North American Monsoon Experiment
Forecast Operations Center Plan
I: Shift Duties and Products
This should be used as a general guide for how workload will be distributed in the FOC. We cannot anticipate all of the possible complications and emphases on a day-to-day basis. Rearrangement of the duties outlined below, based on forecaster consensus on any given day, is allowable and encouraged.
Assistant Forecaster
¤ Will generally focus on yesterday's developments across Tier-I
¤ Prepare .gif map of MCS tracks and other features of note from 12Z yesterday through 12Z this morning. Will use Joint METOC Viewer (JMV) software to produce these .gif images.
¤ Prepare .gif map of 24hr precipitation from 12Z yesterday through 12Z this morning.
o In the U.S., use either RTPAZ and STPNM from AWIPS; or CBRFC basin precip estimates: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/precip/precip.cgi
o In the U.S.: NOWRAD data may be used to fill in precipitation gaps
o In Mexico, use: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/lluvias/lluvias.html and http://smn.cna.gob.mx/boletin/agricultura/agricultura.html
¤ Determine average areal precip for the 9 Tier-I forecast zones from 12Z yesterday through 12Z this morning. Post to JOSS website. (Note that this map does not have to be exact. It is meant to be a broad overview of precipitation across Tier-I.)
¤ Compose the "Previous-Day Analysis" segment of the FOC Briefing Package, and send to JOSS website when complete. The discussion should include:
o General description of activity across Tier-I yesterday
o Locations of heaviest rainfall and/or most significant severe weather
o Which model solution worked particularly well or badly
o Add any additional web images of note (in addition to the two required JMV images)
¤ Shortly after 18Z, enter precip category forecasts into reformatted Excel spreadsheet. The "most common/mode" forecast will be calculated by the spreadsheet. This "consensus" forecast will then be entered into the "forecaster zero" slot.
¤ At the 21Z briefing, present yesterday's developments to the group. This should be a SHORT presentation " no more than 5 minutes.
Day 1 Forecaster
¤ Will generally focus on current trends and any changes to the current forecast through 12Z tomorrow
¤ Prepare.gif map of main synoptic scale "feature" tracks across all of Tier-I and Tier-II, valid 00Z this evening.
¤ Prepare.gif map of expected QPF from briefing time through 12Z tomorrow morning. This map will also include expected areas of strong/severe thunderstorms and any other significant weather of note (i.e. totally suppressed areas, dust storm areas, etc)
¤ Compose the "Current/Day1 Forecast Update" segment of the FOC Briefing Package, and send to JOSS website when complete. The discussion should include:
o General description of expected activity across Tier-I this afternoon and tonight. Include expected locations of heaviest rainfall and/or most significant severe weather
o A list of synoptic "features" and their expected evolution through 12Z tomorrow morning
o Which model solution(s) were used for your forecast
o Add any additional web images of note (in addition to the two required JMV images)
¤ At the 21Z briefing, present current weather trends for this afternoon through 12Z to the group. This should be a SHORT presentation " no more than 5 minutes.
Day 2 Forecaster
á Will generally focus on the forecast guidance from 12Z tomorrow through 12Z Day 3
á The Day 2 Forecaster will generally be the key briefing forecaster
á Prepare .gif map of main synoptic scale "feature" tracks across all of Tier-I and Tier-II, valid 00Z the following day (a 30hr forecast).
á Prepare .gif map of expected QPF from 12Z tomorrow through 12Z Day 3. This map will also include expected areas of strong/severe thunderstorms and any other significant weather of note (i.e. totally suppressed areas, dust storm areas, etc)
á Compose the "Day 2 Forecast" segment of the FOC Briefing Package, and send to JOSS website when complete. The discussion should include:
o General description of expected activity across Tier-I this afternoon and tonight. Include expected locations of heaviest rainfall and/or most significant severe weather. Also, it is also recommended to comment on forecasts provided by other NAME forecasters, including the consensus forecast prepared by the Assistant Forecaster
o A list of synoptic "features" and their expected evolution/track from 12Z tomorrow through 12Z Day 3.
o Which model solution(s) were used for your forecast
o Add any additional web images of note (in addition to the two required JMV images)
At the 21Z briefing, this will be the key briefing segment. However, it should be limited to 5-10 minutes.
Responsibilities of all three forecasters
á The Extended Forecast (Days 3-5 and Day 6-10) must be completed by one of the three forecasters. Given workload concerns, it will be up to the FOC team to decide who completes it.
á The 3-5 Day Outlook will primarily focus on Day 3, and it may be necessary to split Day 3 off from Days 4-5 in particularly critical situations. The farther one goes in time, it is suggested that the forecast be based on HPC and CPC guidance.
