number of planned soundings.
Ongoing planned activities include a comprehensive QC of all
of the enhanced sounding data, and development of a final version of
the
gridded analyses at various spatial and temporal resolutions for
different
domains within the NAME region, with particular emphasis on the budget
hexagon
in the central-southern Gulf of California. These research-quality
gridded
analyses will use rawinsonde data, and whenever possible, pibal
soundings,
profiler winds, Quikscat surface winds and aircraft data.
Preliminary diagnostic analyses
averaged over the enhanced budget array highlighted large differences
between
continental and maritime averaged profiles. The
quality-controlled individual sounding data at 5-mb
vertical resolution is expected to be ready by early-summer with the
complete
gridded products to follow within 3 to 6 months.
Title: NWS &
SMN
soundings and SMN participation
Authors: Art
Douglas,
Creighton University and Miguel Cortez, SMN
SMN is currently
securing all
radiosonde data from SMN sites in Mexico from 15 June – 3 Sept. (Note:
Budget
cuts to SMN in FY05 may curtail soundings at several sites during the
summer of
2005. These sites include Cancun,
Zacatecas, Isla Socorro, Torreon, Guadalajara and Guaymas/Empalme). In addition to soundings, surface
meteorology was collected at several SMN automated weather station
sites and
are to be integrated into the NAME data archive. A
special observing network of temperature and relative
humidity sensors was deployed in conjunction with NERN activities. These special sites, when combined with
NERN data provide temperature (T), dewpoint temperature (Td) and
precipitation
measurements every 30 min, thus allowing for reasonable representation
of the
diurnal cycle. Preliminary
diagnostics showed a dramatic increase of Td coincident with the onset
of the
monsoon at Mazocauhui, Sonora from -8°C to 16°C. Other
features such as the passage of Mesoscale Convective Complexes
(MCCs) could also be detected and analyzed from the T/Td-precipitation
observing sites. A negative
correlation between surface temperature and day of year (DOY) was noted
which
was thought to be heavily influenced by the ‘green-up’ of the regional
vegetation as evidenced by animations of a remotely sensed Normalized
Ddifferential
Vegetation Index (NDVI). This
relationship seemed to be most evident along the low elevations west of
the
Sierra Madre Occidental and towards the drier eastern side while the
steep
escarpment and high elevation pine forest regions showed little
correlation. It was also noted
that the remnants of hurricane Javier dropped very large amounts of
rain in the
Tier 1 region during mid-September.
Rainfall data from the SMN and CNA sites is being integrated
within the
GASIR inventory. A preliminary
analysis of this station data versus the operational CPC gridded
product revealed
a propensity for the CPC product to overestimate low elevation
precipitation
along the coastal regions and to underestimate precipitation along the
high
elevation terrain. Data from the
T/Td network, the SMN automated weather stations and the GASIR
raingauge
archive should be available on the NCAR/EOL website within 1-2 weeks.
Title: PIBAL
network/ and
special raingauge measurements
Author: Michael
Douglas,
NOAA-NSSL
The PIBAL network
consisted
of a nested implementation of one network (‘vegetation network’, 7
sites), to
observe the structure of the atmosphere around the central-southern
Gulf of
California region, while the larger network (‘synoptic network’, 23
sites)
encompassed nearly all of NAME Tier I.
The synoptic network was operated for approximately 4 months
from June
through September. The vegetation
network operated with increased frequency to capture the diurnal cycle
during
daylight hours. On average approximately
30 observations were taken a day among the different sites. Preliminary diagnostics from the 12-13
July IOP were shown. Time-height
cross-sections showed southeasterly morning average winds at Hermosillo
at
about 300m AGL while afternoon winds showed a much stronger inland wind
component.
Similar behavior present at 500m AGL.
Data from the vegetation flux network, consisting of a large
deployment
of simple wedge-accumulation raingauges, showed that there is a
difference in
the month when the maximum amount of precipitation occurred with inland
sites
peaking in July and coastal sites peaking in August.
Tethersonde measurements, made at Tezopaco, Sonora are
currently being processed.
Graphics of data from the PIBALS are currently available on the
NSSL
PACS sonnet website. Data from the
PIBALS are expected to be delivered to NCAR/EOL in approximately 2 months
while the
tethersonde data are expected in approximately 3 months.
Title: Research
aircraft
operations and results
Author: Michael
Douglas,
NOAA-NSSL
Aircraft operations
during
the 2004 field campaign were primarily focused on mesoscale and
synoptic scale
aspects of the thermodynamic structure over the Gulf of California. Seventy research hours were allocated
into 10 flights of approximately 7 hours each. The
stated program objectives were to obtain better moisture
flux estimates (or dry air intrusions) intruding on the Gulf of
California from
the Eastern Pacific, better measurement of the GoC low level jet (LLJ),
genesis
conditions for gulf surges, the land-sea breeze along the eastern coast
of the
GoC and the planetary boundary layer structure over the Gulf and
adjacent
coastal plain. Flights were nearly
always done in a continuous porpoising mode varying in altitude from
150 m to
2-3 km ASL. Continuous NW flow was
observed off the west coast of Baja California and these observations
should
help in the development of an integrated lower troposphere moisture
flux
analysis product. Some flight legs
were repeated to capture multiple samples from a particular site of
interest
such as the central gulf region.
Both enhanced and depressed precipitation days were sampled with
flight
missions. Future activities
include several kinds of diagnostic studies of features such as the LLJ
and
surge genesis. Aircraft data
should also be useful in validating model output. One
preliminary conclusion was that the LLJ winds appeared
to be strongest over the center of the Gulf of California away from
topography indicating
that the jet does not appear to be generated by classical ‘terrain
slope-jet’
dynamics. Graphics of data from
the flights are currently available on the NSSL website and in the NCAR/EOL
Field
Data catalog and the data are already available at NCAR/EOL.
Title: Overview
of
wind/flux/radiation observations at the ETL/AL flux site:
Author: Leslie
Hartten:
CIRES-Univ. of Colorado and NOAA Aeronomy Lab
Dynamical and
thermodynamical
data from the NOAA supersite near Estacion Obispo, Sinaloa were
collected
during NAME 2004. Planned
re-deployments of the supersite during 2005 and 2006 should help bound
the 2004
measurements and provide a crude estimate of interannual variability. The site was located 145 km NNW of
Mazatlan, approximately 25 km from both the coast of the Gulf of
California and
the foothills of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Data
from the site included soil temperature and soil
moisture, net radiation, soil heat flux, surface meteorology and eddy
covariance heat and moisture fluxes, 915–MHz wind and virtual
temperature
profiles, and GPS precipitable water.
A 449-MHz profiler, deployed for precipitation characterization,
was
also operated in a wind mode, but there were some technical problems
with the
setup; work is underway to correct for them, but it is not certain that
good
wind data will be extractable. A
calendar of data availability has been created showing days in which
various
platforms were operational. The
permit problems forced deployment to be delayed until mid-July, and
large
convective storms did occasionally knock out the power supply to the
site. However, 49-69 days worth of data
were
collected by the primary platforms by the time operations concluded on
20
September. Much of the surface
meteorological, ceilometer, and 915-MHz profiler data are currently
available
from PI Clark King (Clark.W.King@noaa.gov). The
surface flux, soil moisture, and radiation data should
be available within one month (May 1).
Results from the 449-MHz profiler should be available by
mid-summer,
2005. Data and metadata will be
posted on the NCAR/EOL web site by the end of May. Initial
diagnostics from the 915-MHz profiler were discussed
and time-height cross-sections revealed a mean diurnal cycle consisting
of
inland flow extending up to 1 km with winds aloft becoming more
southerly. There was a weak land breeze at
night
at low levels while upper levels exhibited more transience. Future
analyses and
sampling will focus on the diurnal cycle of the various data collected
and
their modulation by mesoscale transients such as gulf surges.
Title: NAME
event raingauge
network: Results and legacy issues
Authors: David
Gochis,
NCAR; Chris Watts, Jaime Garatuza, Julio Rodriguez,
The NERN was
expanded by 6
additional gauges in 2004 which were targeted at improving coverage
underneath
the SMN precipitation radars at Obregon and Guasave.
Data from the 2004 field season has undergone a preliminary QC
and has been posted to NCAR/EOL as a provisional dataset for use by other
NAME
PIs. A new feature of this year’s
QC was a “gross-error” check to the data in which large events were
flagged and
the raw data records were manually inspected for plausibility. The NERN is now in the process of being
merged with other automated rain gauge data sets from 2004 and will
eventually
be part of an enhanced resolution hourly gridded product produced at
NOAA/CPC. Analysis products from 2004 were
compared with those from 2003, revealing that precipitation in 2004 was
generally greater in most locations in the NERN sampling domain. Integrating data from 2002-2004
resulted in further smoothing of the diurnal cycle of precipitation
products. The segregation of the diurnal
cycle of
precipitation intensity from the 0-500m elevation band from the rest of
the
network was presented as a distinguishing feature of the precipitation
regime. This elevation band
possessed the strongest precipitation intensities and strongest
nocturnal
precipitation signal and thus is suspected to have a greater maritime
influence
than those sites at higher elevations and further inland.
Regional composites also revealed that
averaged hourly precipitation intensities appeared to be higher in 2004
than in
2003 thus contributing to greater seasonal totals.
NAME investigators using the NERN data are encouraged to
contact the NERN team if they encounter any suspect precipitation
estimates.
Title: NAME
simple raingauge
network
Authors: René
Lobato, IMTA,
Wayne Higgins, Wei Shi
The main objective
for the
project is to install approximately 1,100 gauges in the states of
Sonora,
Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa and Baja California. The
data from the sites is not yet collected so the presentation
focused on the plan for collection, QC and distribution to SMN and
NOAA-CPC. Various agencies within
Sonora are donating infrastructure, particularly communications. Data from most of the currently
installed sites is now being reported daily to the collaborating
agencies. The gauges used in this project
are
graduated cylinder funneled gauges with overflow containers similar to
those
used at NOAA cooperative sites. In
addition to daily radio-reported values, hard copy archives are being
kept. A simple user manual is
distributed with each gauge upon installation and each gauge is GPS
located. At present, 300 gauges
have been installed. The plan for
data flow is to have the data entered into a PC by the collaborating
collection
agencies and then sent to IMTA and SMN.
Attempts are underway to standardize the data formats. IMTA has already created a simple
MSWindows application for collectors to log in data.
The planned network should provide good ‘in-filling’ with
existing CNA/GASIR daily observation networks. The
fully-integrated data collection system should be
operational by the 2005 rainy season, with a goal of trying to provide
much of
the data in a daily operational capacity.
Attempts are also underway to provide some sites with
thermometers. Special note was given to
the many
people, volunteers and inhabitants of the region in which the first
deployment
of rain gauges was made. The
assistance of these people was found to be exceptionally genuine and
absolutely
critical to the projects success.
