The NAME 2004 Data Analysis and Seventh NAME Science Working Group Meeting (SWG-7) was held 9-11 March, 2005 in Mexico City, Mexico. The meeting brought together participants from the NAME 2004 field campaign and those intending to use the data in follow-on modeling and prediction activities aimed at accelerating improvements in warm season precipitation forecasts, products and applications.

The objectives of the workshop were to review the NAME 2004 Enhanced Observing Period (EOP), including the status and quality of the NAME 2004 data sets, and to review progress on NAME modeling and diagnostic studies (including climate model assessments, climate data assimilation, climate forecast system development). The NAME SWG was also asked to make recommendations for a course of action to accelerate the transition of this research into improved operational climate forecasts, products and applications in concert with the emerging NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB). These and other recommendations appear as a list of ACTION ITEMS in the next subsection.

The expected outcome of the NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 meeting is a report that summarizes (i) the contents of the NAME 2004 data set, including dates of deliverables; (ii) NAME 2004 value added products; (iii) the strategy for post NAME 2004 modeling and data assimilation activities to improve simulations and predictions of warm season precipitation with coupled climate models; and (iv) a list of "Synthesis Products" that are expected to emerge from NAME and the plans for achieving them.

This report discusses progress on these items. It includes a list of ACTION items and summaries of the oral presentations. The Meeting Agenda, which was organized into six sessions (NAME 2004 overview; NAME 2004 Field Observations; NAME Diagnostic Studies; SWG-7 Executive Session; NAME Applications; Plans for using NAME 2004 Data in Modeling ) is given in Appendix B. The Agenda and presentations are also available on the NAME webpage: www.eol.ucar.edu/projectsprojects//name/dm/NAME_data_agenda.html

Special thanks are extended to our sponsors [OGP / CPPA (Jin Huang, Mike Patterson), US CLIVAR (David Legler), WCRP (Valery Detemmerman, Howard Cattle)], our local hosts [SMN (Miguel Cortez, Michel Rosengaus)] and those who provided logistical support for the meeting [ SMN ( Miguel Cortez), NCAR/EOL (Gus Emmanuel, José Meitín), UCAR (Gene Martin, Tara Jay), WCRP (Carlos Ereño)

ACTION ITEMS:

The following Action Items resulted from the NAME 2004 Data Analysis and Seventh NAME Science Working Group (SWG-7) Meeting. They are organized into several categories: Documentation; Datasets; Modeling and Applications; Publications; Education Module; Meetings; and SWG Rotation. NAME SWG members, and NAME PIs are expected to contribute to the completion of these Actions.

Documentation

Action 1 Prepare and distribute NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 Meeting Report (Higgins and SWG).

Action 2 Update and disseminate NAME Science and Implementation Plan (Higgins and SWG).

Action 3 Develop a list of NAME “Synthesis Products” that are expected to emerge from NAME and the plans for achieving them (SWG)

Action 4 Revise NAME milestones to make NAME Tier 3 activities more visible and explicit

Datasets

Action 5 Evaluate progress on the development of the NAME post-field phase data set, including dates of deliverables (SWG)

Action 6 Evaluate progress on NAME 2004 value added products (SWG)

Modeling and Applications

Action 7 Update strategy in NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation “White Paper” (Mo, SWG)

Action 8 Establish protocols, expand participation and carry out NAMAP2 (Gutzler, Mo, Schemm, Shi, Higgins).

Publications

Action 9 Publish an article entitled “The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) 2004 Field Campaign and Modeling Strategy” in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (Higgins, SWG, NAME PIs).

Action 10 Contribute to a Special Issue of the Journal of Climate on NAME (SWG, PIs).

Education Module

Action 11 Release "beta-version" of NAME “Reports to the Nation” monograph at the NOAA booth during the March 31-April 3 National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) Annual Conference in Dallas Texas. Distribute Questionaire for teachers to evaluate the document (OGP)

Action 12 Hold focused workshop in Tucson, AZ during the summer of 2005 inviting teachers that responded to the questionnaire (Action 1.10) in order to solicit more specific input on the use of the NAM Monograph and the lesson plans being developed by Steve Uyeda (OGP)

Action 13                             Post photos from NAME 2004 on the NCAR/EOl web site so that they can be incorporated into the NAME “Reports to the Nation” monograph.

Action 14                       Work with Steve Uyeda to complete remaining 6 of 10 lesson plans for NAME

                        curriculum unit.

Action 15 Hold NAME Session at March 2006 NSTA Annual Conference focused on the North American Monsoon Presentations by NAME scientists. Walk through the education materials

Meetings

Action 16 Coordinate the Eighth NAME Science Working Group Meeting with the 9^th VAMOS Panel Meeting in Foz do Iguazu, Brazil (March 2006).

Action 17 Coordinate future NAME SWG meetings with VAMOS Panel Meetings (Higgins, SWG).

Action 18 Organize a Special Session on NAME 2004 and NAME Modeling Activities at 30^th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, State College PA (24-28 October, 2005).

SWG Rotation

Action 19 Carry out the NAME SWG 2005 membership rotation (Higgins, SWG)

Action 20 Modify ToR for rotation of the NAME SWG chair (SWG)

1. Session Summaries

Dr. Miguel Cortez opened the NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 meeting by welcoming everyone and making everyone feel at home. Everyone agreed that the facilities were excellent and appreciated the attention to detail by the SMN.

Dr. Michel Rosengaus, Director of the SMN, discussed why the North American monsoon is important for the National Water Commission of Mexico (the CNA). He also prepared a speech (delivered at the 8^th VAMOS Panel meeting earlier in the week) that poignantly describes his interactions with the CNA, with emphasis on user needs for improved North American warm season precipitation forecasts. A copy of Dr. Rosengaus’s speech is found in Appendix A.

Wayne Higgins also welcomed everyone to the meeting, and provided special thanks to the local hosts. He discussed the goal of the meeting, which was to bring together the participants from NAME 2004 and those intending to use the NAME 2004 data in follow-on modeling and prediction activities aimed at accelerating improvements in warm season precipitation forecasts, products and applications. Higgins also discussed the expected outcome of the meeting, which included this meeting report (see section 1.4 for details). Next Higgins presented a tribute to all of the NAME 2004 participants, which literally numbered into the hundreds. Finally, Higgins concluded his presentation by dedicating the meeting to Dr. Gandikota V. Rao (1934-2004).

1.1 NAME 2004 Overview (Chair: A. Douglas)

The introductory comments were followed by a short overview session that provided general information on NAME 2004, the NAME Forecast Operations Center, and NAME Project Office activities, including the NAME field data catalog and data management. Much of this information has been presented in earlier SWG meetings and SWG meeting reports (see the NAME webpage). A few key details are summarized below.

Title: NAME 2004 Overview

Author: W. Higgins, CPC

This talk summarized the various activities of NAME. Higgins stressed that NAME activities have been formulated to improve our physical understanding of the monsoon in southwestern North America and to determine the degree of predictability of warm season precipitation through critical areas of North America. Perhaps the most unique characteristic of the program, aside from its joint CLIVAR-GEWEX heritage, is that NAME modeling and field activities have been planned in tandem. NAME 2004 enhanced observations were motivated, in part, by model assessment activities (such as NAMAP) in advance of the field campaign. This rich data set will continue to be employed in modeling and data assimilation studies towards improved understanding and more realistic simulations of the monsoon. These efforts are especially germane to the new NOAA Climate Test Bed initiative. Given the high temporal resolution of the NAME data sets, the diurnal cycle should now be resolved more accurately and this in turn should lead to a better understanding of prediction problems associated with the NAM.

More than 30 universities and government laboratories in the U.S., Mexico, Belize and Costa Rica participated in the NAME 2004 field experiment. A host of equipment was supported by NAME (see the NCAR/EOL/NAME website for the field and data catalogs). NAME Intensive Observing Periods (IOPs) were aimed at sampling a number of key synoptic and mesoscale features that are typical of the monsoon in Northwest Mexico, including (1) monsoon onset, (2) low-level circulations associated with MCCs, outflow boundaries and gulf surges, (3) broad scale moisture transport associated with easterly waves and tropical storms, and (4) rainfall patterns and variability across the NAME domain. Nine successful Intensive Observing Periods (IOPs) aimed at these features were called in July and August and a tenth IOP was called in September to observe the landfall of Hurricane Javier.

NAME leaves a template for future observing systems that might be designed for monitoring the NAM. The data sets provides the research community with a more comprehensive understanding of climate variability and predictability across the NAM region. The experiment has strengthened international collaboration across Pan America, especially between participating operational and research groups. The NAME modeling strategy provides a template for improved simulations and predictions of the monsoon system and its variability with coupled models.

Title: NAME 2004 Forecast Operations Center

Author: E. Pytlak

Erik Pytlak presented an overview of the NAME Forecast Operations Center. The success of the center during the NAME 2004 Field Campaign can be attributed to the practice forecasting that took place during the summer of 2003. Bob Maddox arranged for a practice “run” of forecasting during this period. Kinks were ironed out relative to the development of forecast zones in Tier I, class limit guidance for the forecast zones (to aid forecasters with little experience in forecasting monsoon precipitation in Mexico) and zone verification procedures. Key synoptic features or events that might be forecast during NAME were also determined during the practice forecast period. During the practice run, ties were developed with CPC, SPC, NHC and the SMN. This helped to develop logistics for daily briefings between these centers. A number of forecaster exchanges also took place in 2003 between NWS and SMN personnel which helped to build knowledge and promote confidence in the joint forecast activities that took place in 2004.

Pytlak noted that the wet bias of the forecasts in 2003 was not as evident in 2004 and the overall skill scores of the forecasters improved in 2004. It was felt that real-time verification efforts aided the shift forecasters. The 5-day rotation period was somewhat short for the 32 FOC forecasters, but this rotation was unavoidable given constraints on NWS forecasters. A number of forecasters participated in a daily remote forecasting exercise via the NCAR/EOL/NAME webpage. It was noted that this type of remote forecast project appears to have value and should be considered in future field projects. Differences were noted in 2004 verification efforts when comparing station data forecast zone mean rainfall to the grid point derived forecast zone means. Pytlak noted that a number of field offices are now conducting research on synoptic features that were key to the NAME field experiment and some of these projects include: research on inverted troughs, backdoor cold fronts, and flash flood signatures in New Mexico.

Challenges for the FOC included difficulties with real time verification, and a language barrier between Spanish and English speaking forecasters. As the field experiment began to wind down (IOP days being used up) the number of remote forecasters decreased though the forecast center remained in full operation to support the tenth IOP during mid-September.