á The Day 3-5 and Day 6-10 discussions should include:
o General description of expected activity across Tier-I from 12Z Day 3 through around Day 10.
o Expected longer-term, synoptic scale trends (i.e. potential for significant upswings and downswings in the extended forecast)
o Which model solution(s) were used for your forecast
á Add any additional web images of note. This will be the only product that will not require an accompanying JMV graphic. However, you are allowed to produce one as you wish.
III: FOC Shift Timeline (all times MST):
7:00 Arrive at FOC. Check in with NWS Tucson lead forecaster.
8:30 Check NAME e-mail account for coordination messages from SMN.
9:00-9:15 Call SPC as-needed to coordinate their Day 1 and 2 forecasts in the southwest U.S.
9:15 Coordination call with NHC, HPC and CPC. See Section IV.
10:00 Coordination with SMN
11:00 Previous Day Analysis due to JOSS website
11:00 Practice forecasts due by remote NAME FOC participants to JOSS website
11:30 (Mon-Fri) NWS Tucson map briefing (attendance optional)
12:00 Assistant Forecaster completes consensus forecast from practice forecast page
13:00 Current, Day 2, and Day 3-10 forecasts due to JOSS website
14:00-14:30 Daily forecast briefing at U of A ATMO building
15:30 Day ends
Forecasters will take a 30 minute lunch break at any time during the shift. The exact lunch time is up to the forecast team based on workload considerations.
IV. Daily NCEP Coordination Call
¤ Call will take place at 915 am MST (1615 UTC) June 21-August 31.
¤ Briefing forecaster will set up the conference call:
1. Dial into the NWS Tucson Meet-me Conference Call Number: (888) XXX-XXXX. Leader Passcode:XXXXXX. The automated voice will walk you through the process. (Note: These numbers are administratively restricted. The participants will dial into the call using passcode XXXXXX)
2. HPC, NHC and CPC will dial into the conference call. As each party joins the call, you will hear a couple of "beeps"
¤ Calls will follow this general agenda:
1. FOC will offer a quick overview of initial expectations for Day 2 and 3 (12Z the following day through 12Z two days later), focusing on expected MCS development and additional weather of interest they may cause (severe tstms, heavy rainfall, moisture surge initiation) anywhere in Tier-I
2. NHC hurricane specialist will then give overview of any tropical cyclone threats, including potential for development, in Tier I and adjacent areas of Tier II within the next 72 hours. The Pacific high seas TAFB forecaster may also offer comments NHC as needed.
3. HPC Day 2 forecaster will give an overview of QPF prospects over Tier I in Day 2, and also offer the medium range desks's initial thoughts for Days 3-5 with main emphasis on Day 3
4. CPC Monitoring Director (Mon-Fri only) will offer their expectations on overall monsoon flow pattern over Tier I in the day 6-10 period.
¤ Calls will be kept to 15 minutes.
¤ If a national center either has nothing to report in their sphere of expertise (i.e. no tropical cyclones expected), or the center is in agreement with the FOC, simply stating either fact and going to the next person on the agenda is acceptable. Thus on some days, the coordination could easily be only 5 minutes.
¤ We also obviously understand if a national center is overwhelmed with operational duties and cannot dial in on a particular day (i.e. Hurricane Isabel heading for NC).
Note that coordination with SPC will be on an as-needed basis.
C. SMN Coordination Procedures
¤ Most coordination will be done via e-mail. A separate e-mail account will be used (twc.name@noaa.gov) for this purpose.
o Access the e-mail server via the Internet (https://nsmail.wrh.noaa.gov)
o Login name is "twc.name". Password is "XXXXXXXX".
¤ This e-mail account will be checked by 8:30 am MST each day. However, it should be checked at other times if the FOC is expecting follow-up information to be exchanged.
¤ If a phone call is needed between the FOCs in Mexico City and Tucson, please coordinate this with Bob Maddox or Erik Pytlak. They will have an international calling card for this purpose, and we will ensure there is either an English speaker at SMN in Mexico City, or a Spanish speaker available at the FOC to help translate.
V. Forecast Preparation
Preparing the graphics and text discussions is an easy process. On the first day that each forecaster is at the FOC, either Bob Maddox or Erik Pytlak will give a one-on-one demonstration on how to prepare the discussions and maps, and then upload them to the NAME Field Catalog (http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/name/). However, the following information is provided for those who are interested in how the step-by-step process will generally work:
A Creating JMV graphics
Graphics will be prepared using Joint METOC Viewer (JMV) software produced by the military and available as PC freeware. It is an easy-to-use meteorological drawing program. To bring up the software:
1. Click on "JMV" icon on a PC desktop. The JMV program will then boot up.
2. The main menu bar, click on "display," then click on "map."
3. If working on the "features" map, select "Tier II" from the map menu. If working on the QPF/SigWx map, select "Tier I" from the map menu. Once the appropriate background map is selected, click OK.