Title:
Profiler-based
precipitation observations at the ETL/AL flux site
Author:
Christopher
Williams, NOAA ETL/AL
At the NOAA
supersite several
instruments were used to observe the vertical structure of
precipitating cloud
systems and estimate the vertical profile of hydrometeor drop size
distributions (DSDs). The
principal instruments in this effort were the 449 MHz profiler and the
2875MHz
vertically pointing profiler. The
systems identified 23 rain events and images and animations are
available on
the NOAA ETL/AL website. Specific
measurements included reflectivity, Doppler velocity, and spectrum
variance. Calibration of the
profiler reflectivities using SPol radar data are expected to become
available
by June. A more thorough analysis of the DSD measured from the
profilers is
expected by August. Other data
will be released as available.
Title:
Vegetation feedback
and soil moisture projects
Authors: Chris
Watts, U.
Sonora, Michael Douglas NOAA NSSL
Two U.S. and 3
Mexican
institutions operated 8 flux sites during NAME 2004 (3 sites in Mexico
and 5
sites in Arizona). NDVI imagery
sequences highlighted the dramatic green-up of the region surrounding
the
Tezopaco and Rayon, Sonora sites.
2003 data from Arizona show a very clear decrease in vapor
pressure
deficit in response to the onset of the monsoon. Initial
data from Tezopaco in 2004 show significant
contrasts between pre- and post-onset conditions and flux sites. The tower at Tezopaco was situated within
and above the tropical deciduous forest.
The Rayon site was situated in a subtropical scrub site. The third site at La Pintada was
situated in desert scrub and buffel grass. July-September
evapotranspiration measured 251 mm at
Tezopaco, 139 mm at Rayon and 90 mm (July, August only) at La Pintada. The fraction of ET/precipitation was
found to be relatively constant between the sites ranging from
0.53-0.63. One particularly interesting
finding
from 2004 was that while measured ET varies in close correspondence
with
precipitation the NDVI values do not seem to vary appreciably. Data from the flux towers is expected
to be available during the summer of 2004.
Title: SMEX04
Authors:
Francisco Muñoz,
Duke Univ.; Tom Jackson, USDA; and Dennis Lettenmaier, UW,
The main goal of
the SMEX
program is to improve the mapping of soil moisture in the North
American
Monsoon region. The SMEX program
ran from 2 – 27 August 2004 after being delayed from mid-July by
aircraft
mechanical problems. Two domains
were sampled; one encompassing the Walnut Gulch (USDA/ARS experimental
watershed) region in southeastern Arizona and the second in northern
Sonora. The primary remote sensing
platforms were a NRL P3 (flying both C- and L-band passive microwave
radiometers) and the Aqua satellite AMSR-E (10 GHz band).
Surface sites included micrometeorology
and multilevel manual and automated soil moisture measurements. Flight operations were scheduled, to
the extent possible, to follow rainfall events. AMSR-E
overpasses (about every two days) will provide
coincident retrievals at much coarser spatial resolution (roughly 25
km). The
aircraft instruments provide products with a 3 km spatial resolution.. Unfortunately, the largest rainfall
events during the sampling period at Walnut Gulch were modest (maximum
24-hour
precipitation about 6 mm). although rainfall amounts at the northern
Sonora
site (Rayon tower) were much larger – about 25 mm on Aug 6, 28 mm on
Aug 7, and
9 mm on Aug 13. Ongoing activities
include the processing of aircraft data, satellite soil moisture
processing and
processing and QC of all ground-based measurements.
Once completed the data will be archived to the National
Snow and Ice Data Center archive to which NCAR/EOL will direct users form
the NAME
data archive. The SMEX group has
an upcoming meeting in Phoenix during May 2005 and plans are being made
to have
a special issue of a yet to be determined journal on SMEX results. Some point measurements may become
available to the community by the time of the May meeting.
Title:
Oceanographic
measurements aboard the R.V. Altair:
Author: Chris
Fairall,
NOAA ETL
The R/V Altair completed two cruises during the 2004 field
campaign
between 7 July and 12 Aug. The
ship was deployed to a quasi-stationary location at the mouth of the
Gulf of
California. Shipboard measurements
included 915-MHz wind profile measurements, rawinsondes, air-sea
fluxes, near
surface meteorology, precipitation and conductivity-temperature-density
(CTD)
measurements.
Preliminary diagnostic analyses showed that the top of the
marine
boundary layer is typically less than 1000m ASL while additional
shallow
inversions typical of elevated residual layers were encountered at
higher
altitudes. The typical time of
convective precipitation at the Altair was found to be around 7-8 a.m. local time. Several surge events were documented during
the field
campaign. Comparisons of water,
air and radiative temperature measurements showed that the radiative
temperature was cooler than the 2 cm depth water temperature by about
2-3 degrees. The diurnal cycle of 2 cm
depth water temperature
was also found to be on the order of 2-3 degrees.
Other data products from the shipboard platforms
include time series of surface heat and moisture fluxes, solar
radiation, and
ocean heat flux. Cloud radiative
forcing was also calculated. Observations
of the diurnal cycle of IR cloud forcing suggests that cloud fraction
is
greatest at night and early morning and skies tend to be clear by 1500
local
time. There was an apparent
decrease in aerosol concentration throughout the field campaign as
inferred
from deviations of observed incoming solar radiation from a presumed
clear sky
model estimate. Raw data from the
shipboard platforms are available on the NOAA ETL ftp site which is
linked
through the NOAA ETL/AL website.
Title:
Oceanographic
measurements (CICESE)
Authors: Miguel
Lavin and
Tereza Cavazos, CICESE, Michael Douglas, NOAA-NSSL
The R/V Ulloa made two separate cruises within the Gulf of
California; 5-21 June and 6-22 August.
The first cruise included several transects along the southern
end of
the Gulf of California. During the
first cruise 174 CTD casts were made, 17 drifters were deployed and 50
soundings were made (26 with wind measurements and 24 without). Cold
water
intrusion from the Eastern Pacific was measured and wind analyses
revealed flow
from the southwest overlying the cold tongue. The
average latent heat flux in this region was ~ 94 W/m2. Several animations were presented which
illustrated the movement of the drifters northward, up the Gulf of
California. From these animations
it took a drifter approximately 2 weeks to traverse from the mouth of
the Gulf
to north of Isla Tiburon (central Sonora). Higher
latent heat values were observed during the second
cruise as were much slower drifter speeds. One
conclusion from this study was that a lot of the
seasonal heating in the Gulf of California is through advection from
warmer
regions further south. Soundings,
PIBALS and tethersonde measurements were also made aboard the CISESE
vessel
during both cruises.
Soundings were made 4x daily with the 5am and 5pm soundings
containing
wind, temperature and humidity measurements while the other two
soundings only
contained temperature and humidity measurements. During the first
cruise it was
found the marine layer was quite shallow with a height of around 300m
ASL and
multiple inversion structures existed above. The
second cruise showed a marked change in upper level
winds from west to east occurring sometime between June and August. The marine layer inversion was less
frequently observed during the August cruise than during the June
cruise. Data from the shipboard
instruments,
soundings and drifters will be uploaded to NCAR/EOL by the end of April.
Title: S-Pol
Data
Collection and the SMN Radar Network
Author: Tim
Lang, CSU
The NCAR S-band
dual
polarized Doppler radar was deployed near the coastal town of La Cruz,
Sinaloa
from 8 July through 21 August. Two
modes of operation were used; a climatology mode (with a 200km range)
and a
storm microphysics mode (150 km range).
Rain maps were created every 15 min in coordination with SMN
radar
scans. Work is currently underway
to process and quality control the SPol data after encountering delays
in
acquiring the data from NCAR/ATD. In addition to rainfall estimates,
calculations
of Kdp (specific phase propagation), beam blockage and beam attenuation
are
also being made. The SMN radars
operated as follows: Los Cabos -
15 July through the fall; Guasave - 10 June through the fall. Failure of a transmitter power supply
at Obregon, resulted in a lack of data from that site.
The SMN radar at El Palmito, Durango
suffered a lightning strike prior to the field campaign and fuel
shortages
during the field campaign and was not fully operational for portions of
the
field campaign. All radar mosaics
will therefore contain data only from the SPol, Guasave and Los Cabos
radars. Cartesian gridded
composites are being developed using the radar mosaics and will have
15min time
resolution and 1, 2 and 5 km grid spacings. An
SPol only product is also being planned which will have a
0.5 km horizontal and vertical resolution along with hydrometeor
identification. A case study from
a storm event on 5 August, 2230-0330 UTC was presented which
corresponded with
IOP 7. It was observed that
stratiform precipitation was not very closely connected with intense
convective
cells and that in general the MCS did not exhibit as well organized
behavior as
is commonly observed in MCSs in higher latitudes such as the U.S. Great
Plains. An example of hydrometeor
classification from the SPol radar was also provided which highlighted
a deep
region of hail and an associated bright band region of melting hail
which
induced a phase shift in the radar retrieved reflectivities. The hail was estimated to be of 2 cm in
diameter above the melt layer and it was noted that large hail signal
returns
were commonly observed over the mountains of the Sierra Madre east of
the SPol
radar site. Rain rates up to 100
mm/hr were observed with the SPol radar.
The CSU group is also working in collaboration with the NERN
groups and
the NHWG in the development of river basin average precipitation
products for
basins underneath the radar scanning umbrellas. Planned
work includes using the mosaic products for
diagnostic studies on the diurnal cycle, spatial variability of
precipitation,
vertical structure, mesoscale organization mechanisms such as easterly
waves,
convective versus stratiform precipitation comparisons and continental
versus
maritime precipitation regimes.
The radar group is also collaborating with gage-based
precipitation
teams and the NOAA supersite team in the cross validation of
precipitation
estimates from the various platforms.
Estimated delivery of the gridded radar composites in NetCDF
format to
NCAR/EOL is expected to occur by mid-summer 2005.
1.3
NAME Diagnostic Studies (Chair: R. Johnson)
Title: Assessment of NCEP
data assimilation systems during NAME04
Author: Kingtse
Mo, CPC
During NAME04 EOP
period (1
July – 15 August 2004) additional upper-air soundings from the United
States
and Mexico over the Tier I area were archived at the CPC/NCEP. A
data-impact
study has been organized that will perform data assimilation both with
and
without these soundings using both NCEP global and regional analysis
systems.
NCEP global systems: CDAS (200-km horizontal resolution and 28 levels
in the
vertical) and GDAS (50-km horizontal resolution and 64 vertical levels)
and two
regional systems: RCDAS (32 km and 45 vertical levels) and EDAS (12 km
and 60
vertical levels). For the coarse
resolution CDAS system, the data impact of the NAME soundings on both
forecasts
and analyses is small and limited to the Tier 1 area. The coarse
resolution
model is not able to take advantage of the additional soundings. A
model with
50-km horizontal resolution or finer is needed to study the impact of
the NAME
soundings. For the RCDAS, the soundings improve the winds and specific
humidity
over the Tier I region. The low level moisture transport from the Gulf
of
California to the Southwest also shows substantial improvement. Future
work: Perform
a data-impact study using the 12-km Eta model; CDAS, RCDAS and EDAS
data-impact
studies using all NAME 2004 sounding data, once it becomes available.