Title: NAME 2004 Project Office Activities

Author: C.B. Emmanuel

Gus Emmanuel presented an overview of NAME 2004 Field support by the VAMOS Project Office. The project office coordinated procurement of science permits, customs clearances and shipping of instrumentation into Mexico. Emmanuel noted that the SMN office and the American Embassy were helpful in last minute efforts to secure permits and to get equipment across the border. The office also assisted in the set up of the WP-3D site, and coordinated participation of the Mexican Navy ship Altair during the campaign. The project office helped coordinate Forecast Operations Center activities in Tucson and the aircraft operations center in Mazatlan. A series of pre-field experiment meetings were also coordinated through NCAR/EOL. Current NAME efforts are focused on the archival and quality control of NAME 2004 observations.

Title: NAME 2004 Field Data Catalog / Data Management Activities

Authors: J. Meitín, S. Loehrer and L. Cully

José Meitín gave an overview of the NAME 2004 Field Catalog maintained at NCAR/EOL. To date, NCAR/EOL has archived over 150,000 products associated with the NAME field experiment. Major data sets include NAME field and operations reports and products, model data sets, research project and mission tables, CPC verification products, NCEP operational analyses, observed precipitation data sets and satellite data sets. Meitín showed several examples of data sets and graphics that are currently available, including S-Pol radar data, SMN radar data with digitizers, CSU profiler data, and Vaisala low frequency lightning data at 5 minute intervals. NCAR/EOL is currently developing the metadata associated with the instrument sites and the quality control of the data sets.

NCAR/EOL data management was also instrumental in procuring data via ftp links to other servers (e.g. SST data sets, Quicksat winds). Numerous upper air datasets are archived (SMN countrywide radiosonde network, NWS network in the Southwestern U.S., the ISS (Glass) sites along the Gulf, Belize City (Belize), San José (Costa Rica), Phoenix (Salt River Project) and Yuma Proving Grounds). Surface data from the SMN (observatories, airports and automatic station sties) and the US Mesonets are also being archived for NAME. Meitín presented a detailed day-by-day overview of data set inventories for the NAME experiment (June 1-September 30, 2004) and prominent spikes in the quantity of data available are noted for all of the IOPs during NAME. It was stressed that PIs need to follow the guidelines for submitting data to NCAR/EOL in order to have standard metadata formats for the field data sets and to help maintain usable data formats for the scientific community.

High resolution radiosonde data are now on line from the RV Altair, NWS sties, Phoenix, San José (Costa Rica), and from the NCAR/EOL ISS and Glass sites. NCAR/EOL is currently working on the radiosonde data from the SMN and Belize. The NOAA/NSSL Pibal data sets and tethersonde data sets from Tesopaco are not available yet. During the meeting Victor Magaña provided NCAR/EOL with high resolution rawinsonde, pibal and tethersonde data collected from the RV El Puma. In all, NCAR/EOL collected almost 6,000 high resolution soundings from 31 platforms. NCAR/EOL is still trying to work with the SMN on securing the Mexican Navy’s data set from 16 operational sites in coastal Mexico. NCAR/EOL will also procure the GPS PW data sets processed for the NAME Tier I region by the University of Arizona. Additional post-processing efforts include a 5mb upper air data set (CSU and Pibal data sets), a surface composite data set (hourly and daily) and a precipitation data set (updated data as well as new data).

1.2 NAME 2004 Field Observations (Chair: D. Gochis)

Session 2 focused on the current status of NAME 2004 Field Observations. Thirteen investigators made presentations on their activities during NAME 2004 and their ongoing efforts to process, quality control (QC) and analyze the data. All investigators were asked to estimate when their data would be uploaded to the NCAR/EOL NAME data archive (www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name); this information is included in the summaries of each presentation below.

Title: NAME enhanced sounding network: Performance and results.

Authors: Paul Ciesielski and Richard Johnson, Colorado State University (CSU)

A brief overview of the operational, real-time sounding network was provided. While this included operational soundings from the U.S. NWS and Mexico SMN, emphasis was placed on the data collected at the NCAR Integrated Sounding System (ISS) sites at Puerto Peñasco, Kino Bay and Los Mochis as well as the NCAR GLASS site at Loreto. Sounding data from the RV Altair was also discussed. Limited QC was performed in real-time and the available data were objectively analyzed onto a (lon,lat)=(1°x1°) grid at 25 mb pressure intervals. All products are available as images on a CSU website linked to the NAME Field Data Catalog together with inventories of reporting stations. The sounding analysis system ran for 46 days and missing soundings accounted for about 4% of the total number of planned soundings. Ongoing planned activities include a comprehensive QC of all of the enhanced sounding data, and development of a final version of the gridded analyses at various spatial and temporal resolutions for different domains within the NAME region, with particular emphasis on the budget hexagon in the central-southern Gulf of California. These research-quality gridded analyses will use rawinsonde data, and whenever possible, pibal soundings, profiler winds, Quikscat surface winds and aircraft data. Preliminary diagnostic analyses averaged over the enhanced budget array highlighted large differences between continental and maritime averaged profiles. The quality-controlled individual sounding data at 5-mb vertical resolution is expected to be ready by early-summer with the complete gridded products to follow within 3 to 6 months.

Title: NWS & SMN soundings and SMN participation

Authors: Art Douglas, Creighton University and Miguel Cortez, SMN

SMN is currently securing all radiosonde data from SMN sites in Mexico from 15 June – 3 Sept. (Note: Budget cuts to SMN in FY05 may curtail soundings at several sites during the summer of 2005. These sites include Cancun, Zacatecas, Isla Socorro, Torreon, Guadalajara and Guaymas/Empalme). In addition to soundings, surface meteorology was collected at several SMN automated weather station sites and are to be integrated into the NAME data archive. A special observing network of temperature and relative humidity sensors was deployed in conjunction with NERN activities. These special sites, when combined with NERN data provide temperature (T), dewpoint temperature (Td) and precipitation measurements every 30 min, thus allowing for reasonable representation of the diurnal cycle. Preliminary diagnostics showed a dramatic increase of Td coincident with the onset of the monsoon at Mazocauhui, Sonora from -8°C to 16°C. Other features such as the passage of Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) could also be detected and analyzed from the T/Td-precipitation observing sites. A negative correlation between surface temperature and day of year (DOY) was noted which was thought to be heavily influenced by the ‘green-up’ of the regional vegetation as evidenced by animations of a remotely sensed Normalized Ddifferential Vegetation Index (NDVI). This relationship seemed to be most evident along the low elevations west of the Sierra Madre Occidental and towards the drier eastern side while the steep escarpment and high elevation pine forest regions showed little correlation. It was also noted that the remnants of hurricane Javier dropped very large amounts of rain in the Tier 1 region during mid-September. Rainfall data from the SMN and CNA sites is being integrated within the GASIR inventory. A preliminary analysis of this station data versus the operational CPC gridded product revealed a propensity for the CPC product to overestimate low elevation precipitation along the coastal regions and to underestimate precipitation along the high elevation terrain. Data from the T/Td network, the SMN automated weather stations and the GASIR raingauge archive should be available on the NCAR/EOL website within 1-2 weeks.

Title: PIBAL network/ and special raingauge measurements

Author: Michael Douglas, NOAA-NSSL

The PIBAL network consisted of a nested implementation of one network (‘vegetation network’, 7 sites), to observe the structure of the atmosphere around the central-southern Gulf of California region, while the larger network (‘synoptic network’, 23 sites) encompassed nearly all of NAME Tier I. The synoptic network was operated for approximately 4 months from June through September. The vegetation network operated with increased frequency to capture the diurnal cycle during daylight hours. On average approximately 30 observations were taken a day among the different sites. Preliminary diagnostics from the 12-13 July IOP were shown. Time-height cross-sections showed southeasterly morning average winds at Hermosillo at about 300m AGL while afternoon winds showed a much stronger inland wind component. Similar behavior present at 500m AGL. Data from the vegetation flux network, consisting of a large deployment of simple wedge-accumulation raingauges, showed that there is a difference in the month when the maximum amount of precipitation occurred with inland sites peaking in July and coastal sites peaking in August. Tethersonde measurements, made at Tezopaco, Sonora are currently being processed. Graphics of data from the PIBALS are currently available on the NSSL PACS sonnet website. Data from the PIBALS are expected to be delivered to NCAR/EOL in approximately 2 months while the tethersonde data are expected in approximately 3 months.

Title: Research aircraft operations and results

Author: Michael Douglas, NOAA-NSSL

Aircraft operations during the 2004 field campaign were primarily focused on mesoscale and synoptic scale aspects of the thermodynamic structure over the Gulf of California. Seventy research hours were allocated into 10 flights of approximately 7 hours each. The stated program objectives were to obtain better moisture flux estimates (or dry air intrusions) intruding on the Gulf of California from the Eastern Pacific, better measurement of the GoC low level jet (LLJ), genesis conditions for gulf surges, the land-sea breeze along the eastern coast of the GoC and the planetary boundary layer structure over the Gulf and adjacent coastal plain. Flights were nearly always done in a continuous porpoising mode varying in altitude from 150 m to 2-3 km ASL. Continuous NW flow was observed off the west coast of Baja California and these observations should help in the development of an integrated lower troposphere moisture flux analysis product. Some flight legs were repeated to capture multiple samples from a particular site of interest such as the central gulf region. Both enhanced and depressed precipitation days were sampled with flight missions. Future activities include several kinds of diagnostic studies of features such as the LLJ and surge genesis. Aircraft data should also be useful in validating model output. One preliminary conclusion was that the LLJ winds appeared to be strongest over the center of the Gulf of California away from topography indicating that the jet does not appear to be generated by classical ‘terrain slope-jet’ dynamics. Graphics of data from the flights are currently available on the NSSL website and in the NCAR/EOL Field Data catalog and the data are already available at NCAR/EOL.