4. A product menu will then appear. A series of previously-produced maps will appear. However, you will not use these. Instead, click "none." The JMV drawing table will then appear.
At this point, you will be able to edit a previously-produced map, or create a map from scratch. There are a series of buttons on the right side of the table that you select as "tools" to draw features like fronts, tropical cyclones, low and high pressure centers, and text. A short how-to guide is provided in the FOC version of this guide. Drawing methods will also be demonstrated by Bob or Erik when you arrive.
Once you are finished with the graphic you wish to upload to the NAME website:
1. Go to the top menu bar, click "file" and select "save drawing." Name the drawing as you wish, so long as it is easily identifiable from the name you choose.
2. Go back to the top menu bar, click on "export," and select "graphic," and then select "As GIF image..."
3. When the Windows file window appears, go to the H: drive and save the image using the following naming convention:
mmmddFeaDAYx.gif or mmmddQPFDAYx.gif
where mmm is the 3 letter month, dd is the date the forecast was created, and x is the forecast day (0=analysis, 1=Day 1, 2=Day 2, 3=Day 3-10).
For example, "Jul21FeaDAY2.GIF" is the Day 2 Features map written on July 21 (valid from 12Z July 22-12Z July 23).
4. As you save the graphic, an additional window will appear asking to size the document. Select "use previous setting," and the .GIF file that is created will be saved in the proper dimensions (640x640 for the feature maps; 350x640 for the QPF maps).
B. Completing and uploading text forecast to NAME website
The text portions of each analysis/forecast segment will be composed in MSWord and stored on the
H: drive of the FOC PCs. Sub folders have been created for each day of the project (i.e. Jul21, Aug10, etc.).
The text analyses/forecasts will be saved using the file naming convention:
mmmddDAYx.doc
where MMM is the 3 letter month, dd is the date the forecast was created, and x is the forecast day (0=analysis, 1=Day 1, 2=Day 2, 3=Day 3-10). For example, "Jul21DAY2.doc" is the Day 2 forecast discussion written on July 21 (valid from 12Z July 22-12Z July 23). This would be saved in the Jul21 folder on the desktop.
If you wish to add web links, .jpg., and/or .gif images, include the syntax (image 1), (image 2), etc. directly in the text. When it is uploaded to the JOSS website, a direct link will be enabled to the image you placed in the Image 1 slot on the web page.
Once you are ready to post your text to the JOSS website:
1. Keep the .doc file you wish to upload open on your desktop
2. Go to NAME field catalog ( http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/name/ )
3. Click on the Tools and Links Tab
4. Click on the Report Generation Forms Tool. The discussion form GUI will appear
5. Enter your name and password
6. Select "no" at the prompt that asks preserve the format of the text being entered below
7. Go to the open MS word document on your desktop
8. Go to "edit" in the MSWord tool bar, and select "Select all." The text will turn white while the background turns black.
9. Go to the MSWord "edit" tool bar and select "copy"
10. Go back to the JOSS website, and in the text window, right click and select "paste"
11. The text will appear in the box.
12. Add any images you wish to include:
1. At the bottom of each report generation form is an option to upload
images. Click on the "browse"
2. Find the image you wish to upload (most likely from your desktop where your JMV-generated .gif images are stored) and select it. The file path and filename will show up in the window.
3. Continue until you have set up the upload for each image you wish to include.
13. Click on "preview form" to make one last check
14. If you're happy, click on "save." Forecast and graphics will be uploaded to JOSS website.
VI. Forecast Products and Examples
As indicated in Section I, there will be four separate forecast elements produced by the FOC. The four elements will be loaded separately onto the NAME Field Catalog website and will be used as the primary briefing material to the NAME Science Director, Field Operations Director, and numerous Principal Investigators (PIs), researchers, and other interested parties who will view the on-line material in both the U.S. and Mexico. The four segments will be:
Previous Day Analysis Prepared by Assistant Forecast
Current/Day 1 Forecast Update Prepared by Assistant Forecaster or Day 1 Forecaster
Day 2 Forecast Guidance Prepared by Briefing Forecaster
Day 3-5 and Day 6-10 Forecast Prepared by any of the three forecasters
1. Yesterday Previous-Day Example:
NAME Previous-Day Analysis
Date(UTC):
2004/07/30 19:28
Forecaster: Holle
Submitted at(UTC): 2004/07/30 19:28
Discussion:
Analysis from 12Z yesterday through 12Z this morning. See image 1 for feature map, and image 2 for areal precipitation estimate.