Title: Diurnal Cycle of
Cloudiness and Precipitation using Satellite Observations
Author: Pingping
Xie, CPC
The
diurnal cycle of NAMS cloud and precipitation
fields were examined over Mexico and the southwestern US for warm
seasons 2003
and 2004 using the global full- resolution IR data of Janowiak et al.
(2001),
the CMORPH satellite precipitation of Joyce et al. (2004), and the
3-dimensional precipitation data observed by the TRMM precipitation
radar. Variations of cloudiness and
precipitation are dominated by the diurnal cycle over the region. Cloud
and
precipitation systems start from higher elevations of the Sierra Madre
Occidental in the morning, and move toward the coast as they reach the
convective
maximum later in the afternoon.
The phase of the diurnal cycle is relatively stable, while the
magnitude
is modulated by changes on synoptic and intraseasonal time scales. Maxima of deep convection and
precipitation appear 50-100 km west of the mountain crests.
Title: NAME Precipitation Assessment
Project
Authors: Wei Shi, Wayne Higgins, CPC
Progress on a
comprehensive
precipitation assessment project carried out during NAME 2004 was
reported. Intercomparisons of nine
precipitation estimates, including a gauge-only gridded analysis, seven
satellite estimates and one model forecast (GFS), were presented. The gauge analysis and the GFS compared
favorably to each other. The
satellite estimates tended to overestimate (underestimate) heavy
(light)
precipitation during NH summer when compared to the gauge analysis and
the GFS. In order to improve satellite
precipitation estimates, it is recommended that algorithm developers
exploit
NAME gauge based precipitation datasets that resolve the diurnal cycle
in the
core monsoon region of Northwest Mexico and the Southwest US. At the present time, it appears that
gauge-based estimates offer the best prospects for forecast validation
purposes.
Title: Diurnal
Cycle of Rainfall and Wind Observed by S-Pol Radar during NAME
Authors: D.A.
Ahijevych and R. E. Carbone, NCAR
S-band
polarimetric radar (S-Pol) measured
reflectivity and radial wind over the coastline of Mexican Sinaloa from
July 10
to August 20, 2004. Low-level
S-Pol sweep files were interpolated to a rotated Cartesian grid aligned
with
the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO).
The data were then binned according to hour of the day,
eliminating
multi-day oscillations and transients.
What remained were signatures of the sea/land breeze circulation
and
continental rainfall.
Twenty-four-frame movie loops of rainfall and wind illustrated
the mean
position and amplitude of the sea breeze front and the regular build-up
of deep
convection over higher terrain after 1300 local time (LT).
The radial wind field indicated a sea
breeze peak of 5 m/s at about 1500 LT with a shallower land breeze peak
near
0400 LT (2.5 m/s). Hovmöller
diagrams averaged in the along-coast dimension suggested a strong
diurnal peak
over land centered on 1800 local time with a tendency to move farther
westward
over water during the night in the presence of Gulf Surges and inverted
troughs. On average, the westward
propagation speed was about 4 m/s.
In the future, a lower elevation angle will be used to
characterize the
land breeze and the analysis will also include SMN radars.
With the additional coverage, we can
begin to characterize the span and duration of organized rainfall
episodes, as
previously done by the authors over the continental U.S.
Title: Climate
Variability Studies over
the American Warm Pools
Author:
Victor Magaña, UNAM
The R/V El
Puma conducted a research
cruise to the south of the mouth of the Gulf of
California (GOC) from 3-17 August (ECAC5-NAME). Goals
of the research were (1) to study the transition of
the ocean and lower atmosphere from the warm pool of the eastern
Pacific to the
GOC, and (2) to investigate the heavy-rain area over the ocean to the
west of
Puerto Vallarta. Measurements
included tethersonde, radiation, surface meteorology, CTD, aerosols,
and rain
chemistry. Tethersonde
measurements were taken to 1 km.
The observed depth of the ocean mixed layer was 20-30 m. It was also noted that many lower-tropospheric
vortices, such as tropical cyclones, that amplify in the eastern
Pacific have
their origins in the Caribbean low-level jet, possibly from barotropic
instability.
Title: Gulf Surges,
the Diurnal Cycle, and Convective Outflows During NAME as Revealed by
the NCAR
ISS Array
Authors: R.
Johnson, P. Rogers, P. Ciesielski, B. McNoldy, and R. Taft
Three NCAR
Integrated Sounding Systems (ISSs) and one
GPS sounding system (GLASS) were deployed along the GOC during the NAME
EOP. The ISSs documented many
aspects of the NAM along the GOC, including the characteristics of gulf
surges,
convective outflows, and the diurnal cycle. The
strong 13 July gulf surge was associated with the
passage of TS Blas to the south of the GOC and was preceded by
convective
downdraft outflows at the ISS sites.
Peak winds occurred at 1.2 km AGL at Los Mochis and Bahía Kino,
while
somewhat lower (700 m) at Puerto Peñasco.
Peak winds in the convective outflows were near 300 m. Strongest winds in the gulf surge
occurred at Puerto Peñasco (~20 m s-1).
These strong low-level winds, which occurred over an 8-10 h
period, represented the first stage (or pulse) in the overall surge,
which
lasted 2-3 days accompanied by significant lower-tropospheric cooling. This first stage exhibited rapid
movement (20-25 m s-1) from Los Mochis to Puerto Peñasco,
and was
accompanied by a 3-4 hPa surface pressure rise to a new level,
suggesting the
characteristics of an internal bore or mixed Kelvin-wave bore. However, more work is needed to fully
characterize this phenomenon. The
ISS data also revealed a sharply contrasting behavior of the diurnal
cycle from
north to south, with a strong low-level nocturnal jet at Puerto Peñasco
peaking
near 500 m AGL around sunrise, but much weaker at Bahía Kino and
nonexistent at
Los Mochis. Prominent afternoon
sea breezes were observed at Bahía Kino and Los Mochis.
Title: Model
simulation of the moist surges along the Gulf of California during NAME
Author: Hugo
Berbery, U. Maryland
The presentation
first discussed
the advective processes over the GoC during the NAME 2004 Field
Campaign. A
brief review highlighted the critical role of moisture surges along the
Gulf
for the development of precipitation in the southwest United States.
Simulations with NCEP’s workstation version of the Eta model were
performed and
a case study (Tropical Storm Blas) was analyzed and compared with
observations.
The model forecasts reproduced most aspects of the circulation fields,
and the
time evolution of precipitation was found to be well within the range
obtained
from different observational estimates of precipitation.
The
second objective of the presentation was to present an assessment of
the land
surface-atmosphere interactions in the core monsoon estimated using the
North American
Regional Reanalysis products. As such, these results have to be
interpreted in
terms of interactions between the variables and not as the direction of
possible feedbacks. The core monsoon reveals strong interactions
between soil
moisture and other surface and boundary layer parameters. Increases in
soil
moisture correspond to increases in latent heat and decreases in
sensible heat,
so that with more soil moisture the evaporation fraction is larger (and
the
Bowen ratio smaller). There is also an inverse correspondence between
soil
moisture and the lifting condensation level and, as expected, a direct
correspondence with the low cloud cover. All these relationships are
ultimately
reflected in a direct relationship between soil moisture and observed
precipitation.
Title: Relationships
Between Gulf Surges and Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Basin
Author:
Wayne Higgins and W. Shi, CPC
Relationships
between GoC moisture surges and tropical
cyclones (TCs) in the eastern Pacific basin were examined.
Standard surface observations were
used to identify gulf surge events at Yuma, Arizona for a multi-year
(July-August 1979-2001) period.
The surges were related to TCs using National Hurricane Center
6-hourly
track data for the eastern Pacific basin.
CPC observed daily precipitation analyses and the NCEP Regional
Reanalysis were used to examine the relative differences in the
precipitation,
atmospheric circulation and moisture fields for several categories of
surge
events, including those that were directly related to TCs, indirectly
related
to TCs and not related to TCs. It was
shown that the response to the surge in the southwestern U.S. and
northwestern
Mexico is strongly discriminated by the presence or absence of TCs. Surges
that are related to TCs tend to be associated
with much stronger and deeper low-level southerly flow, deeper plumes
of
tropical moisture, and wetter conditions over the core monsoon region
than
surges that are unrelated to TCs.
The response to the surge was also strongly influenced by the
proximity
of the TC to the GoC region. TCs
that track towards the GoC region exert a stronger, more direct
influence on
Yuma surges than those that track away from the GoC.
Title: Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation
based on
CMORPH
Authors: V. Kousky, J. Janowiak and R.
Joyce, CPC
A remarkable
feature of the
North American monsoon is the very large amplitude of the diurnal cycle
of
precipitation in the vicinity of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) in
northwest
Mexico. Convective precipitation develops over the SMO during the early
afternoon (1230-1300 LST), reaches maximum intensity just to the west
of the
SMO in early evening (1830-1900 LST), and weakens during the night
(0030-0100
LST). The convective systems primarily move westward producing a
nocturnal
maximum along the coastal plain. At 28ºN there is also some indication
of
eastward propagation just to the east of the crest of the SMO. Another interesting feature of the
North and Central American monsoon is the strong diurnal cycle in
precipitation
that occurs over nearby oceanic regions, sometimes extending hundreds
of miles
out to sea, especially west of Central America and to the east of the
East
Coast of the United States.
Convection develops along the east coast of Central America
early in the
day, propagates to the west coast by evening and then continues
westward over
the ITCZ region of the Pacific, where a significant diurnal cycle in
precipitation is evident several hundred kilometers from land. Over the
southeastern United States precipitation is greatest during the late
afternoon
and early evening, while over the Atlantic the maximum occurs during
the late
night / early morning 300-400 kilometers east of the coast. For this
region
there is no apparent propagation of precipitating systems, but rather a
distinct out-of-phase relationship in the strength of precipitation
between
land and the nearby Atlantic Ocean.
1.4 SWG-7 Executive
Session (Chair: W.
Higgins)
A
NAME Executive
Session, open to all SWG-7 attendees, was held on Thursday PM. Wayne Higgins chaired the meeting,
which started with a show of hands by SWG members to establish a quorum. Higgins presented an 8-point agenda for
the meeting, the last two points of which were covered by Dave Gutzler
and
Andrea Ray.
(1) SWG-7 Expected Outcome - SWG Assignments:
The
expected
outcome of the NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 meeting is a report that
summarizes
(i) the contents of the NAME 2004 data set, including dates of
deliverables;
(ii) NAME 2004 value added products; (iii) the strategy for post NAME
2004
modeling and data assimilation activities (including NAMAP2) to improve
simulations and predictions of warm season precipitation with coupled
climate
models; and (iv) a list of "Synthesis Products" that are expected to
emerge
from NAME and the plans for achieving them.
The
Workshop report is intended to satisfy
a CPPA Milestone for FY 2005. NAME
Milestones are listed in section 4.
Higgins pointed out that
"CLIVAR bought NAME based on Tier III" and asked how Tier III could
be made more visible in NAME Milestones.