Title: Overview of wind/flux/radiation observations at the ETL/AL flux site:

Author: Leslie Hartten: CIRES-Univ. of Colorado and NOAA Aeronomy Lab

Dynamical and thermodynamical data from the NOAA supersite near Estacion Obispo, Sinaloa were collected during NAME 2004. Planned re-deployments of the supersite during 2005 and 2006 should help bound the 2004 measurements and provide a crude estimate of interannual variability. The site was located 145 km NNW of Mazatlan, approximately 25 km from both the coast of the Gulf of California and the foothills of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Data from the site included soil temperature and soil moisture, net radiation, soil heat flux, surface meteorology and eddy covariance heat and moisture fluxes, 915–MHz wind and virtual temperature profiles, and GPS precipitable water. A 449-MHz profiler, deployed for precipitation characterization, was also operated in a wind mode, but there were some technical problems with the setup; work is underway to correct for them, but it is not certain that good wind data will be extractable. A calendar of data availability has been created showing days in which various platforms were operational. The permit problems forced deployment to be delayed until mid-July, and large convective storms did occasionally knock out the power supply to the site. However, 49-69 days worth of data were collected by the primary platforms by the time operations concluded on 20 September. Much of the surface meteorological, ceilometer, and 915-MHz profiler data are currently available from PI Clark King (Clark.W.King@noaa.gov). The surface flux, soil moisture, and radiation data should be available within one month (May 1). Results from the 449-MHz profiler should be available by mid-summer, 2005. Data and metadata will be posted on the NCAR/EOL web site by the end of May. Initial diagnostics from the 915-MHz profiler were discussed and time-height cross-sections revealed a mean diurnal cycle consisting of inland flow extending up to 1 km with winds aloft becoming more southerly. There was a weak land breeze at night at low levels while upper levels exhibited more transience. Future analyses and sampling will focus on the diurnal cycle of the various data collected and their modulation by mesoscale transients such as gulf surges.

Title: NAME event raingauge network: Results and legacy issues

Authors: David Gochis, NCAR; Chris Watts, Jaime Garatuza, Julio Rodriguez,

The NERN was expanded by 6 additional gauges in 2004 which were targeted at improving coverage underneath the SMN precipitation radars at Obregon and Guasave. Data from the 2004 field season has undergone a preliminary QC and has been posted to NCAR/EOL as a provisional dataset for use by other NAME PIs. A new feature of this year’s QC was a “gross-error” check to the data in which large events were flagged and the raw data records were manually inspected for plausibility. The NERN is now in the process of being merged with other automated rain gauge data sets from 2004 and will eventually be part of an enhanced resolution hourly gridded product produced at NOAA/CPC. Analysis products from 2004 were compared with those from 2003, revealing that precipitation in 2004 was generally greater in most locations in the NERN sampling domain. Integrating data from 2002-2004 resulted in further smoothing of the diurnal cycle of precipitation products. The segregation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensity from the 0-500m elevation band from the rest of the network was presented as a distinguishing feature of the precipitation regime. This elevation band possessed the strongest precipitation intensities and strongest nocturnal precipitation signal and thus is suspected to have a greater maritime influence than those sites at higher elevations and further inland. Regional composites also revealed that averaged hourly precipitation intensities appeared to be higher in 2004 than in 2003 thus contributing to greater seasonal totals. NAME investigators using the NERN data are encouraged to contact the NERN team if they encounter any suspect precipitation estimates.

Title: NAME simple raingauge network

Authors: René Lobato, IMTA, Wayne Higgins, Wei Shi

The main objective for the project is to install approximately 1,100 gauges in the states of Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa and Baja California. The data from the sites is not yet collected so the presentation focused on the plan for collection, QC and distribution to SMN and NOAA-CPC. Various agencies within Sonora are donating infrastructure, particularly communications. Data from most of the currently installed sites is now being reported daily to the collaborating agencies. The gauges used in this project are graduated cylinder funneled gauges with overflow containers similar to those used at NOAA cooperative sites. In addition to daily radio-reported values, hard copy archives are being kept. A simple user manual is distributed with each gauge upon installation and each gauge is GPS located. At present, 300 gauges have been installed. The plan for data flow is to have the data entered into a PC by the collaborating collection agencies and then sent to IMTA and SMN. Attempts are underway to standardize the data formats. IMTA has already created a simple MSWindows application for collectors to log in data. The planned network should provide good ‘in-filling’ with existing CNA/GASIR daily observation networks. The fully-integrated data collection system should be operational by the 2005 rainy season, with a goal of trying to provide much of the data in a daily operational capacity. Attempts are also underway to provide some sites with thermometers. Special note was given to the many people, volunteers and inhabitants of the region in which the first deployment of rain gauges was made. The assistance of these people was found to be exceptionally genuine and absolutely critical to the projects success.

Title: Profiler-based precipitation observations at the ETL/AL flux site

Author: Christopher Williams, NOAA ETL/AL

At the NOAA supersite several instruments were used to observe the vertical structure of precipitating cloud systems and estimate the vertical profile of hydrometeor drop size distributions (DSDs). The principal instruments in this effort were the 449 MHz profiler and the 2875MHz vertically pointing profiler. The systems identified 23 rain events and images and animations are available on the NOAA ETL/AL website. Specific measurements included reflectivity, Doppler velocity, and spectrum variance. Calibration of the profiler reflectivities using SPol radar data are expected to become available by June. A more thorough analysis of the DSD measured from the profilers is expected by August. Other data will be released as available.

Title: Vegetation feedback and soil moisture projects

Authors: Chris Watts, U. Sonora, Michael Douglas NOAA NSSL

Two U.S. and 3 Mexican institutions operated 8 flux sites during NAME 2004 (3 sites in Mexico and 5 sites in Arizona). NDVI imagery sequences highlighted the dramatic green-up of the region surrounding the Tezopaco and Rayon, Sonora sites. 2003 data from Arizona show a very clear decrease in vapor pressure deficit in response to the onset of the monsoon. Initial data from Tezopaco in 2004 show significant contrasts between pre- and post-onset conditions and flux sites. The tower at Tezopaco was situated within and above the tropical deciduous forest. The Rayon site was situated in a subtropical scrub site. The third site at La Pintada was situated in desert scrub and buffel grass. July-September evapotranspiration measured 251 mm at Tezopaco, 139 mm at Rayon and 90 mm (July, August only) at La Pintada. The fraction of ET/precipitation was found to be relatively constant between the sites ranging from 0.53-0.63. One particularly interesting finding from 2004 was that while measured ET varies in close correspondence with precipitation the NDVI values do not seem to vary appreciably. Data from the flux towers is expected to be available during the summer of 2004.

Title: SMEX04

Authors: Francisco Muñoz, Duke Univ.; Tom Jackson, USDA; and Dennis Lettenmaier, UW,

The main goal of the SMEX program is to improve the mapping of soil moisture in the North American Monsoon region. The SMEX program ran from 2 – 27 August 2004 after being delayed from mid-July by aircraft mechanical problems. Two domains were sampled; one encompassing the Walnut Gulch (USDA/ARS experimental watershed) region in southeastern Arizona and the second in northern Sonora. The primary remote sensing platforms were a NRL P3 (flying both C- and L-band passive microwave radiometers) and the Aqua satellite AMSR-E (10 GHz band). Surface sites included micrometeorology and multilevel manual and automated soil moisture measurements. Flight operations were scheduled, to the extent possible, to follow rainfall events. AMSR-E overpasses (about every two days) will provide coincident retrievals at much coarser spatial resolution (roughly 25 km). The aircraft instruments provide products with a 3 km spatial resolution.. Unfortunately, the largest rainfall events during the sampling period at Walnut Gulch were modest (maximum 24-hour precipitation about 6 mm). although rainfall amounts at the northern Sonora site (Rayon tower) were much larger – about 25 mm on Aug 6, 28 mm on Aug 7, and 9 mm on Aug 13. Ongoing activities include the processing of aircraft data, satellite soil moisture processing and processing and QC of all ground-based measurements. Once completed the data will be archived to the National Snow and Ice Data Center archive to which NCAR/EOL will direct users form the NAME data archive. The SMEX group has an upcoming meeting in Phoenix during May 2005 and plans are being made to have a special issue of a yet to be determined journal on SMEX results. Some point measurements may become available to the community by the time of the May meeting.

Title: Oceanographic measurements aboard the R.V. Altair:

Author: Chris Fairall, NOAA ETL

The R/V Altair completed two cruises during the 2004 field campaign between 7 July and 12 Aug. The ship was deployed to a quasi-stationary location at the mouth of the Gulf of California. Shipboard measurements included 915-MHz wind profile measurements, rawinsondes, air-sea fluxes, near surface meteorology, precipitation and conductivity-temperature-density (CTD) measurements. Preliminary diagnostic analyses showed that the top of the marine boundary layer is typically less than 1000m ASL while additional shallow inversions typical of elevated residual layers were encountered at higher altitudes. The typical time of convective precipitation at the Altair was found to be around 7-8 a.m. local time. Several surge events were documented during the field campaign. Comparisons of water, air and radiative temperature measurements showed that the radiative temperature was cooler than the 2 cm depth water temperature by about 2-3 degrees. The diurnal cycle of 2 cm depth water temperature was also found to be on the order of 2-3 degrees. Other data products from the shipboard platforms include time series of surface heat and moisture fluxes, solar radiation, and ocean heat flux. Cloud radiative forcing was also calculated. Observations of the diurnal cycle of IR cloud forcing suggests that cloud fraction is greatest at night and early morning and skies tend to be clear by 1500 local time. There was an apparent decrease in aerosol concentration throughout the field campaign as inferred from deviations of observed incoming solar radiation from a presumed clear sky model estimate. Raw data from the shipboard platforms are available on the NOAA ETL ftp site which is linked through the NOAA ETL/AL website.

Title: Oceanographic measurements (CICESE)

Authors: Miguel Lavin and Tereza Cavazos, CICESE, Michael Douglas, NOAA-NSSL

The R/V Ulloa made two separate cruises within the Gulf of California; 5-21 June and 6-22 August. The first cruise included several transects along the southern end of the Gulf of California. During the first cruise 174 CTD casts were made, 17 drifters were deployed and 50 soundings were made (26 with wind measurements and 24 without). Cold water intrusion from the Eastern Pacific was measured and wind analyses revealed flow from the southwest overlying the cold tongue. The average latent heat flux in this region was ~ 94 W/m². Several animations were presented which illustrated the movement of the drifters northward, up the Gulf of California. From these animations it took a drifter approximately 2 weeks to traverse from the mouth of the Gulf to north of Isla Tiburon (central Sonora). Higher latent heat values were observed during the second cruise as were much slower drifter speeds. One conclusion from this study was that a lot of the seasonal heating in the Gulf of California is through advection from warmer regions further south. Soundings, PIBALS and tethersonde measurements were also made aboard the CISESE vessel during both cruises. Soundings were made 4x daily with the 5am and 5pm soundings containing wind, temperature and humidity measurements while the other two soundings only contained temperature and humidity measurements. During the first cruise it was found the marine layer was quite shallow with a height of around 300m ASL and multiple inversion structures existed above. The second cruise showed a marked change in upper level winds from west to east occurring sometime between June and August. The marine layer inversion was less frequently observed during the August cruise than during the June cruise. Data from the shipboard instruments, soundings and drifters will be uploaded to NCAR/EOL by the end of April.