The primary action was over Arizona (southern zone 2, western zone 4 and eastern zone 1), while large portions of the eastern and southern Tier 1 were totally suppressed. A broad area of convection west of Cabo Correntes intensified during the night and spread northeastward toward the lower end of the Gulf of California. This disturbed region may help to push additional low-level moisture up the Gulf. Discontinuous MCSs developed along the Mogollon Rim and southeast Arizona, which then move almost due west into the lower Arizona deserts. Image 3 shows yesterday's cloud-to-ground lightning strikes (CGs) over Arizona and northern Sonora - note that there were more than 17,000 CGs detected! Reports from NWS Tucson and Flagstaff indicated multiple flash flood events, especially over western Pima County (zone 1) where Doppler radar estimated localized totals up to 100mm.
Significant rain amounts yesterday, all in Arizona: Ajo (central Zone 1) 45 mm; Sells (eastern edge of Zone 1) 23 mm; and Tucson (western Zone 4) 33 mm. There were no significant rains reported from SMN for the NAME Tier 1 region. The SMN precipitation map for yesterday is shown in image 4. There were no reports of measurable rain in the New Mexico portion of the Tier 1 region yesterday.
Significant features of note:
¥ MCS developed seemed to be tied to an upper level divergence axis associated with IV#8 just south of Tijuana. 500mb temperatures in this area were also rather cool (<-7C), and low level moisture remains plentiful
¥ WT #26, which has generated considerable convection since Tuesday, has shown signs of additional development. SMN noted satellite imagery which indicates a low level circulation developing near 19.5N/110.0W. See SMN and NHC bulletins.
¥ IV#8 may be starting to tap into either some of this tropical moisture, or moisture from WT#27according to this morning's satellite imagery.
"Model of Choice" from yesterday: The GFS handled northern Tier-I the best. While the SMN MM5 handled zones 7 and 9 best
Current/Day 1 Forecast Update Example:
NAME Current/Day 1 Forecast Update
Date(UTC): 2004/07/30 19:35
Forecaster: Pytlak
Submitted at(UTC): 2004/07/30 19:35
Current:
Valid for 21Z today through 12Z tomorrow. See image 1 for feature map, and image 2 for updated QPF/SigWx:
Significant upswing is still expected over southern Tier I as moisture from WT#26 begins to interact with IV#9 (image 3). After coordination with NHC and SMN, WT#26 may briefly form into a tropical depression, but it will quickly encounter <28C water once it reaches 20N. If anything, the lack of a strong circulation center may allow additional moisture to be shed from the tropical wave instead of concentrating around a circulation center. Farther north, expect precipitation to be lighter and concentrated over far western zone 2 (NW Arizona), while the rest of Arizona is suppressed by a cool boundary layer left over from yesterday's activity. The QPF forecast has been adjust to increase expected precipitation over zones 7 and 8 where multiple MCSs are likely this afternoon which will then track west into the Gulf of California south of Guymas/Empalme.
Significant features of note:
¥ IV#8 will remain nearly stationary near or just west of Baja Norte.
¥ Upper high center over Utah will shift east and expand into the southern U.S. Plains
¥ Two new inverted troughs may be forming, one over Texas, the other over the western Gulf of Mexico. The Texas trough should have more room to develop into a large circulation, while the western Gulf feature could become absorbed into the Texas IV which it continue to develop.
¥ WT #26, will remain strong, with some potential for tropical depression formation between now and Saturday morning. See SMN and NHC bulletins.
¥ WT#27 and 28 will remain south of Tier-I. However moisture from WT#27 may be entrained into southern Tier-I.
¥ An unnumbered cold front extending from central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley appears too far east and too weak to affect eastern Tier-I. Expect continued suppression over zones 3 and 5.
Model(s) of choice: Like yesterday, GFS looks good overall, although SMN MM5 is preferred for QPF in zones 7 and 9.
Day 2 Forecast Example:
NAME Day 2 Forecast Guidance
Date(UTC): 2004/07/30 19:45
Forecaster: Racy
Submitted at(UTC): 2004/07/30 19:45
Forecast guidance:
Valid 12Z tomorrow through 12Z Day 3. See image 1 for feature map, and image 2 for QPF/SigWc):
SMN, HPC and FOC all agree on potential for widespread MCS activity, and perhaps a full MCC, affecting much of central and southern Tier I. If MCSs develop and propagate across the southern end of the Gulf of California, another moisture surge is likely which will spread into zones 1, 2 and 6. It is important to note that areas farther north are already quite moist, so Gulf Surge criteria will not be met. Development is more likely over southern Tier-I, depending on how widespread the convection is today. It is still unclear which developing IV to the east of Tier I will have the greatest impact. However with the northern IV being the larger of the two, and with increasing 200mb winds on it's north side, the northern IV looks more promising. Models are in some disagreement, with the GFS and NGM emphasizing the northern IV, while Eta and SMN MM-5 emphasizing the southern one. Either way, southern and central Tier I will be in strong upper level divergence and/or deformation as the IVs move west, while the persistent IV just west of the Baja Peninsula remains nearly stationary. Best juxtaposition of dry subcloud layers, hottest surface temperatures, and broad upper divergence indicate the greatest threat of high winds, in addition to the heavy rain, will be between the Sierra Madres and the Sonoran coast. WT#26, which may briefly form into a TC (it would be TC#5E), may have already served its purpose in feeding considerable moisture into Tier-I. WT #27 and 28 will pass well to the south, but the persistent IV off the Baja coast may tap more moisture from oe nor both of these waves.