He suggested we “quantify the relative influence of the oceanic
and land
surface boundary conditions on simulations of the 2004 monsoon”, for
FY07. Gutzler suggested expanding the
milestone to "determine the effects of NAME 2004 enhanced observations
on operational
analyses to determine the influences of the monsoon on the larger
scales". Mo and Higgins indicated that
these
studies are in progress. Gutzler
asked whether the FY09 bullet was within the core monsoon or the Tier
III
region. Higgins is thinking the
current operational domain should be expanded from the US into Mexico. Higgins charged the SWG to help improve
NAME milestones.
Following
SWG-7, the NAME Science and Implementation Plan will be updated and
disseminated via the NAME web page (www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name).
Action 1
Prepare
and distribute NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 Meeting Report (Higgins and
SWG).
Action 2
Update
and disseminate NAME Science and Implementation Plan (Higgins and SWG).
Action 3 Develop
a list of NAME “Synthesis Products” that are expected to emerge from
NAME
and the plans for achieving them (SWG)
Action 4 Revise
NAME milestones to make NAME Tier 3 activities more visible and
explicit
Action 5
Evaluate
progress on the development of the NAME post-field phase data set,
including
dates of deliverables (SWG)
Action 6
Evaluate progress on
NAME 2004 value added products (SWG)
Action 7 Update
strategy in NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation “White Paper” (Mo, SWG)
Action 8 Establish protocols, expand participation and
carry
out NAMAP2 (Gutzler, Mo, Schemm,
Shi,
Higgins).
(2) BAMS article update:
Higgins described the history and current status of the BAMS Article entitled “The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) 2004 Field Campaign and Modeling Strategy”. The proposal for the article was submitted to AMS on 1 November 2004, and accepted 1 December 2004. The article was iterated twice between the SWG Chair and the co-authors. The article was submitted to BAMS on 20 March 2005. The BAMS article has 36 authors. CPPA will sponsor color figures and page charges. Higgins noted that he has only about half of the figures in .eps form (needed for final submission), and urged co-authors who have not given him .eps versions to do so.
Action 9 Publish
an article entitled “The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) 2004
Field
Campaign and Modeling Strategy” in the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological
Society (Higgins,
SWG, NAME PIs).
(3) Journal of Climate Special Issue:
Higgins explained that JCL was chosen for a Special Issue on NAME because NAME is a climate program, and JCL was receptive to a broad array of NAME studies (e.g. basic physical process understanding, applications, climate-scale, seasonal modeling activities). The submission deadline is 15 October, with publication planned for mid-2006. Authors should submit manuscripts electronically, and state that the article is for the NAME special issue. Andrew Weaver will handle the editing; he would like authors who have not already done so to send the names of 3 suggested reviewers to Higgins. Page charges should be covered by the authors from their grants.
Action 10 Contribute
to a Special Issue of the Journal of Climate on NAME (SWG, PIs).
(4) NAME Education Module update:
The NAME Education module includes 4 basic elements: (i) Teachers in the Field; (ii) NAM Monograph; (iii) Curriculum Unit and Lesson Plans and (iv) Teacher Workshop Opportuinities. Higgins reported on the status of the last 3 of these.
A 500-copy print release of a "beta-version" of the NAME “Reports to the Nation” Monograph on the North American Monsoon will be made available at the NOAA booth during the March 31-April 3 National Science Teachers Association Annual Conference in Dallas Texas. Currently the monograph is also available on the NAME website (www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name/education/index.html). The beta version allows for iteration with science educators who can provide critical input and feedback before we go to a final version. A questionaire for teachers to evaluate the document will be distributed at the meeting.
Cover Art will be completed by John Kermond. Mike Patterson says the monograph has illustrations that are quite technical. He requested that people post photos from NAME on the NCAR/EOL web site so they could be incorporated into the monograph. Higgins also recommended that the Monograph be translated into Spanish.
OGP will hold a focused workshop in Tucson, AZ during the summer of 2005, inviting teachers that have responded via the questionnaire, in order to solicit more specific input on the use of the document and the lesson plans being developed by Steve Uyeda. Recommended modifications and final print and web-posting will be carried out thereafter.
A Curriculum unit and lesson plans for 6th through 9th grade are being developed by Steve Ugeda, a 9th grade teacher from Tucson. Mike Patterson said that 4 plans are done, mostly on weather scale. Mike suggested that Uyeda pair with someone to flesh out the remaining units (Erik Pytlak has volunteered). Mike hopes to have copies for the NSTA meeting.
NAME will organize a Special Session at the March 2006 NSTA conference focused on the North American Monsoon that will include presentations by NAME scientists and a walk through the NAME education materials
Action 11 Release "beta-version" of NAME “Reports to
the Nation” monograph at the NOAA
booth
during the March 31-April 3 National Science Teachers Association (NSTA)
Annual Conference in Dallas Texas.
Distribute
Questionaire for teachers to evaluate the
document (OGP)
Action 12 Hold focused workshop in Tucson, AZ during the summer of 2005 inviting
teachers that
responded
to the questionnaire (Action 1.10) in order to solicit more specific
input on
the
use of the NAM Monograph and the lesson plans
being
developed by Steve Uyeda (OGP)
Action 13 Post photos from NAME 2004 on the NCAR/EOL web site so that they can be incorporated into
the NAME “Reports to the Nation” monograph.
Action 14 Work with Steve Uyeda to complete remaining 6 of 10 lesson plans for NAME
curriculum unit.
Action 15 Hold NAME Session at March 2006 NSTA Annual
Conference
focused on the North
American
Monsoon Presentations by NAME scientists. Walk through the education
materials
(5) NAME SWG-8 - Modeling & Applications Workshop:
The Eighth NAME Science Working Group Meeting (SWG-8) will be coordinated with the Ninth VAMOS Panel Meeting (VPM9) in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil during April 2006. The 8th AMS International Conference on SH Meteorology and Oceanography will also be held at that time. The SWG-8 meeting will focus on NAME modeling and applications studies, including climate model assessments, climate data assimilation, climate products and applications, and transition of R&D to operations (NOAA Climate Test Bed).
Because VAMOS is developing an integrated strategy for NAME, MESA and VOCALS activities (e.g. joint modeling activities), and because NAME is the North American implementation of VAMOS, future NAME SWG meetings will be coordinated with the VAMOS Panel meetings. NAME, MESA and VOCALS will coordinate so that there is no duplication of activities and participants can attend sessions on all 3 VAMOS Science Components.
There will be a Special Session on NAME 2004 and NAME Modeling Activities at the 30th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, State College, PA, 24-28 October 2005.
Action 16 Coordinate the
Eighth NAME Science Working Group Meeting with the 9th VAMOS
Panel
Meeting in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil (March 2006).
Action 17 Coordinate future
NAME SWG meetings with VAMOS Panel Meetings (Higgins, SWG).
Action 18
Organize
a Special Session on NAME 2004 and NAME Modeling Activities at 30th
Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop,
State
College PA (24-28 October, 2005).
(6) SWG 2005 rotation:
Several SWG members are eligible to rotate off the SWG in September 2005. These members are required to convey their intentions for continued participation on the SWG (optional 3 year term) to the SWG Chair by June 2005. A call for nominations will be initiated by the SWG Chair in June 2005. This will include a discussion of missing links on the SWG (e.g. applications, modelers, etc.).
Higgins invited a discussion on whether there should be a change to the ToR for the NAME SWG Chair? Gutzler said that when the SWG was set up, the Pan-American and VAMOS panels wanted the Chair in place through the field campaign. Berbery thought that having a Chair who was *not* a modeler as we entered the modeling phase of NAME could be an advantage.
Action 19 Carry out the NAME SWG 2005 membership
rotation
(Higgins, SWG)
Action 20 Modify ToR for rotation of the NAME SWG chair
(SWG)
(7) US-CLIVAR Reorganization, presented by Dave Gutzler:
Dave Gutzler discussed the reorganization of US CLIVAR and in particular how that might affect NAME. Currently US CLIVAR uses “basin panels” to implement projects: Pacific, Atlantic, and Pan American. The Pan American Panel has implemented several process studies, including EPIC, SALLJEX, NAME 2004 and VOCALS (2007). There has always been close coordination between the CLIVAR VAMOS Panel and the US CLIVAR Pan American Panel.
When US CLIVAR reorganizes, the current panel structure will dissolve (in August 2005). Other working groups and the SSC will be reorganized. The primary motivation is to attract additional funding from several US agencies. Three new implementation panels will be formed: 1) Model development/process studies; 2) Observations/phenomena/diagnostics; 3) Prediction/applications. Existing panel activities need to be mapped onto the new panel structure. This includes the activities of the NAME SWG.
Gutzler made 2 specific requests of NAME:
(1) Provide advice to the Pan American Panel on how the NAME SWG would like to map onto the new US CLIVAR Implementation Panels;
(2) Provide "NAME greatest hits" input to the Pan-American Panel to wrap up its contributions to US CLIVAR.
Regarding (1), there was a consensus at the meeting that the NAME SWG should link to the predictions/applications implementation panel. Regarding (2), the SWG felt that the recent BAMS article on NAME 04 and NAME Modeling Strategy would be a good contribution. This meeting report also has a list of NAME 2004 value added products, a list of NAME "Synthesis Products", and the latest NAME Milestones, which could also be used.
(8) NAME Products & Applications, presented by Andrea Ray:
Ray started by asking what products are coming out of NAME, and stating a need for a strategy for science that was relevant and accessible to applications communities. She noted that many groups beyond the atmospheric and hydrological communities have an interest in NAME issues, e.g. water management, fire, health, economics, drought. Ray sees the tasks ahead as: developing a list of products; organizing around targeted user communities; determining who will be the operational hosts; coordinating with regional climate centers in NW Mexico; collaboration with hydrological and human dimensions communities; communicating with potential users (e.g. through yearly monsoon outlooks).
Ray presented a strawman (1) to spin up an applications focus in the SWG, (2) to conduct a survey/poll of anticipated products, and (3) to develop a network of applications and human dimensions partners, and (4) to link to the emerging NOAA Climate Test Bed.
1.5
NAME Applications (Chair: A. Ray)
Title: Linking
NAME
research to hydrological applications: Planned research from the NHWG
Author: D. Gochis
The talk was
centered on 3
key elements; (1) past and current activities of NHWG members; (2)
current
research ‘threads’ in NAME hydroclimatological research; and (3)
opportunities
for advancing NAME hydrometeorological/hydroclimatological research. Discussion of past and current
activities charted the evolution of the NHWG from its original white
paper
submission in January 2001 and described how NHWG members participated
in the NAME
2004 EOP. It was emphasized that
the NHWG is clearly addressing monsoon hydrology across a wide range of
space
and time scales deemed essential for holistic characterization of NAM
hydrological processes. Five
hydrologic science objectives were articulated and classified as being
either a
‘basic’ research effort or a ‘coordinated-modeling’ research effort. Current findings exploring the
interannual and intraseasonal relationships of streamflow to monsoon
rainfall
were shared to motivate potential collaborations between climate
modeling teams
and hydrological applications teams.