Title: S-Pol Data Collection and the SMN Radar Network

Author: Tim Lang, CSU

The NCAR S-band dual polarized Doppler radar was deployed near the coastal town of La Cruz, Sinaloa from 8 July through 21 August. Two modes of operation were used; a climatology mode (with a 200km range) and a storm microphysics mode (150 km range). Rain maps were created every 15 min in coordination with SMN radar scans. Work is currently underway to process and quality control the SPol data after encountering delays in acquiring the data from NCAR/ATD. In addition to rainfall estimates, calculations of Kdp (specific phase propagation), beam blockage and beam attenuation are also being made. The SMN radars operated as follows: Los Cabos - 15 July through the fall; Guasave - 10 June through the fall. Failure of a transmitter power supply at Obregon, resulted in a lack of data from that site. The SMN radar at El Palmito, Durango suffered a lightning strike prior to the field campaign and fuel shortages during the field campaign and was not fully operational for portions of the field campaign. All radar mosaics will therefore contain data only from the SPol, Guasave and Los Cabos radars. Cartesian gridded composites are being developed using the radar mosaics and will have 15min time resolution and 1, 2 and 5 km grid spacings. An SPol only product is also being planned which will have a 0.5 km horizontal and vertical resolution along with hydrometeor identification. A case study from a storm event on 5 August, 2230-0330 UTC was presented which corresponded with IOP 7. It was observed that stratiform precipitation was not very closely connected with intense convective cells and that in general the MCS did not exhibit as well organized behavior as is commonly observed in MCSs in higher latitudes such as the U.S. Great Plains. An example of hydrometeor classification from the SPol radar was also provided which highlighted a deep region of hail and an associated bright band region of melting hail which induced a phase shift in the radar retrieved reflectivities. The hail was estimated to be of 2 cm in diameter above the melt layer and it was noted that large hail signal returns were commonly observed over the mountains of the Sierra Madre east of the SPol radar site. Rain rates up to 100 mm/hr were observed with the SPol radar. The CSU group is also working in collaboration with the NERN groups and the NHWG in the development of river basin average precipitation products for basins underneath the radar scanning umbrellas. Planned work includes using the mosaic products for diagnostic studies on the diurnal cycle, spatial variability of precipitation, vertical structure, mesoscale organization mechanisms such as easterly waves, convective versus stratiform precipitation comparisons and continental versus maritime precipitation regimes. The radar group is also collaborating with gage-based precipitation teams and the NOAA supersite team in the cross validation of precipitation estimates from the various platforms. Estimated delivery of the gridded radar composites in NetCDF format to NCAR/EOL is expected to occur by mid-summer 2005.

1.3 NAME Diagnostic Studies (Chair: R. Johnson)

Title: Assessment of NCEP data assimilation systems during NAME04

Author: Kingtse Mo, CPC

During NAME04 EOP period (1 July – 15 August 2004) additional upper-air soundings from the United States and Mexico over the Tier I area were archived at the CPC/NCEP. A data-impact study has been organized that will perform data assimilation both with and without these soundings using both NCEP global and regional analysis systems. NCEP global systems: CDAS (200-km horizontal resolution and 28 levels in the vertical) and GDAS (50-km horizontal resolution and 64 vertical levels) and two regional systems: RCDAS (32 km and 45 vertical levels) and EDAS (12 km and 60 vertical levels). For the coarse resolution CDAS system, the data impact of the NAME soundings on both forecasts and analyses is small and limited to the Tier 1 area. The coarse resolution model is not able to take advantage of the additional soundings. A model with 50-km horizontal resolution or finer is needed to study the impact of the NAME soundings. For the RCDAS, the soundings improve the winds and specific humidity over the Tier I region. The low level moisture transport from the Gulf of California to the Southwest also shows substantial improvement. Future work: Perform a data-impact study using the 12-km Eta model; CDAS, RCDAS and EDAS data-impact studies using all NAME 2004 sounding data, once it becomes available.

Title: Diurnal Cycle of Cloudiness and Precipitation using Satellite Observations

Author: Pingping Xie, CPC

The diurnal cycle of NAMS cloud and precipitation fields were examined over Mexico and the southwestern US for warm seasons 2003 and 2004 using the global full- resolution IR data of Janowiak et al. (2001), the CMORPH satellite precipitation of Joyce et al. (2004), and the 3-dimensional precipitation data observed by the TRMM precipitation radar. Variations of cloudiness and precipitation are dominated by the diurnal cycle over the region. Cloud and precipitation systems start from higher elevations of the Sierra Madre Occidental in the morning, and move toward the coast as they reach the convective maximum later in the afternoon. The phase of the diurnal cycle is relatively stable, while the magnitude is modulated by changes on synoptic and intraseasonal time scales. Maxima of deep convection and precipitation appear 50-100 km west of the mountain crests.

Title: NAME Precipitation Assessment Project

Authors: Wei Shi, Wayne Higgins, CPC

Progress on a comprehensive precipitation assessment project carried out during NAME 2004 was reported. Intercomparisons of nine precipitation estimates, including a gauge-only gridded analysis, seven satellite estimates and one model forecast (GFS), were presented. The gauge analysis and the GFS compared favorably to each other. The satellite estimates tended to overestimate (underestimate) heavy (light) precipitation during NH summer when compared to the gauge analysis and the GFS. In order to improve satellite precipitation estimates, it is recommended that algorithm developers exploit NAME gauge based precipitation datasets that resolve the diurnal cycle in the core monsoon region of Northwest Mexico and the Southwest US. At the present time, it appears that gauge-based estimates offer the best prospects for forecast validation purposes.

Title: Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and Wind Observed by S-Pol Radar during NAME

Authors: D.A. Ahijevych and R. E. Carbone, NCAR

S-band polarimetric radar (S-Pol) measured reflectivity and radial wind over the coastline of Mexican Sinaloa from July 10 to August 20, 2004. Low-level S-Pol sweep files were interpolated to a rotated Cartesian grid aligned with the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO). The data were then binned according to hour of the day, eliminating multi-day oscillations and transients. What remained were signatures of the sea/land breeze circulation and continental rainfall. Twenty-four-frame movie loops of rainfall and wind illustrated the mean position and amplitude of the sea breeze front and the regular build-up of deep convection over higher terrain after 1300 local time (LT). The radial wind field indicated a sea breeze peak of 5 m/s at about 1500 LT with a shallower land breeze peak near 0400 LT (2.5 m/s). Hovmöller diagrams averaged in the along-coast dimension suggested a strong diurnal peak over land centered on 1800 local time with a tendency to move farther westward over water during the night in the presence of Gulf Surges and inverted troughs. On average, the westward propagation speed was about 4 m/s. In the future, a lower elevation angle will be used to characterize the land breeze and the analysis will also include SMN radars. With the additional coverage, we can begin to characterize the span and duration of organized rainfall episodes, as previously done by the authors over the continental U.S.

Title: Climate Variability Studies over the American Warm Pools

Author: Victor Magaña, UNAM

The R/V El Puma conducted a research cruise to the south of the mouth of the Gulf of California (GOC) from 3-17 August (ECAC5-NAME). Goals of the research were (1) to study the transition of the ocean and lower atmosphere from the warm pool of the eastern Pacific to the GOC, and (2) to investigate the heavy-rain area over the ocean to the west of Puerto Vallarta. Measurements included tethersonde, radiation, surface meteorology, CTD, aerosols, and rain chemistry. Tethersonde measurements were taken to 1 km. The observed depth of the ocean mixed layer was 20-30 m. It was also noted that many lower-tropospheric vortices, such as tropical cyclones, that amplify in the eastern Pacific have their origins in the Caribbean low-level jet, possibly from barotropic instability.

Title: Gulf Surges, the Diurnal Cycle, and Convective Outflows During NAME as Revealed by the NCAR ISS Array

Authors: R. Johnson, P. Rogers, P. Ciesielski, B. McNoldy, and R. Taft

Three NCAR Integrated Sounding Systems (ISSs) and one GPS sounding system (GLASS) were deployed along the GOC during the NAME EOP. The ISSs documented many aspects of the NAM along the GOC, including the characteristics of gulf surges, convective outflows, and the diurnal cycle. The strong 13 July gulf surge was associated with the passage of TS Blas to the south of the GOC and was preceded by convective downdraft outflows at the ISS sites. Peak winds occurred at 1.2 km AGL at Los Mochis and Bahía Kino, while somewhat lower (700 m) at Puerto Peñasco. Peak winds in the convective outflows were near 300 m. Strongest winds in the gulf surge occurred at Puerto Peñasco (~20 m s^-1). These strong low-level winds, which occurred over an 8-10 h period, represented the first stage (or pulse) in the overall surge, which lasted 2-3 days accompanied by significant lower-tropospheric cooling. This first stage exhibited rapid movement (20-25 m s^-1) from Los Mochis to Puerto Peñasco, and was accompanied by a 3-4 hPa surface pressure rise to a new level, suggesting the characteristics of an internal bore or mixed Kelvin-wave bore. However, more work is needed to fully characterize this phenomenon. The ISS data also revealed a sharply contrasting behavior of the diurnal cycle from north to south, with a strong low-level nocturnal jet at Puerto Peñasco peaking near 500 m AGL around sunrise, but much weaker at Bahía Kino and nonexistent at Los Mochis. Prominent afternoon sea breezes were observed at Bahía Kino and Los Mochis.

Title: Model simulation of the moist surges along the Gulf of California during NAME

Author: Hugo Berbery, U. Maryland

The presentation first discussed the advective processes over the GoC during the NAME 2004 Field Campaign. A brief review highlighted the critical role of moisture surges along the Gulf for the development of precipitation in the southwest United States. Simulations with NCEP’s workstation version of the Eta model were performed and a case study (Tropical Storm Blas) was analyzed and compared with observations. The model forecasts reproduced most aspects of the circulation fields, and the time evolution of precipitation was found to be well within the range obtained from different observational estimates of precipitation.