Significant features of note:
¥ IV#8 will remain nearly stationary near or just west of Baja Norte.
¥ A new IV (IV#9) over Texas will drift into the Big Bend area, inducing increasing upper divergence and weakening upper static stability over a broad area of the Sierra Madres.
¥ A new IV (IV#10) may form along the Mexican Gulf Coast, but may eventually be absorbed into IV#10.
¥ Upper high center over Colorado will continue to expand into the southern U.S. Plains
¥ Although Gulf Surge criteria will be met, outflows and pressure differentials will support significant moisture transport into the northern Gulf and eventually the lower deserts of Arizona and SE California.
Model of choice: The GFS is preferred, although its 0.01 QPF area extends too far east into zones 3 and 5.
Day 3-5 and Day 6-10 Outlook Example
NAME Day 3-5 and Day 6-10 Outlooks
Date(UTC): 2004/07/30 19:45
Forecasters: Pytlak (FOC)/Handel (CPC)
Submitted at(UTC): 2004/07/30 19:45
Day 3-5 and Day 6-10 Outlook:
Valid 12Z Day 3 through Day 10.
Day 3-5: No real long-term changes are expected, with Day 3 (Aug 02) expected to remain active in southern and parts of western Tier I. Upper subtropical high over the U.S. southern Plains will continue to feed a series of IVs across central Tier I, with WTs clipping southern Tier I. SMN analyses this morning show at least 6 WTs lined up from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the central Atlantic. Any of these WTs could develop into tropical cyclones with 400-200mb shear over the eastern Pacific expected to remain low. The northwest quarter of Tier I (Zones 3 and 5) are the least likely areas to receive significant thunderstorm activity due to their close proximity to the upper high center. Off the Baja coast, the persistent inverted trough (IV#8), which is more of an extension of the large-scale and seasonal subtropical trough, shows no signs of weakening or being lifted north.
Day 6-10: There is some indication that a weak phase of the MJO will propagate out of the central Pacific and into the NAM region. GFS ensembles at 168 hrs indicate a slight breakdown in the upper ridge over the central U.S.(image 1), which would suggest the possibility of westerly flow impingement over northern Tier-I. See image 2 for the 5- and 30-day moving MJO indices.
VII: Feature Definitions and Depiction Rules
In order to keep track of the key synoptic features affecting the monsoon system, it is important for us to be uniform in labeling, numbering, and defining these features, both in our discussions and our graphical products. The following are refined definitions of the features we will be monitoring and tracking during the NAME Field Campaign:
FF: Synoptic surface fronts, high pressure, or low pressure systems of any character will be indicated on features maps with standard frontal symbology. Area of interest for fronts is entire NAME Tier II region. Fronts will only be numbered if they intrude into Mexico, with the appropriate sequential number assigned by SMN.
Examples of most of the features listed here can be found on the NAME web page under Data Management " 2003 NAME On-Line Field Catalog " Operational Products " Surface Products " GTS Station Plot using "Start/End Dates"
Feature Map Depiction: Standard frontal convention found in JMV "fronts" symbol list. Cold fronts will be numbered if they enter Mexico and SMN numbers them.
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WV: Long-wave or short-wave troughs (including cutoff cyclones at either scale) associated with the polar westerlies. WVs are either quasi-stationary (typical of the long-wave troughs) or have general east to northeastward motion (typical of the short-wave troughs). WVs are not numbered.
An example of a short-wave WV can be found on the 1200 UTC 500 and 200 mb charts for August 3 and 4, 2003. This WV moved northeastward across the NW portions of NAME Tier I, bringing a strong intrusion of very dry Pacific air into the northern third of Tier I.
An example of a long-wave quasi-stationary WV can be found on the 1200 UTC 500 mb charts for August 1 through August 7, 2003. This long-wave was located over the Mississippi Basin, a typical location that is usually accompanied another long-wave quasi-stationary WV along or off the west coast of US.
Feature Map Depiction: Blue "WV" found in the JMV "text" menu. Trough lines extending from core depicted with blue dashed line
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IV: Cyclonic circulation with an InVerted trough moving westward to southwestward across portions of the NAME Tier I region. These are features of the middle and upper-troposphere with maximum vorticity occurring above 500 mb, and are typically "cold core" in nature (i.e. 500mb temps below -6C) These features are numbered as long as they are distinct and translating; number can be dropped if they become stationary or diffuse features. Numbers assigned sequentially by Tucson FOC forecasters. Note that a C/IV may have a WV to its south but we will focus, for numbering, on the cyclonic circulation and the IV. These features can be tracked most easily by using satellite water vapor loops.