Next, six specific potential collaborations, or applications of
ongoing
NAME research, were identified. A
final proposal was made to organize hydrological research efforts
around a few
key representative, data-rich basins in NW Mexico and the SW U.S. which
are of
significant interest to both NAME scientists and managing agencies such
as the
SMN, CNA and stakeholders in Mexico and the NWS and stakeholders in
Arizona. (The full presentation is
available online at: www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name/dm/NAME_data_agenda.html
and from speaker D. Gochis (gochis
at rap.ucar.edu))
Title: Early Results on User Needs in the NAME
region
Author: A.J. Ray
The talk discussed
some
aspects of the human and environment context of the monsoon region that
influence how people might use monsoon information.
It summarized work in the NAME region on water
management in Mexico and the U.S.-Mexico Border (by Margaret Wilder and
Bob
Varady); fire management (by Tim Brown and Gregg Garfin); and drought. A study of Mexican water managers and
users near the U.S.-Mexico border and in Sonora is being conducted to
identify
what kinds of climate products they use, what information is lacking,
and what
constraints / challenges exist.
Urban water managers use a variety of meteorological and
hydrological
data, but climate data and forecasts are not well integrated into daily
operational or longer-term planning practices. The
study identified a number of constraints to the use of
information as well as a number of opportunities. Ongoing
work with fire managers in the U.S. has shown that
monsoon information and forecasts are of high interest to fire
management,
because atmospheric conditions related to the monsoon have both fire
producing
and fire mitigating effects. Some
specific monsoon issues of interest to fire managers include: (i)
seasonal and
medium-range forecasts of onset; predictions of strength and
consistency of the
monsoon; (ii) improving ability to predict wet versus dry
thunderstorms; (iii) assessing
the accuracy of GFS relative humidity forecasts; (iv) ability to
recognize
monsoon “false-start”; and (v) establishing monsoon definition/index
relevant
to fire management (current dew point definition is not useful for
them). The monsoon is a factor in drought
in
the region, but the nature of drought is that it is not a unique issue
but
interacts with many other problems: fire, water management, health,
land
management, dryland agriculture and ranching. Because
of this nature there are many definitions and
perspectives on drought, but at the same time, this means that needs
for
drought information will often be related to the ongoing needs of each
of these
user communities.
Title: Linking
NAME
research to applications
Author: A.J. Ray
This talk continued
discussion of the “Proposed Research Strategy for the NHWG,” focusing
on the
steps NAME can take to engage potential users of NAME science and to
plan to
meet out year milestones related to forecasts and products (NAME FY08
milestone
to bring operational monsoon forecasts on line and CPPA FY08 milestone
to
provide new operational drought monitoring products).
User communities for NAME research include other scientists
as well as operational providers of information and end users who are
planners
and managers with interests related to water, fire, health, ecosystems,
severe
weather, and drought. In order to
ensure that products are useable, relevant, and accessible to user
communities,
NAME must coordinate with the appropriate partners in the hydrologic,
applications, and human dimensions communities, and encourage studies
in the
NAME region.
The
NHWG recommends spinning up an applications focus in the NAME SWG,
including
the following tasks and activities: (i) actively collaborate with
hydrology,
applications and human dimensions communities (U.S. and MX), and
coordinate with
RISAs, IRI, IAI, and other organizations that may contribute; (ii)
develop a
list of “Value Added” products (see section 2) and “Synthesis” products
(see
section 3) from NAME and NAME-related activities, and identify the
target user
community(s); (iii) develop a network of applications and HD
researchers and
activities in the NAME region; (iv) cultivate support for social
science and
applications in the region, and by researchers in the region; (v)
explore
development of a Regional Climate Center for NW Mexico and a Monsoon
Outlook;
(vi) begin active communication with potential users long before
operational
products come on line; (vii) develop a Monsoon Outlook/Assessment in
format(s)
appropriate for dissemination to non-atmospheric science communities,
English
and Spanish versions; (viii) NHWG should play a role in the NAME CPT,
especially with respect to drought to ensure the optimal flow of
forecast
products.
1.6 Plans for using NAME
2004 data in modeling
(Chair: L. Farfán)
Title: NAMAP2
Author: D.
Gutzler, U. New
Mexico
Dave Gutzler
reported on
planning for a collaborative modeling effort ('NAMAP2') to compare and
assess
simulations of the 2004 warm season across the NAME domain. This effort
is a
follow-on to the successful NAMAP assessment, which included four
regional and
two global models, that was carried out prior to the NAME 2004 field
campaign.
Over the next several months, NAMAP2 collaborators will develop a
protocol for
comparable atmospheric model simulations of summer 2004, including a
common SST field and time-varying lateral boundary conditions for
regional
models. The purpose of NAMAP2 will be (a) to generate a set of common
atmospheric model control runs that can be used as a basis for model
sensitivity studies; (b) to assess the general quality and shortcomings
of
these control simulations (comparing the results with NAMAP runs); and
(c) to
apply the knowledge gained from this
assessment to operational forecast model development at NOAA NCEP.
Participation is open. An immediate need is to develop a suitable SST
data set
for the NAME 2004 field campaign season, including a treatment of the
Gulf of
California that is superior to current operational products.
Title: Issues for global
modeling / diurnal cycle activities
Authors: S. Schubert and M.
Lee, NASA/GSFC
The diurnal cycle
of warm
season rainfall was analyzed in three global atmospheric general
circulation
models (NCEP, GFDL, and NASA). While the models have similar convective
schemes
based on buoyancy closure, they are characterized by different diurnal
cycles
in the North American Monsoon (NAM) region. A set of sensitivity tests
with the
NASA model showed that the source of the differences among the models
appears
to be from the implementation details of the convection scheme and the
interaction with the boundary layer. Sensitivities to the horizontal
resolution
in the model were also tested. High-resolution runs (0.5 deg.) resolved
the key
local and mesoscale features (e.g. land-sea breeze). However, increased
resolution has less of an impact on the simulated diurnal cycle of
convection,
suggesting the need for improvement in model physics parameterizations
(especially in the convection scheme). Several AGCM development issues
were
identified in the study, in which the vertical dynamic and
thermodynamic
structures from the NAME 2004 field observation are key elements to be
verified
with the current models. .
Title: NAME CPT
/ Issues
for prediction
Author: Jae
Schemm, CPC
A
NAME Climate Process and modeling Team (CPT) has been established to
link NAME
climate process research to model development and testing activities at
NCEP for
warm season climate prediction. This project has been funded by
NOAA/OGP CPPA
program; participating scientists are J. Schemm, W. Higgins, K. Mo , S.
Moorthi
and G. White of NCEP/ NWS/NOAA, D. Gutzler of University of New Mexico,
S.
Schubert of GSFC/NASA and B. Mapes of University of Miami. The project
builds
on two existing NAME-related modeling efforts. One major component of
this
project is the organization and implementation of a second phase of
NAMAP,
based on the 2004 season. NAMAP2 will re-examine the metrics proposed
by NAMAP,
extend the NAMAP analysis to transient variability, exploit the
extensive
observational database provided by NAME 2004 to analyze simulation
targets of
special interest, and expand participation. Vertical column analysis
will bring
local NAME observations and model outputs together in a context where
key
physical processes in the models can be evaluated and improved.
The
second component builds on the current NAME-related modeling effort
focused on
the diurnal cycle of precipitation in several global models, including
those
implemented at NCEP, NASA and GFDL.
The activities will focus on the ability of the operational NCEP
Global
Forecast System (GFS) to simulate the diurnal and seasonal evolution of
warm
season precipitation during the NAME 2004 EOP, and on changes to the
treatment
of deep convection in the complicated terrain of the NAMS domain that
are
necessary to improve the simulations, and ultimately predictions of
warm season
precipitation. These activities will be strongly tied to NAMAP2 to
ensure
technology transfer from research to operations.
A
feature common to both components of the project will be an examination
of the
sensitivity of the model simulations to large-scale oceanic and
continental
boundary conditions. These experiments will be designed to address
seasonal
predictability issues associated with the North American monsoon. The
overarching climate predictability goals associated with NAME are best
addressed with global models, but a joint research effort involving
both global
and regional models (especially for NAMAP2) will facilitate
improvements to all
of the models. These activities will be closely coordinated among the
NCEP CPC,
EMC Physics Group, NASA/GMAO, GFDL and the university research
community
involved in NAMAP2.
Title: NOAA Climate Test Bed
Author: Wayne Higgins
The Climate Test
Bed (CTB)
facility is proposed to accomplish the following goals: 1) assess
scientific
advances in coupled climate forecast models developed at various
institutions
towards the next generation NOAA operational climate forecast system;
2)
accelerate synthesis and implementation of advances for NOAA
operational
climate forecasts; 3) evaluate new
and enhanced climate forecast products for a wide range of applications
(e.g.
water resource management, drought prediction and information services,
agriculture applications, wild fire risk outlooks); and 4) provide
access to
operational models, forecast tools and data sets to enable
collaborative
research that accelerates improvements of the operational models, tools
and
methods. The
computer/human
resource infrastructure, transition projects (base funded and
Announcements of Opportunity),
and NCEP contributions to CTB infrastructure were discussed.
Title: Warm-season convection over the
U.S.
continent: Simulation, modeling and parameterization
Author: Mitch Moncrieff
The study
objectives were: 1)
to simulate warm-season precipitating convection over the continental
United
States; 2) implement a three-pronged strategy: a) resolve convection;
b) under-
resolve it; c) parameterize convection; and 3) validation of the
precipitation
distribution from NEXRAD analysis.
Models applied are the NCEP global analysis for background fields and
lateral
boundary conditions and MM5 run at cloud-system resolving resolutions.
It was
concluded that a representation of mesoscale dynamics presently missing
from
convective parameterizations and the parameterization of mesoscale
circulations
in climate models is necessary. In addition, the potential for
NAME-related
simulations was discussed and this includes large-scale forcing
specified from
objectively analyzed sounding data.
Title: Brief
Discussion:
Summary and recommendations for NAME modeling
Chair: Kingtse Mo
Kingtse
Mo led a short plenary discussion that focused on how results from NAME 04 are being used to
address
modeling issues aimed at improved
seasonal-to-interannual precipitation prediction. The NAME modeling
community
is in the process of updating
the modeling
strategy outlined in the NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation “White
Paper” as
follows:
(i)
Develop an
“End – to – End”
forecast system for NAME [SST prediction on S-I timescalesà surface temperature and precipitation
forecasts over
North America on S-I timescales à
hydrologic modeling, forecasts and applications];
(ii)
Exploit the
NAME 2004
enhanced observations to improve global and regional models and model
validation data sets (includes global and regional analyses);
(iii)
Focus on
hydrologic
modeling with strong links to hydrometeorological applications,
especially
drought/floods (NAME Hydrometeorological Working Group); and
(iv)
Develop
strong links to
the NOAA Climate Testbed (NAME CPT; Climate Forecast System
Assessments;
multi-model ensembles; experimental prediction) to accelerate the
transition of
NAME research into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts,
products and
applications.
Updates to the NAME
modeling
strategy are incorporated into the latest version of the NAME “White Paper”, which is posted on the
NAME webpage (www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name).
Some specific ACTIONS in the near term:
(i)
Issue the
call and
develop protocols for participation in NAMAP2 (Gutzler)
(ii)
Develop an
improved SST
dataset for the GoC during the NAME 2004 period (Xie, Mo).