The second objective of the presentation was to present an assessment of the land surface-atmosphere interactions in the core monsoon estimated using the North American Regional Reanalysis products. As such, these results have to be interpreted in terms of interactions between the variables and not as the direction of possible feedbacks. The core monsoon reveals strong interactions between soil moisture and other surface and boundary layer parameters. Increases in soil moisture correspond to increases in latent heat and decreases in sensible heat, so that with more soil moisture the evaporation fraction is larger (and the Bowen ratio smaller). There is also an inverse correspondence between soil moisture and the lifting condensation level and, as expected, a direct correspondence with the low cloud cover. All these relationships are ultimately reflected in a direct relationship between soil moisture and observed precipitation.

Title: Relationships Between Gulf Surges and Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Basin

Author: Wayne Higgins and W. Shi, CPC

Relationships between GoC moisture surges and tropical cyclones (TCs) in the eastern Pacific basin were examined. Standard surface observations were used to identify gulf surge events at Yuma, Arizona for a multi-year (July-August 1979-2001) period. The surges were related to TCs using National Hurricane Center 6-hourly track data for the eastern Pacific basin. CPC observed daily precipitation analyses and the NCEP Regional Reanalysis were used to examine the relative differences in the precipitation, atmospheric circulation and moisture fields for several categories of surge events, including those that were directly related to TCs, indirectly related to TCs and not related to TCs. It was shown that the response to the surge in the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico is strongly discriminated by the presence or absence of TCs. Surges that are related to TCs tend to be associated with much stronger and deeper low-level southerly flow, deeper plumes of tropical moisture, and wetter conditions over the core monsoon region than surges that are unrelated to TCs. The response to the surge was also strongly influenced by the proximity of the TC to the GoC region. TCs that track towards the GoC region exert a stronger, more direct influence on Yuma surges than those that track away from the GoC.

Title: Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation based on CMORPH

Authors: V. Kousky, J. Janowiak and R. Joyce, CPC

A remarkable feature of the North American monsoon is the very large amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the vicinity of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) in northwest Mexico. Convective precipitation develops over the SMO during the early afternoon (1230-1300 LST), reaches maximum intensity just to the west of the SMO in early evening (1830-1900 LST), and weakens during the night (0030-0100 LST). The convective systems primarily move westward producing a nocturnal maximum along the coastal plain. At 28ºN there is also some indication of eastward propagation just to the east of the crest of the SMO. Another interesting feature of the North and Central American monsoon is the strong diurnal cycle in precipitation that occurs over nearby oceanic regions, sometimes extending hundreds of miles out to sea, especially west of Central America and to the east of the East Coast of the United States. Convection develops along the east coast of Central America early in the day, propagates to the west coast by evening and then continues westward over the ITCZ region of the Pacific, where a significant diurnal cycle in precipitation is evident several hundred kilometers from land. Over the southeastern United States precipitation is greatest during the late afternoon and early evening, while over the Atlantic the maximum occurs during the late night / early morning 300-400 kilometers east of the coast. For this region there is no apparent propagation of precipitating systems, but rather a distinct out-of-phase relationship in the strength of precipitation between land and the nearby Atlantic Ocean.

1.4 SWG-7 Executive Session (Chair: W. Higgins)

A NAME Executive Session, open to all SWG-7 attendees, was held on Thursday PM. Wayne Higgins chaired the meeting, which started with a show of hands by SWG members to establish a quorum. Higgins presented an 8-point agenda for the meeting, the last two points of which were covered by Dave Gutzler and Andrea Ray.

(1) SWG-7 Expected Outcome - SWG Assignments:

The expected outcome of the NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 meeting is a report that summarizes (i) the contents of the NAME 2004 data set, including dates of deliverables; (ii) NAME 2004 value added products; (iii) the strategy for post NAME 2004 modeling and data assimilation activities (including NAMAP2) to improve simulations and predictions of warm season precipitation with coupled climate models; and (iv) a list of "Synthesis Products" that are expected to emerge from NAME and the plans for achieving them.

The Workshop report is intended to satisfy a CPPA Milestone for FY 2005. NAME Milestones are listed in section 4. Higgins pointed out that "CLIVAR bought NAME based on Tier III" and asked how Tier III could be made more visible in NAME Milestones. He suggested we “quantify the relative influence of the oceanic and land surface boundary conditions on simulations of the 2004 monsoon”, for FY07. Gutzler suggested expanding the milestone to "determine the effects of NAME 2004 enhanced observations on operational analyses to determine the influences of the monsoon on the larger scales". Mo and Higgins indicated that these studies are in progress. Gutzler asked whether the FY09 bullet was within the core monsoon or the Tier III region. Higgins is thinking the current operational domain should be expanded from the US into Mexico. Higgins charged the SWG to help improve NAME milestones.

Following SWG-7, the NAME Science and Implementation Plan will be updated and disseminated via the NAME web page (www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name).

Action 1 Prepare and distribute NAME Data Analysis and SWG-7 Meeting Report (Higgins and

SWG).

Action 2 Update and disseminate NAME Science and Implementation Plan (Higgins and SWG).

Action 3 Develop a list of NAME “Synthesis Products” that are expected to emerge from NAME

and the plans for achieving them (SWG)

Action 4 Revise NAME milestones to make NAME Tier 3 activities more visible and explicit

Action 5 Evaluate progress on the development of the NAME post-field phase data set, including

dates of deliverables (SWG)

Action 6 Evaluate progress on NAME 2004 value added products (SWG)

Action 7 Update strategy in NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation “White Paper” (Mo, SWG)

Action 8 Establish protocols, expand participation and carry out NAMAP2 (Gutzler, Mo, Schemm,

Shi, Higgins).

(2)  BAMS article update:

Higgins described the history and current status of the BAMS Article entitled “The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)  2004 Field Campaign and Modeling Strategy”.  The proposal for the article was submitted to AMS on 1 November 2004, and accepted 1 December 2004.  The article was iterated twice between the SWG Chair and the co-authors.  The article was submitted to BAMS on 20 March 2005.  The BAMS article has 36 authors.    CPPA will sponsor color figures and page charges.  Higgins noted that he has only about half of the figures in .eps form (needed for final submission), and urged co-authors who have not given him .eps versions to do so.

Action 9 Publish an article entitled “The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) 2004

Field Campaign and Modeling Strategy” in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological

Society (Higgins, SWG, NAME PIs).

(3)  Journal of Climate Special Issue:

Higgins explained that JCL was chosen for a Special Issue on NAME because NAME is a climate program, and JCL was receptive to a broad array of NAME studies (e.g. basic physical process understanding, applications, climate-scale, seasonal modeling activities).  The submission deadline is 15 October, with publication planned for mid-2006.  Authors should submit manuscripts electronically, and state that the article is for the NAME special issue.  Andrew Weaver will handle the editing; he would like authors who have not already done so to send the names of 3 suggested reviewers to Higgins.  Page charges should be covered by the authors from their grants.

Action 10 Contribute to a Special Issue of the Journal of Climate on NAME (SWG, PIs).

(4) NAME Education Module update:

The NAME Education module includes 4 basic elements: (i) Teachers in the Field; (ii) NAM Monograph; (iii) Curriculum Unit and Lesson Plans and (iv) Teacher Workshop Opportuinities.  Higgins reported on the status of the last 3 of these.

A 500-copy print release of a "beta-version" of the NAME “Reports to the Nation” Monograph on the North American Monsoon will be made available at the NOAA booth during the March 31-April 3 National Science Teachers Association Annual Conference in Dallas Texas.   Currently the monograph is also available on the NAME website (www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name/education/index.html).  The beta version  allows for iteration with science educators who can provide critical input and feedback before we go to a final version.  A questionaire for teachers to evaluate the document will be distributed at the meeting.

Cover Art will be completed by John Kermond.  Mike Patterson says the monograph has illustrations that are quite technical.  He requested that people post photos from NAME on the NCAR/EOL web site so they could be incorporated into the monograph.  Higgins also recommended that the Monograph be translated into Spanish.

OGP will hold a focused workshop in Tucson, AZ  during the summer of 2005, inviting teachers that have responded via the questionnaire, in order to solicit more specific input on the use of the document and the lesson plans being developed by Steve Uyeda. Recommended modifications and  final print and web-posting will be carried out thereafter.

A Curriculum unit and lesson plans for 6th through 9th grade are being developed by Steve Ugeda, a 9th grade teacher from Tucson.  Mike Patterson said that 4 plans are done, mostly on weather scale.  Mike suggested that Uyeda pair with someone to flesh out the remaining units (Erik Pytlak has volunteered).  Mike hopes to have copies for the NSTA meeting.

NAME will organize a Special Session at the March 2006 NSTA conference focused on the North American Monsoon that will include presentations by NAME scientists and a walk through the NAME education materials

Action 11 Release "beta-version" of NAME “Reports to the Nation” monograph at the NOAA

booth during the March 31-April 3 National Science Teachers Association (NSTA)

Annual Conference in Dallas Texas. Distribute Questionaire for teachers to evaluate the

document (OGP)

Action 12 Hold focused workshop in Tucson, AZ during the summer of 2005 inviting teachers that

responded to the questionnaire (Action 1.10) in order to solicit more specific input on the

use of the NAM Monograph and the lesson plans being developed by Steve Uyeda (OGP)

Action 13                             Post photos from NAME 2004 on the NCAR/EOL web site so that they can be incorporated into

                        the NAME “Reports to the Nation” monograph.

Action 14                       Work with Steve Uyeda to complete remaining 6 of 10 lesson plans for NAME

                        curriculum unit.

Action 15 Hold NAME Session at March 2006 NSTA Annual Conference focused on the North

American Monsoon Presentations by NAME scientists. Walk through the education

materials

(5)  NAME SWG-8 - Modeling & Applications Workshop:

The Eighth NAME Science Working Group Meeting (SWG-8) will be coordinated with the Ninth VAMOS Panel Meeting (VPM9) in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil during April 2006.  The 8th AMS International Conference on SH Meteorology and Oceanography will also be held at that time.  The SWG-8 meeting will focus on NAME modeling and applications studies, including climate model assessments, climate data assimilation, climate products and applications, and transition of R&D to operations (NOAA Climate Test Bed).

Because VAMOS is developing an integrated strategy for NAME, MESA and VOCALS activities (e.g. joint modeling activities), and because NAME is the North American implementation of VAMOS, future NAME SWG meetings will be coordinated with the VAMOS Panel meetings.  NAME, MESA and VOCALS will coordinate so that there is no duplication of activities and participants can attend sessions on all 3 VAMOS Science Components.

There will be a Special Session on NAME 2004 and NAME Modeling Activities at the 30th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, State College, PA, 24-28 October 2005.