Examples of IVs can be found on the 1200 UTC 200 mb charts for: August 15, 2003 when the IV is centered just south of El Paso TX and August 24 when the C/IV is centered over northern MX.
Feature Map Depiction: Red "C" symbol found in JMV "Tropics" symbol menu placed on IV circulation center. Also include Red "IV#" found in the JMV "text" menu, and add appropriate IV number. Trough lines extending from fore depicted with red dashed line
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GS: Gulf of California surge. Formal definitions of Gulf Surge events are limited accordingly to station location and the synoptic setting associated with each surge event. Specifically, any classification of gulf surges observed within the NAME Tier I domain should be considered variable with respect to their proximity to maritime air masses and gulf surge origin, station elevation and topography, diurnal influences, and other varying conditions. These criteria should exclusively be met for Yuma, AZ. and not applied to other stations within NAME Tier I domain.
á Moderate surge:
o Mean 24hr dew point temperature >18C (65°F)
o At least 6hrs with dew point temperatures ≥ 21.1°C (70F)
o Prevailing wind direction 120° to 180°.
These criteria are met on average 8 days a year during the months of July (3.2) and August (4.7).
á Strong surge:
o Mean 24hr dewpoint >18°C (65°F)
o At least 6hrs with dewpoint ≥21.2°C (70°F)
o Prevailing wind direction 120° to 180°.
o Maximum dewpoint temperature ≥23.3°C. (74°F)
On average major surge events occur 5 to 6 days each year during the months of July (1.9) and August (3.9).
á Major surge:
o Mean 24hr dewpoint >18°C (65°F)
o At least 6hrs with dewpoint ≥21.2°C (70°F)
o Prevailing wind direction 120° to 180°.
o Maximum dewpoint temperature >23.3°C (74F)
o Mean 24hr pressure rise >2mb
On average major surge events occur 2 to 3 days each year during the months of July (1.2) and August (1.4).
For Gulf Surge Verification at Yuma, AZ., the following Excel Model can be used to evaluate the magnitude of Gulf Surge events. For classification, GSI values greater than 1.00 indicate gulf surge onsets, with higher values proportional to gulf surge intensity. Index variables and terms described on subsequent reference page.
An interactive version of this spreadsheet example is loaded onto the FOC PCs for your use.
The Tucson FOC will assign sequential numbers to "GS"s.
Distinct examples of GSs are difficult to find during the summer of 2003, but to get some feel for GSs examine: the Emplame 1200 UTC soundings for July 8, 9, and 10 and the 1800 UTC surface plots for July 9 and 10.
The strong surge over the northern Gulf of California, lower Colorado River Basin, and southwest AZ can be examined in the 1500 UTC surface plots on September 3 and 4. This surge is also well-documented in the daily discussions for September 3, 4, and 5 on the web page under "Reports."
Feature Map Depiction: Dark green GS symbol in JMV "text" symbol menu. Add Gulf Surge # as appropriate, and include in parentheses if "MDT," "STG", or "MAJ".
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WT: Tropical or easterly wave (identified as Onda Tropical by SMN) is a lower-level, inverted trough with peak vorticity occurring well below 500mb. "WT"s move generally to the west usually at latitudes south of 20 degrees north. These features are officially identified, located, and tracked by the Tropical Prediction Center. Hovmoeller diagrams, of either satellite imagery or mean meridional wind from the GFS, can be used to monitor "WT"s. The SMN numbers "WT"s sequentially as the waves cross westward across longitude 80 degrees west beginning in May and continuing through the summer.
Examples of WTs in 2003 analyses can be found in image 2 of the discussion for July 18 and also image 2 of the discussion for July 29.
WT # 1 for 2004 moved across Central America and extreme southern Mexico on May 11 and 12.
Feature Map Depiction: Brown solid line found in JMV "Lines" symbol menu. Also include brown "WT#" found in JMV "text" and add appropriate SMN-assigned number.
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TD, TS, H: Indicate all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes within Tier-II. These features are officially identified, numbered/named, located, tracked, and forecast by the Tropical Prediction Center. The numbers of tropical depressions and/or the names of storms and hurricanes will be used on features maps, along with the proper identifier.
An overview of 2003 tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific can be found at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003epac.shtml
Feature map depiction: Standard symbols found on JMV "Tropics" symbol menu. Note that the "dotted circle" will be used for TDs. Also include Red "TD#" found in JMV "text" menu (if a Tropical Depression), or name of storm/hurricane in red text (also found in JMV "text" menu.