(iii)
Develop a
model
verification data directory to link both measured and derived surface
data for
model verification (Johnson, Mo)
(iv)
Develop
several “Synthesis
Products” based on NHWG efforts in hydrologic prediction (Gochis, NHWG).
(v)
Add a more
comprehensive
section on hydrologic applications to the “White Paper” and S&IP
(Ray,
Gochis)
In
addition to the enhanced observations gathered during NAME 04, the
NAME community is compiling a set of NAME 2004 value added products
that
include derived quantities. Nominally
NAME 2004 value added products cover the period of the NAME 2004 field
campaign, but in many cases the period of record is longer. All of the products will be in a useful
format for quantitative applications (as opposed to .gif files,
pointers, or raw
measurements). Many of the products
(e.g. satellite, precipitation) are subsets for the NAME domain at high
spatial
and temporal resolution. The value added products
will support NAME diagnostic, modeling and prediction activities aimed
at
improved understanding, more realistic simulations and more skilful
predictions
of the NAM.
The
value added products are organized into 4 basic categories: boundary
and surface conditions; atmospheric data assimilation and forecast
products; precipitation
products; and satellite products.
Key individuals or groups responsible for these products are
also
indicated in parentheses:
2.1 Boundary and
surface
conditions
2.2 Atmospheric data
assimilation and forecast products
Provider:
CPC
Contact:
Kingtse.Mo at noaa.gov
2.3 Precipitation products
o
NAME Event
Raingauge
Network (NERN) (as fine as 5 minutes)
o
SMN
Automated Weather
Stations (10 min)
o
AGROSON
automated
agricultural weather stations
·
Satellite
analyses (0.25°
horizontal resolution and finer)
o
CPC Morphing Technique (“CMORPH”)
(daily, hourly)
o
Naval Research Laboratory/GEO (daily)
o
US-Irvine/PERSIANN (daily)
o
NASA/GSFC/3B42RT (daily, 3 hourly)
o
NESDIS/Merged AMSU-B Estimates (daily hourly)
o
NESDIS/”Hydro-Estimator”
Estimates (daily)
o
NESDIS/GOES Multi-spectral Rainfall
Algorithm (GMSRA) (daily)
Providers:
CPC, Gochis et al., SMN, AGROSON and participants in the NAME
Precipitation
Assessment Project
Contact:
Wei.Shi at noaa.gov
2.4 Satellite
data products
(CPC)
o
AMSR, GOES,
MODIS, TRMM
o
Hourly
observations from
GOES over clear sky; up to 4x daily from microwave instruments of AMSR
and TRMM
over clear sky and most cloudy regions
·
Surface Wind
o
QuikSCAT
over oceans; 2x
daily
·
Soil Moisture
o
AMSR (new
product); 2x
daily
·
Temperature
/ moisture
profiles
o
AIRS (new
product); up
to 2x daily
·
Clouds
o
AIRS, AMSR,
GOES, MODIS,
TRMM
o
Cloudiness /
cloud top
temperature from GOES
o
Total column
cloud
liquid water from AIRS, AMSR and MODIS
o
3-D
structure of cloud
liquid water from TRMM
o
AMSR, TRMM
o
Surface
precipitation
from AMSR, TRMM/TMI and TRMM/Precipitation Radar (PR)
o
3-D
structure of
precipitation and Radar Reflectivity from TRMM/Precipitation Radar (PR)
o
TRMM Radar
Reflectivity
useful for comparison with ground radar observations
o
MODIS; Up to
4x daily
Provider: CPC is
gathering data from respective groups above
Contact: Pingping.Xie at noaa.gov
Comprehensive
documentation
of NAME 2004 value added datasets, including contact information,
periods of
availability, resolution, etc) will be available from NCAR/EOL on the
NAME
Data Management page (http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name/dm/name_dm_index.html).
3. NAME Program Synthesis
Products
An
important product of the NAME Program are Synthesis
Products that show the progress the program is making to improved
understanding
and more skillful prediction of the North American monsoon and its
variability. It is envisioned that
all funded investigators have a responsibility to contribute to these
products
and that they will take leadership in developing and producing these
products. NAME Synthesis Products will be
developed to address specific NAME scientific questions that, when
answered,
will help achieve the NAME guiding goal, namely to determine the
sources and
limits of predictability of warm season precipitation over North
America, with
emphasis on time scales ranging from seasonal-to-interannual.
For NAME
to realize its scientific goals, the SWG has
established several working groups (e.g.
NAME Climate Process and Modeling Team (CPT); NAME
Hydrometeorological Working
Group (NHWG)) and subprojects (e.g. the North American Monsoon
Assessment
Project (NAMAP); the NAME Precipitation Assessment Project (PAP))
within the
program. These groups and
subprojects, together with the NAME Field Observations PIs and the NAME
Modeling and Diagnostic Studies PIs are responsible for the development
of the
NAME Synthesis Products, which are based on NAME research results and
are
critical products that demonstrate NAME research progress and
usefulness to
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA). Progress of the working groups and PI’s
towards these products will be reported to the NAME SWG, Program
Mangers and NCAR/EOL/NAME
Project Office.
The
current products, groups or subprojects responsible
for their compilation, and time horizon for their completion are as
follows:
NAME Science Question:
Can we
understand and simulate the North American monsoon system and its
variability?
2004 - Benchmark
and assess
current global and regional model simulations of the North American
monsoon
(NAMAP);
2004 - Implement
the NAME
2004 Field Experiment for improved understanding and prediction of the
monsoon (SWG);
2006 - Assess
global and
regional model simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon (NAMAP2);
2006 - Develop an improved
understanding of the water budget and its variability within the NAM
domain
based on NAME 2004 enhanced observations and modeling (SWG);
2007 - Quantify surface
fluxes and land-atmosphere climate feedbacks across the North American
monsoon
domain (SWG)
NAME Science
Question: What
are the linkages between the North American monsoon system and the
larger-scale
climate system across North America and
nearby oceans
on seasonal-to-interannual
time
scales?
2006 - Evaluate the
impact of
additional data from the NAME 2004 field campaign on operational global
and
regional analyses and forecasts (SWG).
NAME Science Question:
What are the
key factors governing the predictability of the monsoon, and in
particular, the
ability to predict warm season precipitation?
2006 – Assess the
impact of
spatial resolution on the ability of coupled climate models to simulate
the
monsoon (CPT);
2007 – Reproduce
the full
diurnal cycle of observed precipitation over the core monsoon region in
global
coupled models by matching well-constrained monthly mean observations
to within
20% (NAMAP2, CPT).
2008 – Quantify the
relative
influence of oceanic and land surface boundary conditions on
simulations of the
NAME 2004 monsoon (CPT).
NAME Science
Question: Are
climate models more capable of predicting North American monsoon
variability
months to seasons in advance?
2007 - Evaluate the
impact of
changes in model parameterization schemes (CPT);
2008 - Measure
improvements
in model simulations of monsoon onset and variability (CPT);
2009 - Implement
recommended
changes to operational climate forecast systems to improve the skill of
warm season
precipitation forecasts (CPT).
NAME Science Question:
How can the
scientific contributions of NAME, in areas such as coupled
land-atmosphere
modeling and seasonal forecasting, best be transferred to the
operational
hydrology and water resources community?
2006
- Improved rain gauge calibrated, real-time, quantitative precipitation
estimates (QPE) from radar and satellite ready for use in data
assimilation and
hydrological models (PAP, NHWG);
2007 -
Improved land data assimilation system (LDAS) for use in
initialization
of weather, climate and hydrological forecast models and for use in
real-time
drought monitoring and prediction (PAP, NHWG);
2008 - Improved
suite of seasonal hydrologic forecast systems for water resource
applications
(NHWG);
2009 - Downscaled
seasonal ensemble forecasts for streamflow / reservoir inflow and evaporative demand (NHWG).
NAME Science
Question: How is improved
understanding in the North American Monsoon conveyed to the broader
community?
2007 – Developed NAME educational materials for K-12,
including a North American Monsoon monograph, curriculum unit and
lesson
plans.
The following
annual milestones
are used to track progress toward NAME objectives, including the NAME
Synthesis
Products discussed in section 3.
ü
FY04 -
Implement NAME
2004 Field Experiment
ü
FY05 -
Evaluate impact
of data from NAME 2004 on operational analyses
FY06
- Assess global and regional model simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon (NAMAP2)
FY07
- Evaluate impact of changes in model parameterization schemes (NAME CPT)
FY07
– Quantify the relative influence of oceanic and land
surface boundary conditions on simulations of the NAME
2004 monsoon
FY08
- Measure improvements in model simulations of monsoon onset and
variability
(includes NOAA operationl GFS/CFS)
FY09
- Implement recommended changes to operational climate forecast systems
to
improve skill of warm season
precipitation forecasts
The NAME milestones
have been
updated starting in FY07 to emphasize NAME Tier 3 activities.
Appendix A. Words of Welcome for NAME, MESA and
VOCALS (Michel Rosengaus, Director SMN)
PALABRAS DE BIENVENIDA PARA REUNION NAME, MESA,VOCALS
(Por Michel Rosengaus)
Every Tuesday, at
10:00 A.M.
sharp, I walk into one of the meeting rooms at the main building of the
National Water Commission of Mexico (the CNA). There, I meet with
several of
the Under Directors of the CNA, frequently also the General Director.
Also
present are key people from the Federal Electricity Commission, the
National
Center for Disaster Prevention, the Engineering Institute of the
National
Autonomous University of Mexico, representatives of the Department of
Agriculture and Food Production, the Department of Health and the
Department of
Communications and Transport. Many technical assistants to these people
are
also there. This regular meeting is called the Technical Committee of
Hydraulic
Works Operations (CTOOH in Spanish language initials). Its purpose is
to decide
on the operation of the hydraulic infrastructure of Mexico, and mainly
the
dams, for the next days, weeks and months. Decisions taken are not
purely
“hydraulic engineering” decisions. They have significant population
safety,
health, economic, food production and energy production consequences.
The
social and political stability of the regions in question are always
present in
the minds of all at the meeting. Even international consequences are
taken into
account, especially on the Bravo (or Grande) River (depending on which
side of
the border you are), the Colorado River and the Tijuana River.
The National
Meteorological
Service of Mexico (the SMN), a part of the CNA, is always present in
order to
inform the CTOOH mainly on the dynamic of rainfall in the past week as
well as
the forecast of rain in the next week. Usually on the first meeting of
each
month, the SMN also presents monthly and seasonal climatological
forecasts out
to 3 months into the future. Thus
in early Spring (e.g. March) our forecasts do not even extend to the
initial
part of the rainy season (June), so we are not providing decision
makers with
the information they require to take solid, objective, sound decisions
on the
operation of dams over all of Mexico. Should agricultural users of
water be
allowed their full water rights under the present hydrologic situation?
If we
do, is the leftover water stored enough to provide human consumption to cities and towns for the rest of the
dry season? If we keep storage levels high, will we have to make use of
the
overflow spillways during a possibly higher than normal rainy season?