Action 16 Coordinate the Eighth NAME Science Working Group Meeting with the 9^th VAMOS

Panel Meeting in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil (March 2006).

Action 17 Coordinate future NAME SWG meetings with VAMOS Panel Meetings (Higgins, SWG).

Action 18 Organize a Special Session on NAME 2004 and NAME Modeling Activities at 30^th

Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, State College PA (24-28 October, 2005).

(6) SWG 2005 rotation:

Several SWG members are eligible to rotate off the SWG in September 2005.  These members are required to convey their intentions for continued participation on the SWG (optional 3 year term) to the SWG Chair by June 2005.  A call for nominations will be initiated by the SWG Chair in June 2005.  This will include a discussion of missing links on the SWG (e.g. applications, modelers, etc.).

Higgins invited a discussion on whether there should be a change to the ToR for the NAME SWG Chair?  Gutzler said that when the SWG was set up, the Pan-American and VAMOS panels wanted the Chair in place through the field campaign.  Berbery thought that having a Chair who was *not* a modeler as we entered the modeling phase of NAME could be an advantage.

Action 19 Carry out the NAME SWG 2005 membership rotation (Higgins, SWG)

Action 20 Modify ToR for rotation of the NAME SWG chair (SWG)

(7)  US-CLIVAR Reorganization, presented by Dave Gutzler:

Dave Gutzler discussed the reorganization of US CLIVAR and in particular how that might affect NAME.  Currently US CLIVAR uses “basin panels” to implement projects: Pacific, Atlantic, and Pan American.  The Pan American Panel has implemented several process studies, including EPIC, SALLJEX, NAME 2004 and VOCALS (2007).  There has always been close coordination between the CLIVAR VAMOS Panel and the US CLIVAR Pan American Panel.

When US CLIVAR reorganizes, the current panel structure will dissolve (in August 2005).  Other working groups and the SSC will be reorganized.  The primary motivation is to attract additional funding from several US agencies.  Three new implementation panels will be formed:  1) Model development/process studies; 2) Observations/phenomena/diagnostics; 3) Prediction/applications.  Existing panel activities need to be mapped onto the new panel structure.  This includes the activities of the NAME SWG.

Gutzler made 2 specific requests of NAME:

(1) Provide advice to the Pan American Panel on how the NAME SWG would like to map onto the new US CLIVAR Implementation Panels;

(2) Provide "NAME greatest hits" input to the Pan-American Panel to wrap up its contributions to US CLIVAR.

Regarding (1), there was a consensus at the meeting that the NAME SWG should link to the predictions/applications implementation panel. Regarding (2), the SWG felt that the recent BAMS article on NAME 04 and NAME Modeling Strategy would be a good contribution.  This meeting report also has a list of NAME 2004 value added products, a list of NAME "Synthesis Products", and the latest NAME Milestones, which could also be used.

(8)  NAME Products & Applications, presented by Andrea Ray:

Ray started by asking what products are coming out of NAME, and stating a need for a strategy for science that was relevant and accessible to applications communities.  She noted that many groups beyond the atmospheric and hydrological communities have an interest in NAME issues, e.g. water management, fire, health, economics, drought.  Ray sees the tasks ahead as: developing a list of products; organizing around targeted user communities; determining who will be the operational hosts; coordinating with regional climate centers in NW Mexico; collaboration with hydrological and human dimensions communities; communicating with potential users (e.g. through yearly  monsoon outlooks).

Ray presented a strawman (1) to spin up an applications focus in the SWG, (2) to conduct a survey/poll of anticipated products, and (3) to develop a network of applications and human dimensions partners, and (4) to link to the emerging NOAA Climate Test Bed.

1.5 NAME Applications (Chair: A. Ray)

Title: Linking NAME research to hydrological applications: Planned research from the NHWG

Author: D. Gochis

The talk was centered on 3 key elements; (1) past and current activities of NHWG members; (2) current research ‘threads’ in NAME hydroclimatological research; and (3) opportunities for advancing NAME hydrometeorological/hydroclimatological research. Discussion of past and current activities charted the evolution of the NHWG from its original white paper submission in January 2001 and described how NHWG members participated in the NAME 2004 EOP. It was emphasized that the NHWG is clearly addressing monsoon hydrology across a wide range of space and time scales deemed essential for holistic characterization of NAM hydrological processes. Five hydrologic science objectives were articulated and classified as being either a ‘basic’ research effort or a ‘coordinated-modeling’ research effort. Current findings exploring the interannual and intraseasonal relationships of streamflow to monsoon rainfall were shared to motivate potential collaborations between climate modeling teams and hydrological applications teams. Next, six specific potential collaborations, or applications of ongoing NAME research, were identified. A final proposal was made to organize hydrological research efforts around a few key representative, data-rich basins in NW Mexico and the SW U.S. which are of significant interest to both NAME scientists and managing agencies such as the SMN, CNA and stakeholders in Mexico and the NWS and stakeholders in Arizona. (The full presentation is available online at: www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name/dm/NAME_data_agenda.html and from speaker D. Gochis (gochis at rap.ucar.edu))

Title: Early Results on User Needs in the NAME region

Author: A.J. Ray

The talk discussed some aspects of the human and environment context of the monsoon region that influence how people might use monsoon information. It summarized work in the NAME region on water management in Mexico and the U.S.-Mexico Border (by Margaret Wilder and Bob Varady); fire management (by Tim Brown and Gregg Garfin); and drought. A study of Mexican water managers and users near the U.S.-Mexico border and in Sonora is being conducted to identify what kinds of climate products they use, what information is lacking, and what constraints / challenges exist. Urban water managers use a variety of meteorological and hydrological data, but climate data and forecasts are not well integrated into daily operational or longer-term planning practices. The study identified a number of constraints to the use of information as well as a number of opportunities. Ongoing work with fire managers in the U.S. has shown that monsoon information and forecasts are of high interest to fire management, because atmospheric conditions related to the monsoon have both fire producing and fire mitigating effects. Some specific monsoon issues of interest to fire managers include: (i) seasonal and medium-range forecasts of onset; predictions of strength and consistency of the monsoon; (ii) improving ability to predict wet versus dry thunderstorms; (iii) assessing the accuracy of GFS relative humidity forecasts; (iv) ability to recognize monsoon “false-start”; and (v) establishing monsoon definition/index relevant to fire management (current dew point definition is not useful for them). The monsoon is a factor in drought in the region, but the nature of drought is that it is not a unique issue but interacts with many other problems: fire, water management, health, land management, dryland agriculture and ranching. Because of this nature there are many definitions and perspectives on drought, but at the same time, this means that needs for drought information will often be related to the ongoing needs of each of these user communities.

Title: Linking NAME research to applications

Author: A.J. Ray

This talk continued discussion of the “Proposed Research Strategy for the NHWG,” focusing on the steps NAME can take to engage potential users of NAME science and to plan to meet out year milestones related to forecasts and products (NAME FY08 milestone to bring operational monsoon forecasts on line and CPPA FY08 milestone to provide new operational drought monitoring products). User communities for NAME research include other scientists as well as operational providers of information and end users who are planners and managers with interests related to water, fire, health, ecosystems, severe weather, and drought. In order to ensure that products are useable, relevant, and accessible to user communities, NAME must coordinate with the appropriate partners in the hydrologic, applications, and human dimensions communities, and encourage studies in the NAME region.

The NHWG recommends spinning up an applications focus in the NAME SWG, including the following tasks and activities: (i) actively collaborate with hydrology, applications and human dimensions communities (U.S. and MX), and coordinate with RISAs, IRI, IAI, and other organizations that may contribute; (ii) develop a list of “Value Added” products (see section 2) and “Synthesis” products (see section 3) from NAME and NAME-related activities, and identify the target user community(s); (iii) develop a network of applications and HD researchers and activities in the NAME region; (iv) cultivate support for social science and applications in the region, and by researchers in the region; (v) explore development of a Regional Climate Center for NW Mexico and a Monsoon Outlook; (vi) begin active communication with potential users long before operational products come on line; (vii) develop a Monsoon Outlook/Assessment in format(s) appropriate for dissemination to non-atmospheric science communities, English and Spanish versions; (viii) NHWG should play a role in the NAME CPT, especially with respect to drought to ensure the optimal flow of forecast products.

1.6 Plans for using NAME 2004 data in modeling (Chair: L. Farfán)

Title: NAMAP2

Author: D. Gutzler, U. New Mexico

Dave Gutzler reported on planning for a collaborative modeling effort ('NAMAP2') to compare and assess simulations of the 2004 warm season across the NAME domain. This effort is a follow-on to the successful NAMAP assessment, which included four regional and two global models, that was carried out prior to the NAME 2004 field campaign. Over the next several months, NAMAP2 collaborators will develop a protocol for comparable atmospheric model simulations of summer 2004, including a
common SST field and time-varying lateral boundary conditions for regional models. The purpose of NAMAP2 will be (a) to generate a set of common atmospheric model control runs that can be used as a basis for model sensitivity studies; (b) to assess the general quality and shortcomings of these control simulations (comparing the results with NAMAP runs); and (c) to apply the knowledge gained from this
assessment to operational forecast model development at NOAA NCEP. Participation is open. An immediate need is to develop a suitable SST data set for the NAME 2004 field campaign season, including a treatment of the Gulf of California that is superior to current operational products.

Title: Issues for global modeling / diurnal cycle activities

Authors: S. Schubert and M. Lee, NASA/GSFC

The diurnal cycle of warm season rainfall was analyzed in three global atmospheric general circulation models (NCEP, GFDL, and NASA). While the models have similar convective schemes based on buoyancy closure, they are characterized by different diurnal cycles in the North American Monsoon (NAM) region. A set of sensitivity tests with the NASA model showed that the source of the differences among the models appears to be from the implementation details of the convection scheme and the interaction with the boundary layer. Sensitivities to the horizontal resolution in the model were also tested. High-resolution runs (0.5 deg.) resolved the key local and mesoscale features (e.g. land-sea breeze). However, increased resolution has less of an impact on the simulated diurnal cycle of convection, suggesting the need for improvement in model physics parameterizations (especially in the convection scheme). Several AGCM development issues were identified in the study, in which the vertical dynamic and thermodynamic structures from the NAME 2004 field observation are key elements to be verified with the current models. .