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JT: Upper tropospheric wind speed maxima (jets) will be indicated on all features charts for the NAME Tier II region. The location of "JT"s will be indicated by a thick arrow positioned along the axis of maximum speeds. These may be westerly jets at higher latitudes or easterly jets at lower latitudes. The feature charts will indicate "JT"s present in the upper-troposphere, i.e., from 300 to 200 mb. "JT"s are not numbered, but the peak jet speed should be included.
An example of an easterly JT can be found on the 1200 UTC 200 mb charts for August 15 and 16 over extreme southern Mexico.
Feature Map Depiction: Thick purple arrow found in JMV "main" symbol menu. Also include a purple "JT" found in the JMV "text" menu, and add the peak jet speed if it can be easily determined.
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DIF: Regions of pronounced difluence, divergence or stretching deformation of the upper-level wind flow. The area of interest is again from 300 to 200 mb. "DIF" regions are not numbered.
Regions of pronounced difluence were located over NAME Tier I, as indicated by the 1200 UTC 200 mb charts, on August 7 and August 13, 2003.
Feature Map Depiction: Blue DIV line found in JMV "tropics" symbol menu.
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ITCZ: InterTropical Convergence Zone is self explanatory. The SMN routinely identifies the position of the ITCZ on its features charts and the ITCZ will be similarly identified and positioned on NAME features charts.
Refer to image 2 of the discussion for July 18, 2003.
Feature Map Depiction: Orange ITCZ symbol found in JMV "tropics" symbol menu.
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SC: Surface convergence boundary, which can include dry lines and orographically-induced convergence lines, particularly over central Mexico. "SC"s are not numbered.
Self-explanatory. No examples found on the available 2003 graphics.
Feature Map Depiction: Brown trough line found in JMV "Fronts" or "Main" symbol menus.
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A: Upper level high center, usually associated with the subtropical ridge. The high center is typically found on 500 and/or 300mb charts. One or more centers may have auxiliary ridge axes connected to them and to each other.
Feature Map Depection: Blue "A" found in JMV "Tropics" symbol menu. Ridges are depicted using the "ridge" zig-zag line found in JMV "Misc" symbol menu.
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SI: Synoptically-inactive indicates that there are no well-defined synoptic-scale features present. "SI" is not used on features charts but may be used in the QPF forecasts that will be made during summer 2004.
Feature Map Depiction: N/A
QPF/verified precip, MCS, and Significant Weather Maps
The QPF/MCS/Significant Weather Map is meant to be a bit more free form than the features map. This is to allow forecasters to adequately depict significant weather areas within Tier I. These maps will be completed on the Tier-I background map with the 9 forecast zone boundaries included for easier reference. There are some general guides, though:
QPF/precipitation maps will use the same areal average concept used by SMN and the 2003 forecast exercise. Forecasters should only draw isohyets for precip categories 2, 3 and 4:
Category 2 (1-4mm): Green line
Category 3 (4.1-8mm): Green forward hatched area
Category 4 (>8mm): Solid green area
Significant MCS areas, and/or areas with a threat of strong straight line winds (>50kts) large hail (>1.5 cm), considerable blowing dust (visibilities <1nm) should be encircled in a hatched red area. If a particularly active area is expected, the area should be encircled in solid red area.
Appendix A: Frequently used AWIPS text products
Calling up an NWS text product in AWIPS is relatively easy. All text product identifiers can be called using their NWS header. NWS headers generally have a 9-letter system:
CCCNNNXXX
CCC is the "node" office, which in most cases is the liaison office for the whole state or part of a state. The NNN is the 3 letter product identifier, while XXX is the originating office. Because we are in Arizona, we may drop the first 3 letters of our text products since the CCC is assumed to be PHX. The same is true for most NCEP national center products from SPC, CPC, HPC and TPC.
Here are some frequently used products:
NCEP centers:
SWODY1 SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SWODY2 SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SWODY3 SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook
SWOMCD SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion
SEL1, SEL2... SEL9 SPC Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches
STADTS SPC Daily Severe Weather Report Summary for U.S.