Is the
level of the risk to the population downstream reasonable? If we leave
water on
the dams, how much will we loose to evaporation during the next dry
season? Is
that evaporation going to be for a normal season or for a warmer than
normal
season? What about solar radiation anomalies? Are rains going to start
early,
normal or late this year? Can we take the risk of overstoring
temporarily in
order to lower the levels using the electricity production
infrastructure
instead of the spillways which does not produce any economic benefit?
Answers
to all of these questions are intimately linked to long-term
forecasting . They have
consequences far more important than going out
to work with or without an umbrella.
NAME 2004 Data Analysis Meeting and
Seventh Meeting of the NAME Science
Working Group
(SWG-7)
2:00 pm
Welcome / Logistics,
etc. – Miguel Cortez
2:10 pm
Reflections on NAME
2004 – Michel Rosengaus
2:20 pm
Goals / Objectives /
Special Recognition – Wayne
Higgins
Session 1: NAME 2004 Overview
Chair: Art Douglas
2:40 pm
NAME
2004 Overview - Wayne Higgins
3:00 pm
NAME 2004 Forecast
Operations Center – Erik Pytlak
3:20 pm
NAME 2004 Project
Office Activities – Gus Emmanuel
3:40 pm NAME 2004 Field Data Catalog -
José Meitín
4:00 pm
NAME
2004 Data Management – José Meitín, Scott Loehrer & Linda Cully
4:20 pm
Break
Session 2: NAME 2004 Field
Observations
Chair:
David Gochis
4:40 pm Enhanced sounding network: Performance and
results –
Paul Ciesielski
5:00 pm
NWS
& SMN soundings / SMN Participation – Art Douglas
and Miguel Cortez
5:20 pm
PIBAL
network / special raingauge measurements – Mike Douglas
5:40 pm
Research
aircraft operations and results – Mike Douglas
6:00 pm
Overview
of wind/flux/radiation observations at the ETL/AL flux site - Leslie
Hartten
6:20 pm Adjourn
Session 2: NAME 2004 Field
Observations, cont.
Chair:
David Gochis
8:30 am NAME Event Raingauge Network: Results and legacy issues – David Gochis
8:50 am
NAME
Simple Raingauge Network – René Lobato
9:10 am
Profiler-based
precipitation observations at the ETL/AL flux site - Christopher
Williams
9:30 am
Vegetation
Feedback and Soil Moisture projects – Chris Watts, M. Douglas et al.
9:50 am
SMEX04
– Tom Jackson and Dennis Lettenmaier
10:10 am
Break
10:30 am
Oceanographic
measurements (R/V Altair) – Chris Fairall
10:50 am
Oceanographic
measurements (CICESE) - Mike Douglas, Miguel Lavin
& Teresa Cavazos
11:10 am
S-pol
radar data collection – Steve Rutledge
11:30
am
SMN
radar network – Tim Lang
11:50 am
Overview
of the observations made at the ETL/AL flux site – Christopher
Williams, Clark
King
12:10 pm
Box
Lunch
Session 3: NAME Diagnostics
Studies
Chair:
Richard Johnson
1:10 pm
Assessment
of NCEP data assimilation systems during NAME04 –Kingtse Mo
1:30 pm
Diurnal
cycle of cloudiness and precipitation using satellite observations –
Pingping
Xie
1:50 pm
NAME Precipitation
Assessment Project – Wei Shi
2:10 pm
Some
preliminary findings from a dynamically-based precipitation climatology
in the
Mazatlan – Culiacan region – Rit Carbone
2:30 pm
Climate Variability Studies over the American
Warm Pools - Victor Magaña
2:50 pm Break
3:10 pm
Gulf
surges, the diurnal cycle, and convective outflows during NAME as
revealed by the NCAR ISS array – Richard Johnson
3:30 pm
Moisture Surges during
NAME: Eta model evaluation and
diagnosis – Hugo Berbery
3:50 pm
Relationships
between gulf surges and tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific basin
– Wayne
Higgins
4:10 pm
The diurnal cycle of
precipitation over the Americas based on CMORPH – Vern Kousky
Session
4: Executive
Session
Chair:
Wayne Higgins
4:30 pm Executive
Session (SWG)
-
NAME Data
Analysis Panel
Report assignments;
-
BAMS Article
-
SWG 2004
Rotation
- New Business (Extending the NAME timeline; Next
meeting)
6:30 pm Adjourn
Session 5:
NAME
Applications
Chair:
Andrea Ray
8:30 am
The NAME Hydrometeorology Working Group /
Engaging the
International Community – David
Gochis.
9:10 am Water Management in Mexico – Margaret Wilder
9:30 am Summary of the VPM8
Session on NAME Modeling & NAMAP2 – Dave Gutzler
9:50 am
Issues for
global
modeling / diurnal cycle activities – Siegfried Schubert
10:10 am Break
10:30 am
NAME
CPT / Issues for prediction – Jae Schemm
10:50 am
NOAA Climate
Test
Bed – Wayne Higgins
11:10 am
Warm-season convection
over the U.S. continent:
Simulation, modeling and parameterization – Mitch Moncrieff
11:30 am
NAM biases in an NCEP
reanalysis-like ('reforecast')
model – Brian Mapes
11:50 am
Effects of
Assimilating Surface Measurements on the
North American Monsoon: A Case Study Using a Regional Climate Model
During the
NAME 2004 – Kiran Alapaty
12:10 am
Brief
Discussion: Summary and recommendations for NAME modeling – Kingtse Mo
12:30 pm
Adjourn
Appendix C. Contact Information
David
Ahijevych
MMM/NCAR
PO Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-8922
e-mail: ahijevyc at ucar.edu
Jorge
A. Amador
Center for Geophysical Research
University of Costa Rica
Ciudad Universitaria Rodrigo Facio San Pedro Apdo. 2060
San José
COSTA RICA
Phone: + 506 207 5320 or +506 207 5096
e-mail: jamador at
cariari.ucr.ac.cr
Tércio
Ambrizzi
University of Sao Paulo
Rua do Matao 1226 Sao Paulo
SP Brazil 05508-090
BRAZIL
Phone: +55 11 3091-4731
e-mail: ambrizzi
at
model.iag.usp.br
Karina
Apodaca
Atmospheric Sciences
Howard University
2331 15th NW Apt. 23
Washington, DC 20009
USA
Phone: (1) 202-387-7619
e-mail: kariapodaca at
yahoo.com
Josue
Beltran
INIFAP
Carretera Aguascalientes
Zacatecas, Pabellon de Arteaga
MEXICO
Phone: +449-996-4360
e-mail: storm_ica at
hotmail.com
Ernesto
Hugo Berbery
University of Maryland
Department of Meteorology
3427 CSS Bld #224
College Park, MD 20742
USA
Phone: (1) 301-405-5351
e-mail: berbery at atmos.umd.edu
Christopher
Bretherton
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
Box 351640
Seattle , WA 98195-1640
USA
Phone: (1) 206 685 7414
e-mail: breth at
atmos.washington.edu
Antonio
J. Busalacchi
University of Maryland/ESSIC
Room #2207 CSS Building #224
College Park , MD 20742
USA
Phone: (1) 301-405-5599
e-mail: tonyb at
essic.umd.edu
Marco
L. Carrera
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road Rm #605
Camp Springs , MD 20746
USA
Phone: (1) 301-763-8000 x7020
e-mail: Marco.Carrera at
noaa.gov
Leila Carvalho
Atmospheric Sciences
University of Sao Paulo USP
R. do matao, 1226
Sao Paulo , BRAZIL
Phone: +55 11 3097-4737
e-mail: leila
at model.iag.usp.br
Luis Brito
Castillo
CIBNOR SC Unidad Guaymas
Km. 2.35 camino al tular estero de bacochibampo
Guaymas 85454 Sonora
MEXICO
Phone: +52 622 22 1 22 38
e-mail: lbrito04
at cibnor.mx
Iracema F
A Cavalcanti
CPTEC/INPE
Rod. Presidente
Dutra Km 40 Cachoeira Paulista SP
BRAZIL
Phone: +55 12 31868478
e-mail: iracema at
cptec.inpe.br
Tereza Cavazos
CICESE
Km 107 Carretera
Tijuana-Ensenada B. C.
MEXICO
Phone: +646-1750500
e-mail: tcavazos
at cicese.mx
Paul
E. Ciesielski
Colorado State University
Department of Atmospheric Science
Ft. Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: 970-491-8252
e-mail: paulc at
atmos.colostate.edu
Miguel
Cortez-Vasquez
Servicio Meteorologico Nacional
Av. Observatorio
192 Col. Observatorio
Mexico D.F. 11860
MEXICO
Phone: +52 55-26364755
e-mail: mcortez at
mailsmn.cna.gob.mx
Linda
Cully
NCAR/EOL
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder , CO 80307
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-8163
e-mail: cully at ucar.edu
Michael
Douglas
National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069
USA
Phone: (1) 405-579-0872
e-mail: michael.douglas
at
noaa.gov
Arthur
V. Douglas
Atmospheric Sciences
Creighton University
2500 California Plaza
Omaha, NE 68178
USA
Phone: (1) 402-280-2464
e-mail: sonora at
creighton.edu
Carlos Ereño
ICPO
Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos
Universidad de Buenos Aires 2o piso Pabellon II
Ciudad Universitaria 1428
Buenos Aires
ARGENTINA
Phone: +17283
e-mail: Ereño at
fibertel.com.ar
Chris
Fairall
NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory
325 Broadway
Boulder , CO 80305
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-3253
e-mail: chris.fairall at
noaa.gov
Luis M.
Farfán
CICESE
Miraflores #334 23050 La Paz B.C.S.
MEXICO
Phone: +52 612 1213031 x112
e-mail: farfan
at cicese.mx
David
J. Gochis
NCAR RAO
3450 Mitchell Lane
Boulder, CO 80301
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-2809
e-mail: gochis at
rap.ucar.edu
Alice M. Grimm
Universidade Federal do Paraná
Departamento de Física
Caixa Postal 19044 81531-990 Curitiba - PR
Brazil
Phone: +55 41 361-3097
e-mail: grimm
at fisica.ufpr.br
Dr. Leslie
M. Hartten
CIRES University of Colorado
and NOAA/Aeronomy Lab
216 UCB
Boulder, CO 80309-0216
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-7052
e-mail: leslie.m.hartten
at
noaa.gov
Wayne
Higgins
NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, MD 20746
USA
Phone: (1) 301-763-8000 x7547
e-mail: wayne.higgins at
noaa.gov
Jin
Huang
Program Manager for GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP)
NOAA Office of Global Programs
1100 Wayne Ave., Ste. 1210
Silver Spring, MD 20910
USA
Phone: (1) 301-427-8089 x148
e-mail: jin.huang at noaa.gov
Tara
Jay
UCAR/JOSS
3300 Mitchell Lane
Boulder, CO 80307
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-8694
Israel Lozano
Jimenez
Xochitenco # 39. Col. San Agustin Atlapulco. Nezahualcoyot
Estado de Mexico. C.P. 57850
MEXICO
Phone: +52 5511081190
e-mail: ilozano
at correo.chapingo.mx
Richard
H. Johnson
Colorado State University
Atmospheric Science Dept.