Title: NAME CPT / Issues for prediction

Author: Jae Schemm, CPC

A NAME Climate Process and modeling Team (CPT) has been established to link NAME climate process research to model development and testing activities at NCEP for warm season climate prediction. This project has been funded by NOAA/OGP CPPA program; participating scientists are J. Schemm, W. Higgins, K. Mo , S. Moorthi and G. White of NCEP/ NWS/NOAA, D. Gutzler of University of New Mexico, S. Schubert of GSFC/NASA and B. Mapes of University of Miami. The project builds on two existing NAME-related modeling efforts. One major component of this project is the organization and implementation of a second phase of NAMAP, based on the 2004 season. NAMAP2 will re-examine the metrics proposed by NAMAP, extend the NAMAP analysis to transient variability, exploit the extensive observational database provided by NAME 2004 to analyze simulation targets of special interest, and expand participation. Vertical column analysis will bring local NAME observations and model outputs together in a context where key physical processes in the models can be evaluated and improved.

The second component builds on the current NAME-related modeling effort focused on the diurnal cycle of precipitation in several global models, including those implemented at NCEP, NASA and GFDL. The activities will focus on the ability of the operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) to simulate the diurnal and seasonal evolution of warm season precipitation during the NAME 2004 EOP, and on changes to the treatment of deep convection in the complicated terrain of the NAMS domain that are necessary to improve the simulations, and ultimately predictions of warm season precipitation. These activities will be strongly tied to NAMAP2 to ensure technology transfer from research to operations.

A feature common to both components of the project will be an examination of the sensitivity of the model simulations to large-scale oceanic and continental boundary conditions. These experiments will be designed to address seasonal predictability issues associated with the North American monsoon. The overarching climate predictability goals associated with NAME are best addressed with global models, but a joint research effort involving both global and regional models (especially for NAMAP2) will facilitate improvements to all of the models. These activities will be closely coordinated among the NCEP CPC, EMC Physics Group, NASA/GMAO, GFDL and the university research community involved in NAMAP2.

Title: NOAA Climate Test Bed

Author: Wayne Higgins

The Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility is proposed to accomplish the following goals: 1) assess scientific advances in coupled climate forecast models developed at various institutions towards the next generation NOAA operational climate forecast system; 2) accelerate synthesis and implementation of advances for NOAA operational climate forecasts; 3) evaluate new and enhanced climate forecast products for a wide range of applications (e.g. water resource management, drought prediction and information services, agriculture applications, wild fire risk outlooks); and 4) provide access to operational models, forecast tools and data sets to enable collaborative research that accelerates improvements of the operational models, tools and methods. The computer/human resource infrastructure, transition projects (base funded and Announcements of Opportunity), and NCEP contributions to CTB infrastructure were discussed.

Title: Warm-season convection over the U.S. continent: Simulation, modeling and parameterization

Author: Mitch Moncrieff

The study objectives were: 1) to simulate warm-season precipitating convection over the continental United States; 2) implement a three-pronged strategy: a) resolve convection; b) under- resolve it; c) parameterize convection; and 3) validation of the precipitation distribution from NEXRAD analysis. Models applied are the NCEP global analysis for background fields and lateral boundary conditions and MM5 run at cloud-system resolving resolutions. It was concluded that a representation of mesoscale dynamics presently missing from convective parameterizations and the parameterization of mesoscale circulations in climate models is necessary. In addition, the potential for NAME-related simulations was discussed and this includes large-scale forcing specified from objectively analyzed sounding data.

Title: Brief Discussion: Summary and recommendations for NAME modeling

Chair: Kingtse Mo

Kingtse Mo led a short plenary discussion that focused on how results from NAME 04 are being used to address modeling issues aimed at improved seasonal-to-interannual precipitation prediction. The NAME modeling community is in the process of updating the modeling strategy outlined in the NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation “White Paper” as follows:

(i) Develop an “End – to – End” forecast system for NAME [SST prediction on S-I timescalesà surface temperature and precipitation forecasts over North America on S-I timescales à hydrologic modeling, forecasts and applications];

(ii) Exploit the NAME 2004 enhanced observations to improve global and regional models and model validation data sets (includes global and regional analyses);

(iii) Focus on hydrologic modeling with strong links to hydrometeorological applications, especially drought/floods (NAME Hydrometeorological Working Group); and

(iv) Develop strong links to the NOAA Climate Testbed (NAME CPT; Climate Forecast System Assessments; multi-model ensembles; experimental prediction) to accelerate the transition of NAME research into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products and applications.

Updates to the NAME modeling strategy are incorporated into the latest version of the NAME “White Paper”, which is posted on the NAME webpage (www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name).

Some specific ACTIONS in the near term:

(i) Issue the call and develop protocols for participation in NAMAP2 (Gutzler)

(ii) Develop an improved SST dataset for the GoC during the NAME 2004 period (Xie, Mo).

(iii) Develop a model verification data directory to link both measured and derived surface data for model verification (Johnson, Mo)

(iv) Develop several “Synthesis Products” based on NHWG efforts in hydrologic prediction (Gochis, NHWG).

(v) Add a more comprehensive section on hydrologic applications to the “White Paper” and S&IP (Ray, Gochis)

2. NAME Value Added Products

In addition to the enhanced observations gathered during NAME 04, the NAME community is compiling a set of NAME 2004 value added products that include derived quantities. Nominally NAME 2004 value added products cover the period of the NAME 2004 field campaign, but in many cases the period of record is longer. All of the products will be in a useful format for quantitative applications (as opposed to .gif files, pointers, or raw measurements). Many of the products (e.g. satellite, precipitation) are subsets for the NAME domain at high spatial and temporal resolution. The value added products will support NAME diagnostic, modeling and prediction activities aimed at improved understanding, more realistic simulations and more skilful predictions of the NAM.

The value added products are organized into 4 basic categories: boundary and surface conditions; atmospheric data assimilation and forecast products; precipitation products; and satellite products. Key individuals or groups responsible for these products are also indicated in parentheses:

2.1 Boundary and surface conditions

SST over the Gulf of California and vicinity;
Soil moisture;
Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes;
Mixed layer depth and its diurnal cycle;
Diurnal evolution of theta, q and winds;
LCL of the surface (or lowest model level) air (to compare with observed cloud base height);
Surface drag or friction velocity;
Diurnal cycle of components of the surface energy budget.

2.2 Atmospheric data assimilation and forecast products

CDAS 2 with/without the NAME 2004 data;
EDAS using Eta 12 km model with/without the NAME 2004 data;
R-CDAS with/without the NAME 2004 data.

Provider: CPC

Contact: Kingtse.Mo at noaa.gov

2.3 Precipitation products

Gauge analyses (0.25° horizontal resolution and finer)

CPC merged US and Mexico daily precipitation analysis (0.25°, daily and hourly)

o NAME Event Raingauge Network (NERN) (as fine as 5 minutes)

o SMN Automated Weather Stations (10 min)

o AGROSON automated agricultural weather stations

· Satellite analyses (0.25° horizontal resolution and finer)

o CPC Morphing Technique (“CMORPH”) (daily, hourly)

o Naval Research Laboratory/GEO (daily)

o US-Irvine/PERSIANN (daily)

o NASA/GSFC/3B42RT (daily, 3 hourly)

o NESDIS/Merged AMSU-B Estimates (daily hourly)

o NESDIS/”Hydro-Estimator” Estimates (daily)

o NESDIS/GOES Multi-spectral Rainfall Algorithm (GMSRA) (daily)

Providers: CPC, Gochis et al., SMN, AGROSON and participants in the NAME Precipitation Assessment Project

Contact: Wei.Shi at noaa.gov

2.4 Satellite data products (CPC)

o AMSR, GOES, MODIS, TRMM

o Hourly observations from GOES over clear sky; up to 4x daily from microwave instruments of AMSR and TRMM over clear sky and most cloudy regions

· Surface Wind

o QuikSCAT over oceans; 2x daily

· Soil Moisture

o AMSR (new product); 2x daily

· Temperature / moisture profiles

o AIRS (new product); up to 2x daily

· Clouds

o AIRS, AMSR, GOES, MODIS, TRMM

o Cloudiness / cloud top temperature from GOES

o Total column cloud liquid water from AIRS, AMSR and MODIS

o 3-D structure of cloud liquid water from TRMM

Precipitation / Radar Reflectivity

o AMSR, TRMM

o Surface precipitation from AMSR, TRMM/TMI and TRMM/Precipitation Radar (PR)

o 3-D structure of precipitation and Radar Reflectivity from TRMM/Precipitation Radar (PR)

o TRMM Radar Reflectivity useful for comparison with ground radar observations

Aerosol

o MODIS; Up to 4x daily

Provider: CPC is gathering data from respective groups above

Contact: Pingping.Xie at noaa.gov

Comprehensive documentation of NAME 2004 value added datasets, including contact information, periods of availability, resolution, etc) will be available from NCAR/EOL on the NAME Data Management page (http://www.eol.ucar.edu/projects/name/dm/name_dm_index.html).

3. NAME Program Synthesis Products

An important product of the NAME Program are Synthesis Products that show the progress the program is making to improved understanding and more skillful prediction of the North American monsoon and its variability. It is envisioned that all funded investigators have a responsibility to contribute to these products and that they will take leadership in developing and producing these products. NAME Synthesis Products will be developed to address specific NAME scientific questions that, when answered, will help achieve the NAME guiding goal, namely to determine the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation over North America, with emphasis on time scales ranging from seasonal-to-interannual.

For NAME to realize its scientific goals, the SWG has established several working groups (e.g. NAME Climate Process and Modeling Team (CPT); NAME Hydrometeorological Working Group (NHWG)) and subprojects (e.g. the North American Monsoon Assessment Project (NAMAP); the NAME Precipitation Assessment Project (PAP)) within the program. These groups and subprojects, together with the NAME Field Observations PIs and the NAME Modeling and Diagnostic Studies PIs are responsible for the development of the NAME Synthesis Products, which are based on NAME research results and are critical products that demonstrate NAME research progress and usefulness to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA). Progress of the working groups and PI’s towards these products will be reported to the NAME SWG, Program Mangers and NCAR/EOL/NAME Project Office.

The current products, groups or subprojects responsible for their compilation, and time horizon for their completion are as follows:

NAME Science Question: Can we understand and simulate the North American monsoon system and its variability?