TWOEP NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
TWDEP NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
TCDEP1...TCDEP2.. NHC Tropical Cyclone Discussion
TCPEP1...TCPEP2... NHC Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TCMEP1... TCMEP2... NHC Marine Tropical Cyclone Advisory
REPPN1 NHC dropsonde coded data message from eastern Pacific
REPPN2 NHC Aircraft Tropical Cyclone Vortex Data Message from Eastern Pacific
QPFPFD HPC QPF discussion
PREEPD HPC preliminary Day 3-7 Forecast Discussion
PMDEPD HPC final Day 3-7 Forecast Discussion
PMDMRD CPC Day 6-14 Discussion and Tabular Forecast
PMD30D CPC 30 Day Forecast Discussion
PMD90D CPC 90-Day Forecast Discussion
NWS Office Products:
3-letter product identifiers common for all offices (NNN)
AFD: Area Forecast Discussion
HWO: Hazardous Weather Outlook
SPS: Special Weather Statement
RTP: Regional Temperature and Precipitation Summary
MTR: Airport Surface Observations (METARs)
SVR: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TOR: Tornado Warning
FFW: Flash Flood Warning
NPW: Dust Storm Warning; High Wind Watches and Warnings (non-convective); Inland Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings; Heat Advisories, Watches and Warnings
FFA: Flash Flood Watch
SVS: Severe Weather Statement
FLS: Flash Flood Statement/Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisories
FFS: Flash Flood Statement (NM, TX, and rest of NWS Southern Region)
LSR: Local Storm Report
PNS: Public Information Statement
MAN: Mandatory level upper air code (for soundings)
SGL: Significant level upper air code (for soundings)
CCC...XXX 3- letter identifiers for offices involved with NAME:
TWC: Tucson (no CCC node needed)
PSR: Phoenix (no CCC node needed)
FGZ: Flagstaff (no CCC node needed)
LAX...SGX San Diego
RNO...VEF Las Vegas
ABQ...ABQ Albuquerque
LBB...EPZ El Paso
LBB...MAF Midland
SAT...SAT San Antonio
Irregular AWIPS calls ups:
IMXMTR000 Collective of all Mexican METAR sites
IMXMAN000 Collective of all Mexican upper air mandatory data
IMXSGL000 Collective of all Mexican upper air significant level data
LAXMANMYR Upper air mandatory data from San Diego (Miramar)
MANTUS Upper air mandatory data from Tucson
MAN1Y7 Upper air mandatory data from Yuma
RNOMANDRA Upper air mandatory data from Las Vegas (Desert Rock)
SATMANDRT Upper air mandatory data from Del Rio
LAXSWRMX Public collective of Mexican hourly surface reports
PHXSWRAZ Public collective of Arizona hourly surface reports
ABQSWRNM Public collective of New Mexico hourly surface reports
SATSWRTX Public collective of Texas hourly surface reports
Appendix B: Common Spanish Weather Vocabulary
Lluvia: Rain
Lluvia escasa: Very light rain (<5mm)
Lluvia ligera: Light rain (5-10mm)
Lluvia moderada: Moderate rain (10-20mm)
Lluvia fuerte: Heavy rain (20-50mm)
Lluvia muy fuerte Very heavy rain (50-70mm)
Lluvia intensa Intense rain (>70mm)
Tormenta El...ctrica Thunderstorm
Tormenta Severa Thunderstorm with heavy rain (not the same definition as in the U.S.)
Granizo Hail
Viento Wind
Viento Fuerte Strong wind/high wind
Nublados Clouds
Onda Tropical Tropical Wave
Tormenta Tropical Tropical Storm
Inundación Flood
Baja presión Low (pressure)
Alta presión High (pressure)
Frente Front
Convergencia Convergence
Linea de vaguada faint line
Localidades aledañas local vicinity
Desplaza hacia el moving toward the:
Norte north
Este east
Sur south
Oeste west
Appendix C: Coordination Calls (note, these numbers are administratively restricted)
A. Important Phone Numbers:
NAME FOC:
Forecast Ops Center (NWS Tucson)
NWS Tucson main office
Erik Pytlak's Home
NWS National Centers:
NCEP Senior Duty Meteorologist
SPC Mesoscale Desk/Outlook Desk
HPC Forecaster, Day 2 Desk
HPC Medium Range Forecaster
CPC Monitoring Director (see Appendix D)
NHC Hurricane Specialist
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (use JOSS-purchased calling card):
Operations
Fax
Miguel Cortez, Chief of Medium Range Prediction
Rapid Scan Update Requests:
NWS Monterey
NWS Upper Air Contacts:
NWS Tucson
NWS Phoenix
NWS Flagstaff
NWS Las Vegas (for Desert Rock, NV)
NWS San Diego (for Myrimar, CA)
NWS Albuquerque
NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa
NWS Amarillo
NWS Midland
NWS San Antonio (for Del Rio, TX)
SRH Contact (Alton Abernathy)
WRH Contact (Harold Knocke)
Appendix D: CPC Monitoring Director Rotation
Main CPC Phone Number:
Date Monitor Ext
June 6-12 Marco Carrera
June 13-19 Kingtse Mo
June 20-26 Randy Schechter
June 27-July 3 Wayne Higgins
July 4-10 Anthony Artusa
July 11-17 Wayne Higgins
July 18-24 John Janowiak
July 25-31 Tim Eichler
Aug 1-7 Evgeny Yarosh
Aug 8-14 Scott Handel
Aug 15-21 Wei Shi
Aug 22-28 Tim Eichler