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: (1) 970-491-8321
e-mail: johnson at
atmos.colostate.edu
Charles
Jones
ICESS University of California Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara , CA 93106
USA
Phone: (1) 805-893-5824
e-mail: cjones at
icess.ucsb.edu
Ben
Kirtman
Climate Dynamics GMU/COLA
4041 Powder Mill Road, 302
Calverton, MD 20705
USA
Phone: (1) 301-595-7000
e-mail: kirtman at
colal.iges.org
Timothy
Lang
Colorado State University
Dept of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
USA
Phone: (1) 970-491-6944
e-mail: tlang at
atmos.colostate.edu
Miguel F.
Lavin
CICESE
Km. 107 Carr. Tijuana-Ensenada
Ensenada Baja California
MEXICO
Phone: + 646-175-0500 x24061
e-mail: mlavin at cicese.mx
Myong-In
Lee
NASA/GSFC
Code 610.1
Greenbelt, MD 20771
USA
Phone: (1) 410-796-2411
e-mail: milee at
janus.gsfc.nasa.gov
David
M. Legler
U.S. CLIVAR Office
1717 Pennsylvania Ave NW Suite 250
Washington, DC 20006
USA
Phone: (1) 202 419-3471
e-mail: legler at
usclivar.org
Dennis
P. Lettenmaier
University of Washington
Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Box 352700
Seattle, WA 98195
USA
Phone: (1) 206-543-2532
e-mail: dennisl at
u.washington.edu
Brant
Liebmann
NOAA - University of Colorado Climate Diagnostics Center
R/CDC1 325 Broadway
Boulder , CO 80305-3328
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-6190
e-mail: brant.liebmann
at
noaa.gov
René Lobato
Sánchez
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua
Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532 Col. Progreso.
Jiutepec Morelos 62550
MEXICO
Phone: +52 (777) 3293629
e-mail: rlobato
at tlaloc.imta.mx
Scot
Loehrer
NCAR/EOL
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-2631
e-mail: loehrer at ucar.edu
Antonio Luna
MEXICO
e-mail: diazpeon
at yahoo.com
Victor
Magaña
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera UNAM
Ciudad Universitaria Mexico DF 04510
MEXICO
Phone: +52 55 56224088
e-mail: victormr at servidor.unam.mx
Brian
Mapes
University of Miami RSMAS
4600 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami , FL 3149
USA
Phone: (1) 305-421-4275
e-mail: mapes at miami.edu
Ricardo
Matano
College of Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR 97331
USA
Phone: (1) 541-737-2212
e-mail: matano at
coas.oregonstate.edu
José
Meitín
VAMOS Programs Office and NCAR/EOL
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-8168
e-mail: Meitín at ucar.edu
Mario
E. Mérida
Agregado para Asuntos Cientificos
U.S. Embassy
Paseo de la Reforma #305
Col. Cuauhtemoc
06500 Mexico, D.F.
MEXICO
Phone: + 52 55-5080-2641
e-mail: meridame at state.gov
Arthur
J. Miller
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Climate Research Division
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of California San Diego
CA 92093-0224
USA
Phone: (1) 858-534-8033
e-mail: ajmiller at ucsd.edu
Vasubandhu
Misra
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
COLA - Powder Mill Road, Suite 302
Calverton, MD 20705
USA
Phone: (1) 301-902-1265
e-mail: misra at
cola.iges.org
Kingtse
C. Mo
Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA
5200 Auth Rd.
Camp Springs, MD 20746
USA
Phone: (1) 301-763-8000 x7540
e-mail: kingtse.mo at
noaa.gov
Mitch
Moncrieff
NCAR/MMM
3450 Mitchell Lane
Boulder, CO 80301
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-8960
e-mail: moncrief at ucar.edu
Francisco
Muñoz-Arriola
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Duke University
Pratt School of Engineering
121 Hudson Hall
Box 90287
Duke University, NC 27708
USA
Phone: (1) 919-2869635
e-mail: fmunoz at duke.edu
Javier
Murillo
CIMMS/ University of Oklahoma
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069
USA
Phone: (1) 405-579-0874
e-mail: Javier.Murillo
at
noaa.gov
Paulo Nobre
CPTEC/INPE
Rodovia Presidente Dutra Km 40 Cachoeira Paulista
São Paulo 12630-000
BRAZIL
Phone: +55 12 3186-8425
e-mail: pnobre
at cptec.inpe.br
Carlos Nobre
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE
Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos - CPTEC
Rodovia Presidente Dutra Km 39 - Cachoeira Paulista
São Paulo 12630-000
BRAZIL
Phone: +5512 3186-9400
e-mail: nobre at
cptec.inpe.br
Julia
Nogues- Paegle
University of Utah
Meteorology Department 135 S 1460 E RM 819
Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0110
USA
Phone: (1) 801-581-7284
e-mail: jnpaegle at
met.utah.edu
Francisco
J. Ocampo-Torres
CICESE Oceans Division
km 107 Carretera Tijuana-Ensenada
Ensenada BC 22860
MEXICO
Phone: +52 646 175 0500 x24000
e-mail: ocampo at cicese.mx
Abel
Muñoz Orozco
Departamento de Genetica
Colegio de Posgraduados
Km 32 Carretera Mexico-Texcoco
Montesillo Estado de Mexico
CP. 56230
MEXICO
Phone: +52-59595-44894
e-mail: amunozo at colpos.mx
Mike
Patterson
NOAA Office of Global Programs
1100 Wayne Avenue Suite 1210
Silver Spring , MD 20910
USA
Phone: (1) 301-427-2089 x102
e-mail: michael.patterson
at
noaa.gov
José
Luis Pérez López
Instituto de Tecnología del Agua
Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532 Progreso
Jiutepec Mor. 62550
MEXICO
Phone: +52 777 329 3699 ext. 162
e-mail: jolperez at
tlaloc.imta.mx
Diana
R. Pozo Labrada
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera UNAM
Ciudad Universitaria 04510
Mexico DF
MEXICO
Phone: +52 55 56224248
e-mail: dianarpl
at yahoo.com
Graciela Raga
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera UNAM
Ciudad Universitaria 04510
Mexico DF
MEXICO
Phone: +52-55-5622-4248
e-mail: raga at
servidor.unam.mx
Edson
Ramirez
Instituto de Hidraúlica e Hidrología
Calle 30 Cota Cota Campus Universitario
CP 699
BOLIVIA
Phone: + 591-22795724
e-mail: eramirez
at acelerate.com
Humberto Ramos
Climatologia
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica
Balderas 71 Colonia Centro
Mexico City, DF MEXICO
Phone: +55 12 83 31 x7461
e-mail: humberto.ramos
at inegl.gob.mx
Andrea
Ray
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-6434
e-mail: andrea.ray
at
noaa.gov
Andrew
Robertson
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI)
Monell 230 61 Route 9W
Palisades, NY 10964
USA
Phone: (1) 845 680 4491
e-mail: awr at
iri.columbia.edu
José
A. Rutllant
Department of Geophysics
Universidad de Chile
Blanco Encalada 2002
Santiago CHILE
Phone: +56-2-6784563
e-mail: jrutllan at
dgf.uchile.cl
Karyn
Sawyer
NCAR/Earth Observatory Laboratory (EOL)
3300 Mitchell Lane
Boulder, CO 80301
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-8681
e-mail: karyn at ucar.edu
Jae-Kyung
E. Schemm
Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA
W/NP52 WWB 5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs , MD 20746
USA
Phone: (1) 301-763-8000 x7565
e-mail: jae.schemm at
noaa.gov
Siegfried
Schubert
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA/GSFC
NASA/GSFC Code 610.1
Greenbelt, MD 20771
USA
Phone: (1) 301 614-6145
e-mail: siegfried.d.schubert
at nasa.gov
Anji
Seth
Columbia University - IRI
IRI/LDEO
61 Route 9W
Palisades, NY 10964
USA
Phone: (1) 845-680-4419
e-mail: seth at
iri.columbia.edu
Dr.
Wei Shi
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center
WWB Rm. 605 5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, MD 20746
USA
Phone: (1) 301-763-8000 x7545
e-mail: wei.shi at noaa.gov
Rafael
Terra
IMFIA Universidad de la Republica
J. Herrera y Reissig 565
Montevideo 11300
URUGUAY
Phone: +598 2 711-5278 x123
e-mail: rterra at fing.edu.uy
Rafael
Trejo
INIFAP
Carretera Aguascalientes
Zacatecas, Pabellon de Arteaga
MEXICO
Phone: +449-996-4360
e-mail: rafael_treva
at
hotmail.com
Arturo
Valdes-Manzanilla
Universidad Juarez Autonoma de Tabasco
Circuito Melquiades Rueda # 21
MEXICO
Phone: + 993 3546071
e-mail: avmanzanilla
at
hotmail.com
Carolina
Vera
CIMA/University of Buenos Aires-CONICET
CIMA 2do. Piso Pab. II Ciudad Universitaria (1428)
Buenos Aires ARGENTINA
Phone: +54-11-47 87 26 93
e-mail: carolina
at cima.fcen.uba.ar
Yuqing
Wang
International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii
1680 East-West Road
Honolulu, HI 96822
USA
Phone: (1) 808-956-5609
e-mail: yuqing at hawaii.edu
David
Watkins
Michigan Tech University
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
400 Townsend Drive
Houghton , MI 49931
USA
Phone: (1) 906-487-1640
e-mail: dwatkins at mtu.edu
Chris
Watts
University of Sonora
Blvd. Encinas y
Rosales
Hermosillo, Sonora 83000
MEXICO
Phone: +52 662 259 2108
e-mail: watts
at fisica.uson.mx
Robert
Weller
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Clark 204a MS 29 WHOI
Woods Hole, MA 02543
USA
Phone: (1) 508-289-2508
e-mail: rweller at whoi.edu
Christopher
R. Williams
University of Colorado at Boulder and the NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory
Mail Stop R/AL3 325 Broadway
Boulder , CO 80305-3337
USA
Phone: (1) 303-497-3829
e-mail: christopher.r.williams
at noaa.gov
Man-Li
C. Wu
NASA/GSFC
NASA/GSFC Sciences and Exploration Dir
Greenbelt, MD USA
Phone: (1) 301-614-6249
e-mail: Man-Li.C.Wu
at
nasa.gov
Pingping
Xie
Climate Prediction Center
NOAA/NWS/NCEP
5200 Auth Road, #605
Camp Springs, MD 20746
USA
Phone: (1) 301-763-8000
e-mail: pingping.xie at
noaa.gov
Chidong
Zhang
RSMAS University of Miami
4600 Rickenbacker Causeway MPO
Miami , FL 22149
USA
Phone: (1) 305-361-4042
e-mail: czhang at
rsmas.miami.edu
Edward
J . Zipser
University of Utah
Dept. of Meteorology
135 S 1460 E Rm 819
Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0110
USA
Phone: (1) 801-585-9482
e-mail: ezipser at
met.utah.edu