2004 - Benchmark and assess current global and regional model simulations of the North American monsoon (NAMAP);

2004 - Implement the NAME 2004 Field Experiment for improved understanding and prediction of the monsoon (SWG);

2006 - Assess global and regional model simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon (NAMAP2);

2006 - Develop an improved understanding of the water budget and its variability within the NAM domain based on NAME 2004 enhanced observations and modeling (SWG);

2007 - Quantify surface fluxes and land-atmosphere climate feedbacks across the North American monsoon domain (SWG)

NAME Science Question: What are the linkages between the North American monsoon system and the larger-scale climate system across North America and nearby oceans on seasonal-to-interannual

time scales?

2006 - Evaluate the impact of additional data from the NAME 2004 field campaign on operational global and regional analyses and forecasts (SWG).

NAME Science Question: What are the key factors governing the predictability of the monsoon, and in particular, the ability to predict warm season precipitation?

2006 – Assess the impact of spatial resolution on the ability of coupled climate models to simulate the monsoon (CPT);

2007 – Reproduce the full diurnal cycle of observed precipitation over the core monsoon region in global coupled models by matching well-constrained monthly mean observations to within 20% (NAMAP2, CPT).

2008 – Quantify the relative influence of oceanic and land surface boundary conditions on simulations of the NAME 2004 monsoon (CPT).

NAME Science Question: Are climate models more capable of predicting North American monsoon variability months to seasons in advance?

2007 - Evaluate the impact of changes in model parameterization schemes (CPT);

2008 - Measure improvements in model simulations of monsoon onset and variability (CPT);

2009 - Implement recommended changes to operational climate forecast systems to improve the skill of warm season precipitation forecasts (CPT).

NAME Science Question: How can the scientific contributions of NAME, in areas such as coupled land-atmosphere modeling and seasonal forecasting, best be transferred to the operational hydrology and water resources community?

2006 - Improved rain gauge calibrated, real-time, quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) from radar and satellite ready for use in data assimilation and hydrological models (PAP, NHWG);

2007 - Improved land data assimilation system (LDAS) for use in initialization of weather, climate and hydrological forecast models and for use in real-time drought monitoring and prediction (PAP, NHWG);

2008 - Improved suite of seasonal hydrologic forecast systems for water resource applications (NHWG);

2009 - Downscaled seasonal ensemble forecasts for streamflow / reservoir inflow and evaporative demand (NHWG).

NAME Science Question: How is improved understanding in the North American Monsoon conveyed to the broader community?

2007 – Developed NAME educational materials for K-12, including a North American Monsoon monograph, curriculum unit and lesson plans.

4. Annual Milestones

The following annual milestones are used to track progress toward NAME objectives, including the NAME Synthesis Products discussed in section 3.

ü FY04 - Implement NAME 2004 Field Experiment

ü FY05 - Evaluate impact of data from NAME 2004 on operational analyses

FY06 - Assess global and regional model simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon (NAMAP2)

FY07 - Evaluate impact of changes in model parameterization schemes (NAME CPT)

FY07 – Quantify the relative influence of oceanic and land surface boundary conditions on simulations of the NAME 2004 monsoon

FY08 - Measure improvements in model simulations of monsoon onset and variability (includes NOAA operationl GFS/CFS)

FY09 - Implement recommended changes to operational climate forecast systems to improve skill of warm season precipitation forecasts

The NAME milestones have been updated starting in FY07 to emphasize NAME Tier 3 activities.

Appendix A. Words of Welcome for NAME, MESA and VOCALS (Michel Rosengaus, Director SMN)

PALABRAS DE BIENVENIDA PARA REUNION NAME, MESA,VOCALS

(Por Michel Rosengaus)

Every Tuesday, at 10:00 A.M. sharp, I walk into one of the meeting rooms at the main building of the National Water Commission of Mexico (the CNA). There, I meet with several of the Under Directors of the CNA, frequently also the General Director. Also present are key people from the Federal Electricity Commission, the National Center for Disaster Prevention, the Engineering Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, representatives of the Department of Agriculture and Food Production, the Department of Health and the Department of Communications and Transport. Many technical assistants to these people are also there. This regular meeting is called the Technical Committee of Hydraulic Works Operations (CTOOH in Spanish language initials). Its purpose is to decide on the operation of the hydraulic infrastructure of Mexico, and mainly the dams, for the next days, weeks and months. Decisions taken are not purely “hydraulic engineering” decisions. They have significant population safety, health, economic, food production and energy production consequences. The social and political stability of the regions in question are always present in the minds of all at the meeting. Even international consequences are taken into account, especially on the Bravo (or Grande) River (depending on which side of the border you are), the Colorado River and the Tijuana River.

The National Meteorological Service of Mexico (the SMN), a part of the CNA, is always present in order to inform the CTOOH mainly on the dynamic of rainfall in the past week as well as the forecast of rain in the next week. Usually on the first meeting of each month, the SMN also presents monthly and seasonal climatological forecasts out to 3 months into the future. Thus in early Spring (e.g. March) our forecasts do not even extend to the initial part of the rainy season (June), so we are not providing decision makers with the information they require to take solid, objective, sound decisions on the operation of dams over all of Mexico. Should agricultural users of water be allowed their full water rights under the present hydrologic situation? If we do, is the leftover water stored enough to provide human consumption to cities and towns for the rest of the dry season? If we keep storage levels high, will we have to make use of the overflow spillways during a possibly higher than normal rainy season? Is the level of the risk to the population downstream reasonable? If we leave water on the dams, how much will we loose to evaporation during the next dry season? Is that evaporation going to be for a normal season or for a warmer than normal season? What about solar radiation anomalies? Are rains going to start early, normal or late this year? Can we take the risk of overstoring temporarily in order to lower the levels using the electricity production infrastructure instead of the spillways which does not produce any economic benefit? Answers to all of these questions are intimately linked to long-term forecasting . They have consequences far more important than going out to work with or without an umbrella.

Appendix B. Agenda

NAME 2004 Data Analysis Meeting and

Seventh Meeting of the NAME Science Working Group (SWG-7)

Mexico City, MX, 9-11 March, 2005

Wednesday 9 March 2005

2:00 pm Welcome / Logistics, etc. – Miguel Cortez

2:10 pm Reflections on NAME 2004 – Michel Rosengaus

2:20 pm Goals / Objectives / Special Recognition – Wayne Higgins

Session 1: NAME 2004 Overview

Chair: Art Douglas

2:40 pm NAME 2004 Overview - Wayne Higgins

3:00 pm NAME 2004 Forecast Operations Center – Erik Pytlak

3:20 pm NAME 2004 Project Office Activities – Gus Emmanuel

3:40 pm NAME 2004 Field Data Catalog - José Meitín

4:00 pm NAME 2004 Data Management – José Meitín, Scott Loehrer & Linda Cully

4:20 pm Break

Session 2: NAME 2004 Field Observations

Chair: David Gochis

4:40 pm Enhanced sounding network: Performance and results – Paul Ciesielski

5:00 pm NWS & SMN soundings / SMN Participation – Art Douglas and Miguel Cortez

5:20 pm PIBAL network / special raingauge measurements – Mike Douglas

5:40 pm Research aircraft operations and results – Mike Douglas

6:00 pm Overview of wind/flux/radiation observations at the ETL/AL flux site - Leslie Hartten

6:20 pm Adjourn

Thursday 10 March 2005

Session 2: NAME 2004 Field Observations, cont.

Chair: David Gochis

8:30 am NAME Event Raingauge Network: Results and legacy issues – David Gochis

8:50 am NAME Simple Raingauge Network – René Lobato

9:10 am Profiler-based precipitation observations at the ETL/AL flux site - Christopher Williams

9:30 am Vegetation Feedback and Soil Moisture projects – Chris Watts, M. Douglas et al.

9:50 am SMEX04 – Tom Jackson and Dennis Lettenmaier

10:10 am Break

10:30 am Oceanographic measurements (R/V Altair) – Chris Fairall

10:50 am Oceanographic measurements (CICESE) - Mike Douglas, Miguel Lavin & Teresa Cavazos

11:10 am S-pol radar data collection – Steve Rutledge

11:30 am SMN radar network – Tim Lang

11:50 am Overview of the observations made at the ETL/AL flux site – Christopher Williams, Clark King

12:10 pm Box Lunch

Session 3: NAME Diagnostics Studies

Chair: Richard Johnson

1:10 pm Assessment of NCEP data assimilation systems during NAME04 –Kingtse Mo

1:30 pm Diurnal cycle of cloudiness and precipitation using satellite observations – Pingping Xie

1:50 pm NAME Precipitation Assessment Project – Wei Shi

2:10 pm Some preliminary findings from a dynamically-based precipitation climatology in the Mazatlan – Culiacan region – Rit Carbone

2:30 pm Climate Variability Studies over the American Warm Pools - Victor Magaña

2:50 pm Break

3:10 pm Gulf surges, the diurnal cycle, and convective outflows during NAME as
revealed by the NCAR ISS array – Richard Johnson

3:30 pm Moisture Surges during NAME: Eta model evaluation and diagnosis – Hugo Berbery

3:50 pm Relationships between gulf surges and tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific basin – Wayne Higgins

4:10 pm The diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Americas based on CMORPH – Vern Kousky

Session 4: Executive Session

Chair: Wayne Higgins

4:30 pm Executive Session (SWG)

- NAME Data Analysis Panel Report assignments;

- BAMS Article

- SWG 2004 Rotation

- New Business (Extending the NAME timeline; Next meeting)

6:30 pm Adjourn

Friday 11 March 2005

Session 5: NAME Applications

Chair: Andrea Ray

8:30 am The NAME Hydrometeorology Working Group / Engaging the International Community – David Gochis.

8:50 am Hydroclimate in Mexico – Andrea Ray

9:10 am Water Management in Mexico – Margaret Wilder

Session 6: Plans for using NAME 04 Data in Modeling

Chair: Luis Farfan

9:30 am Summary of the VPM8 Session on NAME Modeling & NAMAP2 – Dave Gutzler

9:50 am Issues for global modeling / diurnal cycle activities – Siegfried Schubert

10:10 am Break

10:30 am NAME CPT / Issues for prediction – Jae Schemm

10:50 am NOAA Climate Test Bed – Wayne Higgins

11:10 am Warm-season convection over the U.S. continent: Simulation, modeling and parameterization – Mitch Moncrieff

11:30 am NAM biases in an NCEP reanalysis-like ('reforecast') model – Brian Mapes

11:50 am Effects of Assimilating Surface Measurements on the North American Monsoon: A Case Study Using a Regional Climate Model During the NAME 2004 – Kiran Alapaty

12:10 am Brief Discussion: Summary and recommendations for NAME modeling – Kingtse Mo

12:30 pm Adjourn

Appendix C. Contact Information